Veteran Horse Racing Writers Analyze the 2023 Kentucky Derby

Racing
Tapit Trice Verifying Blue Grass Stakes Kentucky Derby Contenders
Tapit Trice, left in the fuchsia and yellow silks, edged Verifying to win the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and both should be key players in the 2023 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve May 6 at Churchill Downs. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Bob Ehalt and Tom Pedulla became fast friends when they met on their first day at Fordham Preparatory School in the Bronx, N.Y., in 1970. Bob soon introduced Tom to the joys of Thoroughbred racing.

They have endured some rough moments at the track, with Tom taking exception when Bob repeatedly smacks him on the back with a program as one of their horses launches an all-out drive. Much to Tom’s chagrin and the amusement of onlookers, Bob has been known to call for security as he proceeds to cash a $27 triple.

weekend Television schedule

Friday, May 5: 10:30 a.m.-6:30 p.m. on FS2; 1-6 p.m. on USA Network; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, May 6: 10:30 a.m.-6:30 p.m. on FS2; noon-7:30 p.m. on NBC; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, May 7: 2-6:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

They have owned a number of horses together and were part of the group that owned 1998 Whitney Handicap runner-up Tale of the Cat. They are often seen carrying on as if they never left their teenage years.

Below is their take on the 149th Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve Saturday at Churchill Downs. PLEASE NOTE: A flurry of late scratches including champion Forte, Runhappy Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move and third-place finisher SkinnerWood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino winner Lord Miles, and UAE Derby Sponsored by Atlantis the Royal third-place finisher Continuar dramatically changed the complexion of the Derby field in the last 72 hours before the race.:

PEDULLA: With most eyes on favored Forte (Note: Forte was scratched from the Kentucky Derby May 6), the pick here is his stablemate Tapit Trice. Bob, Tapit Trice’s habit of getting away from the gate slowly concerns me in a 20-horse field. But Luis Saez is the aggressive rider he needs and, once underway, he swallows up ground. We know the will to win is there with the way he outfought Verifying down the stretch of the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. That performance and the pedigree suggest that, while others are faltering, he gets the mile and a quarter with ease.

EHALT: You know, Thomas, it’s hard to believe that it was 50 years ago when we were on a weekend religious retreat and I was flabbergasted to find out the house did not have a television or radio so I could watch-hear Secretariat’s Derby. As I recall you were too mesmerized by scones to even think about the Derby. On my own, I needed heavenly intervention and found it after I made up an excuse about going on a nature walk and, while humming “Tie a Yellow Ribbon Around the Ole Oak Tree,” wound up stumbling upon a tavern in Dobbs Ferry, N.Y. There, the barkeep was kind enough to let me watch the race – with a parade of free Coca-Colas – after I correctly answered some questions about the race to prove I was not another under-age kid in search of alcohol. So in honor that “heavenly” day, I’m taking, who else, Angel of Empire. Aside from the karma of 50 years ago, I also think he is on the right trajectory with wins in the Arkansas Derby and Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque Crescent City Ford and has the stamina to handle the distance. I also believe Brad Cox is destined to win the Derby the conventional way and this should be the year.

PEDULLA: An almost equally strong case can be made for Angel of Empire. I had my doubts about him after he won the Risen Star. His burst to win the Arkansas Derby by 4 ¼ lengths certainly sold me that he is a prime contender here. It felt as though he created daylight in the blink of an eye for jockey Flavien Prat. And we both know that trainer Brad Cox sure knows how to get horses ready for a big day.

EHALT: It was tough not to pick Forte (Note: Forte was scratched from the Kentucky Derby May 6). Very tough. He has done nothing but win in his last five starts but he does not have the big edge in speed figures that you would expect from such an obvious favorite. So, I will be using him heavily in the exotics, but avoiding a win bet. It’s difficult to imagine him not finishing in the top three.

PEDULLA: Unquestionably, Japanese connections have made tremendous strides in international competition. I have to think it is only a matter of time before a Japan-based horse wins the Derby. I do not think this will be the year. Derma Sotogake controlled the UAE Derby Sponsored by Atlantis the Royal by 5 ½ lengths and Japan-based horses snagged the top four positions in that race. How many times has the UAE Derby been a springboard to Kentucky Derby success? Never.

Derma Sotogake Kentucky Derby Churchill Downs
Derma Sotogake at Churchill Downs. (Coady Photography)

EHALT: I’m with you. I’ve got Derma Sotogake third in my picks and it’s all out of respect to the international success of Japanese horses. All of the past failures by Japanese horses and UAE Derby runners mean nothing to me. Japan’s stock in racing has soared in the last few years. Aside from landing in the trifecta, I would not be surprised if either Derma Sotogake or Continuar (Note: Continuar was scratched from the Kentucky Derby May 5), the other Japanese starter, win. Seeing how another Japanese horse, Mandarin Hero, lost by a nose in the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, if Derma Sotogake is better than “Hero” what does that tell you? It tells me to use him in my bets.

PEDULLA: As impressive as Forte (Note: Forte was scratched from the Kentucky Derby May 6) has been in winning six of seven starts and sweeping both of his races this year, I am playing to beat him. It says plenty that only two horses that won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile were able to tack on the Derby. That’s quite a body of history to overcome. I have to believe the connections would have preferred an easier race compared to the acid test they got in the Florida Derby, which required a prolonged run to get to the top from an awful outside post.

EHALT: After the Rich Strike shocker last year, I had to add a big price. I toyed with Continuar, but landed on Reincarnate. I loved his race in the Rebel when he was a troubled third and I’m willing to draw line through his fourth in the Arkansas Derby. Why? He’s 50-1. Why else? See you at the Preakness.

2023 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve
May 6th, 2023

Winning Time: 2:01.57
  • Purse: $3,000,000
  • Distance: 1 1/4 Miles
  • Age: 3 yo
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Winning Time: 2:01.57
Results
Win
Place
Show
1st
8 Mage
$32.42
$14.58
$9.08
2nd
3 Two Phil's
$10.44
$6.52
3rd
14 Angel of Empire
$4.70
4th
11 Disarm
5th
1 Hit Show
6th
17 Derma Sotogake (JPN)
7th
5 Tapit Trice
8th
16 Raise Cain
9th
18 Rocket Can
10th
4 Confidence Game
11th
13 Sun Thunder
12th
22 Mandarin Hero (JPN)
13th
7 Reincarnate
14th
6 Kingsbarns
15th
23 King Russell
16th
2 Verifying
17th
12 Jace's Road
18th
21 Cyclone Mischief
Scratches
Payoff
Pick 3
7-5-8
7-5-8
$41
Pick 3
3YO 9-14-8
3YO 9-14-8
$15,673
Pick 3
OAKS/FRSTR/DERBY 14-5-8
OAKS/FRSTR/DERBY 14-5-8
$510
Pick 4
14-1/2/7-2/4/5-8
14-1/2/7-2/4/5-8
$1,318
Pick 5
9-14-1/2/7-2/4/5-8
9-14-1/2/7-2/4/5-8
$17,538
Pick 5
ALL DIRT 5-6-9-1/2/7-8/9/10/15
ALL DIRT 5-6-9-1/2/7-8/9/10/15
$3,757
Pick 6
OAKS/DERBY (SEE FOOTNOTE)
OAKS/DERBY (SEE FOOTNOTE)
$334,154
Pick 6
OAKS/DERBY (SEE FOOTNOTE)
OAKS/DERBY (SEE FOOTNOTE)
$1,221
Pick 6 Jackpot
1-9-14-1/2/7-2/4/5-8
1-9-14-1/2/7-2/4/5-8
$1,094,232
Daily Double
5-8
5-8
$58
Daily Double
OAKS/DERBY 14-8
OAKS/DERBY 14-8
$183
Exacta
8-3
8-3
$330
Consolation Pick 3
OAKS/DERBY 14-15
OAKS/DERBY 14-15
$9
Consolation Pick 3
3YO 9-4-8
3YO 9-4-8
$284
Consolation Pick 3
OAKS/FRSTR/DERBY 14-5-15
OAKS/FRSTR/DERBY 14-5-15
$20
Future Wager
POOL 6 - 22
POOL 6 - 22
$96
Future Wager
POOL 5 EX 22-37
POOL 5 EX 22-37
$7,863
Future Wager
POOL 4 - 28
POOL 4 - 28
$100
Future Wager
POOL 1 EX 40-19
POOL 1 EX 40-19
$56
Future Wager
POOL 2 - 40
POOL 2 - 40
$4
Future Wager
SIRE 16
SIRE 16
$53
Future Wager
POOL 3 EX 40-35
POOL 3 EX 40-35
$801
Future Wager
OAKS/DERBY DBL 29-22
OAKS/DERBY DBL 29-22
$1,100
Future Wager
POOL 2 EX 40-11
POOL 2 EX 40-11
$170
Future Wager
POOL 5 - 22
POOL 5 - 22
$154
Future Wager
POOL 3 - 40
POOL 3 - 40
$7
Future Wager
POOL 4 EX 28-37
POOL 4 EX 28-37
$22,080
Future Wager
POOL 1 - 40
POOL 1 - 40
$4
Future Wager
SIRE EX 16-18
SIRE EX 16-18
$7,157
Future Wager
POOL 6 EX 22-37
POOL 6 EX 22-37
$3,881
Superfecta
8-3-14-11
8-3-14-11
$15,644
Super High Five
8-3-14-11-1
8-3-14-11-1
$194,923
Trifecta
8-3-14
8-3-14
$491
Payoff
Pick 3
7-5-8
7-5-8
$41
Pick 3
3YO 9-14-8
3YO 9-14-8
$15,673
Pick 3
OAKS/FRSTR/DERBY 14-5-8
OAKS/FRSTR/DERBY 14-5-8
$510
Pick 4
14-1/2/7-2/4/5-8
14-1/2/7-2/4/5-8
$1,318
Pick 5
9-14-1/2/7-2/4/5-8
9-14-1/2/7-2/4/5-8
$17,538
Pick 5
ALL DIRT 5-6-9-1/2/7-8/9/10/15
ALL DIRT 5-6-9-1/2/7-8/9/10/15
$3,757
Pick 6
OAKS/DERBY (SEE FOOTNOTE)
OAKS/DERBY (SEE FOOTNOTE)
$334,154
Pick 6
OAKS/DERBY (SEE FOOTNOTE)
OAKS/DERBY (SEE FOOTNOTE)
$1,221
Pick 6 Jackpot
1-9-14-1/2/7-2/4/5-8
1-9-14-1/2/7-2/4/5-8
$1,094,232
Daily Double
5-8
5-8
$58
Daily Double
OAKS/DERBY 14-8
OAKS/DERBY 14-8
$183
Exacta
8-3
8-3
$330
Consolation Pick 3
OAKS/DERBY 14-15
OAKS/DERBY 14-15
$9
Consolation Pick 3
3YO 9-4-8
3YO 9-4-8
$284
Consolation Pick 3
OAKS/FRSTR/DERBY 14-5-15
OAKS/FRSTR/DERBY 14-5-15
$20
Future Wager
POOL 6 - 22
POOL 6 - 22
$96
Future Wager
POOL 5 EX 22-37
POOL 5 EX 22-37
$7,863
Future Wager
POOL 4 - 28
POOL 4 - 28
$100
Future Wager
POOL 1 EX 40-19
POOL 1 EX 40-19
$56
Future Wager
POOL 2 - 40
POOL 2 - 40
$4
Future Wager
SIRE 16
SIRE 16
$53
Future Wager
POOL 3 EX 40-35
POOL 3 EX 40-35
$801
Future Wager
OAKS/DERBY DBL 29-22
OAKS/DERBY DBL 29-22
$1,100
Future Wager
POOL 2 EX 40-11
POOL 2 EX 40-11
$170
Future Wager
POOL 5 - 22
POOL 5 - 22
$154
Future Wager
POOL 3 - 40
POOL 3 - 40
$7
Future Wager
POOL 4 EX 28-37
POOL 4 EX 28-37
$22,080
Future Wager
POOL 1 - 40
POOL 1 - 40
$4
Future Wager
SIRE EX 16-18
SIRE EX 16-18
$7,157
Future Wager
POOL 6 EX 22-37
POOL 6 EX 22-37
$3,881
Superfecta
8-3-14-11
8-3-14-11
$15,644
Super High Five
8-3-14-11-1
8-3-14-11-1
$194,923
Trifecta
8-3-14
8-3-14
$491

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