Welcome to Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we’ll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail, usually from the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule that offers qualifying points to the first race in the series. The 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve will be held May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we’ll take a closer look at Cyclone State, the 3 ½-length winner of the $150,000 Jerome Stakes Jan. 4 at Aqueduct. The McKinzie colt earned his first 10 points toward qualifying for the 2025 Kentucky Derby and currently ranks 12^th on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

Racing Résumé: After an inauspicious start to his career – two unplaced finishes in sprints and another on the grass – Cyclone State has put together four straight quality starts at one mile on dirt. The first of the sequence was a race slated for the turf that was switched to a main track rated as good due to rain, and Cyclone State set the pace and faded to second in the maiden special weight race Sept. 28, 2024, at Aqueduct.

Since then, the McKinzie colt has won three straight one-mile races at Aqueduct.

Cyclone State led from start to finish in a 2 ½-length maiden win Nov. 3 and in a 2 ¾-length score in a Dec. 6 optional claiming race. The Jerome Stakes was his stakes debut and thus a significant class test. He again dueled for the lead and opened a 1 ½-length advantage through a half-mile in :47.25. Cyclone State spurted clear to an eight-length lead in early stretch and coasted home a 3 ½-length winner as the third betting choice in the seven-horse field.

“He just kind of continued the trajectory he’s been on over the last several starts. I think there is no doubt that he has some ability and speed,” trainer Chad Summers said after the Jerome. “How far he’ll go, and everything else like that, we are going to find out.”

Neither the winning time of 1:40.82 nor Cyclone State’s final quarter-mile in :27.62 were anything to write home about, and frankly the final eighth of a mile in :14.41 is downright slow for a one-mile dirt race. Cyclone State did finish better in his previous two wins, especially in the maiden win, so perhaps he lost focus after building a massive advantage in the Jerome.

Needless to say, 3-year-olds don’t win the Kentucky Derby finishing that slowly in the Churchill Downs stretch.

Speed Figures: Despite how slow the closing fractions were in the Jerome, Cyclone State earned a new career-top 96 Equibase Speed Figure and 84 Beyer Speed Figure for the win. The former was an eight-point improvement while the latter marked a two-point jump. The speed figures are trending positively, but he will need to improve to win as the competition gets stronger.

Running Style: Given all of his best races have come when setting the pace, Cyclone State looks like a pacesetter/pace-presser. While he had company on the inside early in the Jerome, he did not get rank, tug and pull, or anything that would indicate he is a need-the-lead type. I expect he could settle in and press fairly comfortably if necessary but Cyclone State does appear to prefer to be on or very close to the lead in his races. We will see how that affects him when faced with faster opponents intent on setting a significantly swifter tempo.

Connections: Cyclone State was a $70,000 purchase out of the 2023 Keeneland September yearling sale. He is owned by the partnership of Al Gold’s Gold Square, George Messina, and Michael Lee. Gold is best known for racing Cyberknife, the multiple Grade 1 winner Gold named after a life-saving tool that helped him overcome prostate cancer. Messina and Lee have been involved in multiple partnerships together.

Luis Rivera Jr. and Chad Summers. (Walter Wlodarczyk/NYRA)

Trainer Chad Summers conditioned two-time Dubai Golden Shaheen winner Mind Your Biscuits, a multiple graded stakes winner in the U.S. Summers also trained Grade 2 winner Clapton while amassing eight stakes wins since taking out his license in 2017.

Jockey Luis Rivera Jr. is one of three riders for Cyclone State in his seven starts to date and has been aboard for all three of his victories. Rivera, who took out his jockey’s license in 2023, earned his second career stakes win in the Jerome.

Pedigree Notes: Cyclone State is from the first crop of McKinzie, a Grade 1 winner at ages 2, 3, and 4 and a graded stakes winner in each of his four seasons of racing. He has sired in his first crop multiple Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick, Grade 1 winner Scottish Lassie, and multiple Grade 1-placed winners Quickick and McKinzie Street. He’s off to a strong start to his second career as a stallion.

Grade 3-placed multiple stakes winner Chanel’s Legacy, by Dominus, is the dam (mother) of Cyclone State. Her stakes wins came at distances ranging from six furlongs to a mile.

It’s not the flashiest pedigree, but there is class in the first generation and enough stamina here to warrant reasonable expectations that Cyclone State could handle 1 ¼ miles.

Derby Potential: Summers said Cyclone State will be considered for the one-mile, $1.5 million Saudi Derby on Feb. 22 at King Abdulaziz Racecourse as well as the one-mile, $300,000 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 1, a 50-point qualifying race for the Kentucky Derby.

Cyclone State appears to be on an upward trajectory but at this point I’m not sold on him as a viable Kentucky Derby contender for several reasons. He needs to make significant gains in terms of speed figures, I’m not sure he beat much in terms of quality in the Jerome, and I didn’t like how slowly he finished in that race. My opinion could absolutely change with a breakout performance in his next race, but for now I’m comfortable asking Cyclone State to prove me wrong as he progresses on the 2025 Kentucky Derby trail.