The fields for the 14 races that comprise the Breeders’ Cup World Championships really begin to come into focus in summer and fall. This regular feature will offer a snapshot profile of one of the previous weekend’s standout stars, usually a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series winner, and whether I’m buying or selling their chances to win Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar.

This week we take a closer look at Subsanador after his thrilling victory by a head in the $1 million California Crown Stakes Presented by SirDavis American Whisky Sept. 28 at Santa Anita Park, which earned him an expenses-paid berth in the $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Nov. 2 at Del Mar.

Accomplishments: Subsanador was a three-time Group 1 winner in his native Argentina and the 2023 champion 2-year-old colt, winning seven of his 12 races in South America before coming to the United States in 2023 and first joining the barn of John Sadler.

It can be difficult to predict how successful South American racehorses will adapt to racing in the U.S., but Subsanador showed significant potential in his second stateside start for Sadler. He finished second by a head after setting the pace in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Presented by Yaamava’ Resort & Casino March 3, 2024.

Subsanador was purchased privately after that race by Wathnan Racing from Carlos Alejandro Vazquez’s Stud Facundito and transferred to Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella. His first race for his new connections was a disappointing fourth as Subsanador faded from pressing the pace in second to finish 6 ¾ lengths behind winner Mr Fisk in the Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes.

Mandella gave him a brief freshening after that race and he’s turned in two terrific starts since returning while using different tactics.

Subsanador stalked the pace from fourth in the $248,500 Philip H. Iselin Stakes Aug. 17 at Monmouth Park and rallied powerfully to win by 1 ½ lengths while ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith for the first time. In the 1 1/16-mile Iselin, Subsanador displayed impressive finishing speed when completing the final eighth of a mile in :12.38 and a final quarter-mile in :24.58, according to Equibase data.

The big question entering the California Crown Stakes was could Subsanador duplicate a career-best race? If so, he looked like a major contender –  and his response was a resounding yes.

Subsanador again raced in fourth early and then battled gamely between Bob Baffert’s National Treasure on his inside and Newgate on the outside to win by a head at 6.10-1 odds under Smith. Subsanador’s finishing speed again was a great asset as he completed the final eighth of a mile in. :12.40 and the final quarter-mile in :24.83 to prevail, both very fast times given an honest half-mile pace of :47.19 set in a 1 1/8-mile race.

“We saw a lot of courage yesterday,” Mandella said Sunday. “He was in tight. We hadn’t had him in that position before, so it was really nice to see him fight that hard.”

Subsanador (center) wins a thriller. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Speed Figures: Subsanador earned a career-top 124 Equibase Speed Figure for the Iselin Stakes win and a 123 for the California Crown, essentially pairing figures. Likewise, he earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure for both races. Provided Subsanador emerges from the race in good order – and Mandella said he was “doing great” Sunday morning – he stands a good chance to deliver a similar quality race in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic with a very real chance to take a step forward. This looks like a serious racehorse.

Looking Ahead: The leading contender in the eyes of many experts for the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic is 3-year-old Fierceness, the DraftKings Travers Stakes winner. Fierceness is an elite talent but he has not faced older horses and has shown a tendency to be inconsistent throughout his two seasons of racing.

There are several quality Japanese horses under consideration, but neither Ushba Tesoro nor Derma Sotogake won their final prep for the Longines Classic, finishing second and fifth, respectively, in the Nippon TV Hai Sept. 25 at at Funabashi Race Track. Forever Young has not raced since finishing third in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve May 4, and is scheduled to return in an Oct. 2 prep in his home country, the Japan Dirt Classic.

European star City of Troy has the talent to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but he’s never raced on a dirt track.

Subsanador just defeated quite a few of the best older horses in training in the California Crown. Sure, he has yet to race at Del Mar and is winless in two tries at 1 ¼ miles, although he ran a strong race when second in the aforementioned Santa Anita Handicap (111 Equibase Speed Figure, 99 Beyer), but he is battle-tested and fast.

With the Hall of Fame tandem of Mandella and Smith behind him, tactical speed, terrific form, and strong speed figures there really is much to like in evaluating Subsanador’s chances Nov. 2 at Del Mar. He would be my pick to win the Classic if it was being held today, so I am enthusiastically buying Subsanador stock.