This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they previously were.

In the sixth edition of this blog for the 2025 run for the roses, the focus is on the changing landscape of the 3-year-old male division after the last two weeks of action. It was another close call between the top two, but I think Virginia Derby winner American Promise made a bigger jump than Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby victor Owen Almighty.

HEATING UP

American Promise and connections. (Coady Media)

1. American Promise

American Promise made little impact in his first two starts against stakes competition but had posted good Equibase and Beyer Speed Figures for his maiden win Dec. 29, 2024, at Oaklawn Park in his sixth career start. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas likened American Promise to a gangly kid growing into his body in explaining his breakout performance in the Viginia Derby March 15 at Colonial Downs. The Justify colt pressed Grade 1-placed stakes winner Getaway Car early in the one-turn, 1 1/8-mile race, took command on the turn, and surged to a 7 ¾-length romp in a track record time of 1:46.41. The main track was playing very fast on Virginia Derby day, but American Promise crushed the previous record of 1:47.36 set by McCain on Aug. 18, 2021, and earned a 101 Equibase Speed Figure and 95 Beyer Speed Figure. This is a well-bred colt (half-brother to graded stakes winner Hoosier Philly) with significant potential, but I must admit the inconsistency concerns me. He has two wins, one second, and one third in nine starts. His first stakes win was an attention grabber, no doubt, but you can’t completely dismiss unplaced finishes in both the Southwest Stakes and Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes and he did not finish especially well in the Virginia Derby with a final three-eighths of a mile in: 38.02.

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2. Owen Almighty

Owen Almighty’s case for the heating up section is almost the polar opposite of American Promise. While the latter ran very fast early and slowed considerably late, Owen Almighty set an easy pace in the March 8 Tampa Bay Derby through three-quarters of a mile in 1:12.54 and finished exceptionally fast for a 1 1/16-mile dirt race, completing the final quarter-mile in :23.51 and the final furlong in :11.67. He earned a new career-best 98 Equibase Speed Figure and a 92 Beyer Speed Figure, five points better than his previous best. Unlike American Promise, Owen Almighty has never finished worse than second in six starts – he finished first but was disqualified and placed fifth for interference in the Pasco Stakes in January – and consistency is his calling card. Trainer Brian Lynch expressed concerns about distance limitations for the bay colt by champion sprinter Speightstown before the Tampa Bay Derby and reiterated after Owen Almighty’s Grade 3 win that he’s skeptical he can stretch out to 1 ¼ miles for the Kentucky Derby. Speightstown has proved capable of siring quality two-turn racehorses and Owen Almighty’s dam (mother) was a winner at 1 1/16 miles who ran second in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks, but Lynch knows his colt better than anyone and I’m inclined to trust his judgement. That said, I think Owen Almighty is one of the five best dirt 3-year-olds in training right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if he can carry his speed a bit farther and I think he’s going to win some big races this year. If he goes on to the Kentucky Derby he deserves respect, and the Derby indeed appears to be his target as Hunter Rankin, president of owner Flying Dutchmen, said on the latest BloodHorse podcast that the colt would probably make one more start before heading to Louisville.

3. Lion of Justice

There was a clear delineation between the top two and the options for my third selection for the heating up section, so I’ll venture out on a limb here and hype up maiden winner Lion of Justice. The dark bay or brown colt by leading sire Into Mischief set a blistering pace through a half-mile in :45.34 in the fifth race March 15 at Colonial Downs – again, I know the track was exceptionally fast on Virginia Derby day – and finished with a final quarter-mile in :24.64 and a final eighth in :12.42. His winning time of 1:33.87 was just a shade off the track record of 1:33.70 set by Continuation Aug. 16, 2021. Lion of Justice earned a 92 Equibase Speed Figure and a 92 Beyer Speed Figure, the latter a very good number for a career debut. It’s probably way too much to ask of this Brad Cox-trained 3-year-old to come back in a couple of weeks and win a Kentucky Derby prep race in his second start and move on to the run for the roses, but he could be a player on the Triple Crown trail (perhaps the Preakness) if he handles a step up to stakes competition in his next start. Lion of Justice has a terrific two-turn pedigree by Into Mischief out of the Medaglia d’Oro mare Ever So Clever, winner of the 1 1/16-mile Fantasy Stakes in 2017, and he’s got plenty of speed and natural ability. Add this one to your Virtual Stable.

Also eligible: I went through the mental gymnastics of trying to justify Virginia Derby runner-up Render Judgment or Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Chancer McPatrick for the final slot but I just couldn’t get there. Render Judgment moved up to 14^th on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with his runner-up finish at 21-1 odds and vastly outperformed expectations, but he was 7 ¾ lengths behind the winner and that is as close as he has come in four tries on the Derby trail. I just don’t think he’s good enough. With Chancer McPatrick, his second to Owen Almighty in the Tampa Bay Derby was a solid return from a layoff of more than four months that included a minor ankle surgery. It’s terrific to see him back racing and healthy, but I don’t think he improved his Kentucky Derby stock with a 93 Equibase Speed Figure and an 86 Beyer Speed Figure. A multiple Grade 1 winner at 2, Chancer McPatrick’s next start will tell racing fans much more about his chances to be a serious Kentucky Derby candidate. … Accelerize made a nice first impression on the March 8 Tampa Bay Derby undercard with a front-running 7 ¾-length debut win at seven-eighths of a mile. The Omaha Beach colt earned a 100 Equibase Speed Figure and a 91 Beyer Speed Figure and looks like a prospect with loads of potential.

COOLING DOWN

1. Getaway Car

Getaway Car closed out his 2-year-old season with a second to Journalism in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity, a runner-up finish that was flattered when Journalism ran a hole in the wind when winning the DK Horse San Felipe Stakes March 1. Between the Los Alamitos Futurity and the San Felipe, Getaway Car made a strong impression of his own when he fought gamely after being headed in the stretch to defeat Caldera by a nose in the Sunland Park Derby. A Grade 3 winner who was Grade 1-placed as a 2-year-old with a stakes win this season, Getaway Car was the overwhelming 4-5 favorite for the Virginia Derby March 15 and went right to the front in the one-turn, 1 1/8-mile race. He proved no match for 7.40-1 American Promise and faded to finish fourth, beaten by 8 ¾ lengths, and the Equibase Speed Figure (88) was his lowest since a fourth-place finish in the Del Mar Futurity in September 2024. Getaway Car is a nice 3-year-old colt and undoubtedly stakes quality – that much is proven – but I no longer view him as a major player to win the Kentucky Derby. 

2. Patch Adams

This Into Mischief colt has been favored in each of his four career starts and only has one victory to show for it. That 10 ½-length maiden win Nov. 30, 2024, at Churchill Downs was the type of runaway victory that spins up the hype machine and many racing analysts pegged him as a serious candidate for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately, he has not moved forward as a 3-year-old with a pair of fourth-place finishes, first as the 4-5 favorite in the $1 million Southwest Stakes Jan. 25 and most recently as the 1.90-1 top betting choice in the Tampa Bay Derby March 8. In the Tampa Bay Derby, Patch Adams was within a few lengths of pacesetting winner Owen Almighty early but gave way and finished 10 ½ lengths back. Patch Adams’ dam (mother), Well Humored, was a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles and he’s by leading sire Into Mischief, so I don’t think the issue is necessarily distance limitations, but a cut back in distance might be worth a shot and he looks like a colt who would benefit from a confidence builder against easier competition.  

3. Rapture

He was the wise-guy pick for the Virginia Derby coming off a dominant 6 ½-length romp going 1 1/16 miles Jan. 25 at Oaklawn Park for top trainer Brad Cox and went off as the 1.90-1 second betting choice in the 1 1/8-mile race. It looks like it might have been a case of too much, too soon for the Uncle Mo colt who was never really in contention and finished sixth of seven, nine lengths behind winner American Promise. In terms of the Kentucky Derby, the Virginia Derby was a litmus test for Rapture and he was not up to the task. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was given another shot on the Derby trail, but I think maybe he’s still got some maturing to do mentally and physically and could be another who might excel against less formidable opposition and come out better for it.