Welcome to 2023 Triple Crown Prospect Profiles – updated after the first jewel of the Triple Crown from the previous title of Kentucky Derby Hopeful Snapshots – where we’ll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail.

This week we’ll take a closer look at Arcangelo, winner of the $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes May 13, and assess his chances in the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets June 10 at Belmont Park.

Racing Résumé: Jon Ebbert purchased Arcangelo for $35,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September yearling sale, which seems like a significant chunk of change on the surface but was significantly below the $65,000 median price and $132,045 average price for that auction in which the top-priced yearling (1-year-old) sold for $1.7 million.

Ebbert’s Blue Rose Farm has enjoyed a nice return on that investment after the Arrogate colt won for the second time in four starts when he edged Bishops Bay by a head in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes in his stakes debut at Belmont Park.

According to trainer Jena Antonucci, Arcangelo needed some time to develop into a racehorse; he did not make his first start until Dec. 17, 2022 at Gulfstream Park.

“Mr. Ebbert has done a great job to give the horse time and let him mature. He’s a May foal. We never had a focus on doing early season. We let the horse grow and mature and here we are,” Antonucci said after the Peter Pan victory. “He breezed at Saratoga last summer, but we were never intending to run up there. It’s all been about education and him maturing and figuring out who he is. He’s still a kid figuring it out.”

Arcangelo finished second in his December debut sprinting on a sloppy track and then ran fourth at Gulfstream in January going a mile on a fast main track. He was beaten by 2 ¾ lengths in both races.

Arcangelo secured his first win March 18 at Gulfstream, where he used a stalking trip to seize command near the eighth pole before pulling away to win by 3 ½ lengths with a very fast final quarter-mile and final eighth of a mile (approximately :12.10).

That victory encouraged Arcangelo’s connections enough to test him against stakes competition in the Peter Pan and the promising 3-year-old aced the 1 1/8-mile exam with a gutsy win.

Arcangelo raced just off the pace and rallied about four or five paths wide on the turn – the Peter Pan is a one-turn, 1 1/8-mile race on Belmont’s 1 ½-mile main track – before engaging Bishops Bay in early stretch. Arcangelo took the lead briefly but Bishops Bay battled back and pushed about a neck in front near the sixteenth pole; however, Arcangelo would not be denied and fought back on the outside to win a thriller.

Speed Figures: Arcangelo matched his career-best 97 Equibase Speed Figure in the Peter Pan, equaling the number he got for his maiden win in March. He would need to improve that by about 10 to 15 points to be a win candidate in the Belmont Stakes.

His 97 Beyer Speed Figure paints a more optimistic picture as that number is much closer to the best of this division. Mage earned a 105 for winning the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve May 6 while National Treasure earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure for his Preakness Stakes win May 20. National Treasure will return for the Belmont Stakes while Mage will rest up for a summer campaign. A small step forward in terms of Beyer Speed Figure would place Arcangelo squarely in the hunt for a Belmont Stakes win.

Running Style: Arcangelo has raced just a couple of lengths off the pace early in his three starts at one mile or longer and profiles as a stalker type. In fact, he looked pretty eager to accelerate under jockey Javier Castellano on the backstretch of the Peter Pan while tracking a leisurely pace. Expect him to settle just in behind the speed horses and try to get a jump on closers like Forte, Angel of Empire, and Tapit Trice while aiming to avoid a ton of ground loss at the marathon 1 ½-mile distance.

Arcangelo and Castellano after the Peter Pan. (Susie Raisher/NYRA)

Connections: If you like cheering for under-the-radar connections, Arcangelo might be the Belmont Stakes horse for you. Jon Ebbert’s Blue Rose Farm earned its first career graded stakes win when Arcangelo scored in the Peter Pan and it marked just the second graded stakes win for trainer Jena Antonucci, whose lone previous graded victory came with Doctor J Dub in the 2016 Turf Monster Stakes at Parx Racing.

Antonucci earned her first win as a trainer in March 2010 at Tampa Bay Downs. Antonucci grew up riding horses as she climbed aboard for the first time at age 3, and she got her start in the Thoroughbred racing industry in Hall of fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas’ program at Padua Stables, where she focused on breaking and training young Thoroughbreds. Breaking refers to the process of training a young horse to wear a bridle and saddle, carry a rider, and respond to a rider’s commands.

Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano, who guided Mage to victory in the Kentucky Derby, will ride Arcangelo in the Belmont Stakes. Castellano is a four-time Eclipse Award winner as outstanding jockey in North America and has also won the Preakness twice with Bernardini (2006) and Cloud Computing (2017). A win in the Belmont Stakes would complete a career sweep of the U.S. Triple Crown races for Castellano.

Pedigree Notes: Arcangelo, Italian for Archangel, is from the second of only three crops for 2016 champion 3-year-old male Arrogate, best known for a dazzling string of wins that included the 2016 Travers Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic and 2017 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes and Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates. Arrogate died of a neurological illness at age 7. Arrogate’s best runners to date include 2022 Longines Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath and Grade 1 winners Cave Rock, And Tell Me Nolies, and Fun to Dream.

“My phone has been ringing and I’ve been saying no [to potential buyers]. There are none left,” Ebbert told BloodHorse regarding the limited Arrogate’s runners. “He’s a one-of-a-kind horse. We’re not going to get another one [like him]. We love the horse. We love his heart. We know he’s all business.”

Arrogate boasted speed and the ability to carry it a long way, and Arcangelo also gets a significant dose of stamina from the bottom half of his pedigree as he hails from the family of 2006 Belmont Stakes winner Jazil and 2007 Belmont Stakes-winning filly Rags to Riches, both produced by Arcangelo’s third dam (maternal great-grandmother), Better Than Honour, the 2007 Broodmare of the Year.

Arcangelo was produced by unraced Modeling, who is by powerful stamina influence Tapit. While Modeling did not race, she is a half-sibling (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to stakes winners Streaming, Treasuring, and Cascading. Streaming was a Grade 1 winner at 1 1/16 miles.

Belmont Stakes Potential: There are quite a few check marks that Arcangelo ticks as a Belmont Stakes contender. He owns a win on the main track at Belmont Park in the Peter Pan Stakes, a race that Keeler Johnson noted is responsible for three Belmont Stakes winners since 2010.

Arcangelo also is a lightly raced horse on the rise who could take a step forward after back-to-back wins in which he finished very fast. His final eighth of a mile in the Peter Pan Stakes was a snappy :12.12 and Arcangelo’s pedigree seems to indicate he should be able to handle more distance, although 1 ½ miles in June is a major challenge for all 3-year-olds. Additionally, Arcangelo has a high enough cruising speed to stay closer to the pace than some of his rivals.

I really respect the quality of the Belmont Stakes opposition in champion Forte, Preakness winner National Treasure, Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Angel of Empire, and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes winner Tapit Trice, but I’m taking Arcangelo to win in an upset.