Welcome to Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we take a look each week at a recent winner of a race on the Road to the Derby schedule which offers qualifying points for the 1 ¼-mile classic race May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we take a closer look at Speed King, the winner by a length of the $1 million Southwest Stakes Jan. 25 at Oaklawn Park. The Volatile colt earned 20 points toward qualifying for the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. He ranks second on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 25 points in total.

Racing Résumé: Speed King won his debut impressively Nov. 4 in front-running sprint victory at Churchill Downs. He set the pace again as the 2-1 favorite in the $300,000 Remington Park Springboard Mile and faded just a bit in deep stretch to finish second by a half-length to Coal Battle. That Dec. 13 runner-up effort looked even better when Coal Battle won the Smarty Jones Stakes by four lengths at Oaklawn Park Jan. 4, yet Speed King was overlooked at 14.30-1 odds in the Southwest Stakes Jan. 25 and made his doubters pay with a pacesetting win. He opened up a three-length advantage in the stretch and held off fast-closing Sandman by a length.

Speed King set a solid pace through an opening half-mile in :47.82 in the Southwest but he did not finish fast with a final quarter in :26.87 while completing the 1 1/16-mile race in 1:45.86.

Speed Figures: The speed figures for the Southwest came back faster than I expected given the final time and how slowly the race was run in the closing stages. Speed King shows an improving trajectory both with his Equibase Speed Figures (93-95-103) and Beyer Speed Figures (82-84-93). He’s simply faster than most of his peers at this point.

Running Style: Speed King is a confirmed pacesetter who has led by at least a length in each of his three races after the first quarter-mile of the race. Those tactics have been effective on the Kentucky Derby trail – and in the first jewel of the Triple Crown – in recent years, but it requires a 3-year-old with stamina and foundation to pull off a front-running Derby win.

Pedigree Notes: Speed King hails from a family that has produced champion Stellar Wind as well as Grade 1 winners Mor Spirit and Great Hunter, all effective in stakes races at one mile and longer, but I still have some reservations about stamina when evaluating his profile as a Derby candidate. Sire Volatile was a Grade 1-winning sprinter who never competed in a race longer than three-quarters of a mile and Speed King’s dam (mother), Athenian Beauty, won at a mile and 1 1/16 miles on grass. Perhaps he can continue to improve as races get longer, but I think there is reason for concern about his ability to excel at the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby distance.

Derby Potential: Speed King has quite a bit going for him: a win on the main track at Churchill Downs, tactical speed, fast and improving speed figures, and 25 Derby qualifying points in three career starts. He’s a terrific 3-year-old with a bright future. The fact that he was caught in the closing stages of the Springboard Mile and how slowly he completed his final quarter-mile in the Southwest, however, make him tough to endorse right now at 1 ¼ miles on May 3.