New York racing relocates back downstate to its temporary fall home at Aqueduct as the 2023 Belmont at the Big A race meet is ready to commence on Sept. 14. The traditional Belmont Park fall meet, filled with big purses and loaded with important races, will again be held at Aqueduct in 2023 for a 28-day season that will run four days a week through Sunday, Oct. 29.

While Belmont Park’s renovation project continues, racing fans can expect the usual high-class day in and day out New York fall racing they’d expect to find at Belmont, but at The Big A instead. The meet will host 40 stakes that will offer purses of $8.78 million and include three Grade 1 races and six Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” races.

Racing at Belmont at the Big A might lack some of the glamour and prestige of the annual New York summer meet at Saratoga, but the quality of the racing and wagering you will find at Belmont at the Big A will not be much of a comedown for horseplayers, who will still enjoy the fall season’s best racing and wagering. Belmont at the Big A will have plenty to offer horseplayers, including top 2-year-old racing, the best turf racing of the season, and the extensive above-mentioned fall stakes program.

Belmont at the Big A Handicapping Trends

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For the average horseplayer, handicapping at Aqueduct can may be an easier assignment than winning at Saratoga. Field sizes are good but will be somewhat smaller than they were at Saratoga, especially on the dirt.

In dirt routes run at the 2022 Belmont at the Big A meet including races at one mile, speed was the best running style to bet with horses racing on or close to the pace (leading or within 1.5 lengths of the early lead) winning 40 of the 68 races for 59%. Speed horses from the three inside posts did particularly well.

In dirt sprints, early speed was also an advantage at Belmont at the Big A in 2022 with horses racing on or close to the pace winning 64 of the 93 dirt sprints for 69%. Conversely, just nine of the 93 dirt sprints run in 2022 were won by horses coming from more than four lengths behind.

Post positions are amazingly fair on the Aqueduct main track. In a 1299-race sample of dirt routes from Nov. 2017 to last year, every dirt route post position has won for nearly the same win percentage – all in the 12-16% range. Posts 9 and outward are rarely used. In dirt sprints it’s more of the same, with every post position in the 1927-race sample winning between at between 10% for post 11 and 16% for post 4.

Aqueduct’s main track does often show itself to be at the mercy of anti-inside track biases. The winning track profile on the Aqueduct main track often plays against inside running paths, so you should factor that into your handicapping as the Big A meet begins. An example of this was at the 2022 meet when the majority of Belmont at the Big A dirt sprints were won from the middle posts 4-6, which accounted for 49 of the 93 dirt sprint winners for 53%. This is in contrast to inside posts 1-3 which won 34 of the 93 races (37%) and horses from outside posts 7 and outward which won 10 of the 93 races (11%).

Belmont at the Big A Turf Tips

Turf sprinting at last year’s meet. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Aqueduct features two turf courses, the main turf course and the inner turf in the space where the old inner dirt track used to be. Turf sprints are run at six furlongs on the outer course, which also runs races at one mile, 1 1/16 miles, 1 1/8 miles, and the occasional 1 3/16 miles. Inner turf races are run at one mile, 1 1/16 miles, 1 1/8 miles, 1 3/8 miles, and 1 ½ miles.

In Aqueduct turf routes, the inside two post positions are the best places to be with win percentages of 16% and 14% respectively in a 321-race sample dating back to 2017. Horses also have fair chances from middle and outside posts, and no turf route post position all the way out to 12 has been an overwhelming disadvantage. This means you can look for live overlays from the outside posts in Big A turf routes, because bettors often downgrade outside horses in turf routes.

At the Belmont at the Big A meet in 2022, the turf course showed absolutely no bias whatsoever in terms of a preferential running style, with the 54 turf routes at the meet being won by equal numbers of frontrunners on or close to the lead (18 wins, 33%), pace pressers and stalkers between 1 ½ lengths and four lengths off the pace (18 wins, 33%), and closers from four-plus lengths off the pace (18 wins, 33%). In total, 26 of the 54 winners broke from posts 1-3, making that the only real advantage at the 2022 meet in turf routes.

In terms of the horses arriving from Saratoga, keep in mind that horses from inside posts 1-3 dominated in inner turf routes this past season at Saratoga, winning 53% of the 66 races. This was in sharp contrast to the 22 outer turf course routes where outside-drawn horses from posts 7 and outward won 10 of the 22 races (45%). When you see horses exiting Saratoga turf losses where they suffered from bad posts on either course, upgrade those horses at Aqueduct if they draw a better post.

Big A Turf Sprints

In turf sprints run at the Big A, the inside horses tend to do well, and horses breaking from posts 1-6 have the best win percentages. The rail horse won 15% of Big A turf sprints from a 186-race sample up through last year.

Specifically at the Belmont at the Big A meet in 2022, however, it was the outside posts that did the best in the meet’s 41 turf sprints. Fifteen of the 41 winners came from middle posts 4-6, and 15 of the winners broke from posts 7 and outward despite the fact there were fewer overall starters from those posts. In terms of running styles in the 2022 turf sprints, speed was king with horses racing on or close to the pace winning 23 of the 41 races (56%). Horses closing from more than four lengths behind won only five of the 41 races (12%).

Belmont at the Big A Top Jockeys

Irad Ortiz Jr. (Janet Napolitano/NYRA)

The recently concluded Saratoga summer race meet featured a tour-de-force performance by leading jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who ran away with the riding title with 62 wins from 308 mounts for a winning percentage of 20%. Irad won by a huge 25-win margin over the second-place jockey in the standings, his brother Jose Ortiz, who had 37 wins from 203 mounts for 18%. Rounding out the top five at Saratoga were Manny Franco (36-for-245, 15%), Tyler Gaffalione (34-for-160, 21%), and Luis Saez (30-for-190, 16%). Gaffalione and some of the other leading Saratoga riders such as Ricardo Santana Jr. (17 wins at Saratoga), and to some extent Joel Rosario (who rode 25 winners at Saratoga), will spend all or part of the upcoming season riding in Kentucky, resulting in a new look atop the expected jockey standings at Belmont at the Big A. Luis Saez, currently recovering from injury, will not return to competition until the Keeneland meet in Kentucky during October.

The Ortiz brothers are expected to lead the way once again this season as racing shifts to Belmont at the Big A. Irad Ortiz Jr. was the leading rider at the 2022 Belmont at the Big A meet with 35 wins from 149 mounts for a 23% win percentage. Jose Ortiz had 20 wins at the meet last year from only 116 mounts, accounting for a 17% win percentage. The second-leading rider at Belmont at the Big A in 2022 was Javier Castellano, who won 20 races this year at Saratoga and logged 27 winners at Belmont at the Big A last year. Jose Lezcano, who comes off a quietly very good meet at Saratoga in 2023 where he rode 25 winners from just 130 mounts for a solid 19% win percentage, was third-leading rider at Belmont at the Big A in 2022 with 24 wins. Franco, who won 23 races at the 2022 meet, should round out the top five.

More jockeys likely to compete for spots in the Belmont at the Big A top 10 include Dylan Davis (21 wins in 2022), Junior Alvarado (15 wins recently at Saratoga), and Kendrick Carmouche (13 wins at Saratoga and 14 wins last year at Belmont at the Big A). Flavien Prat will ride on occasion in Kentucky, but his base of operations this season will be at Belmont at the Big A and he should be a big factor at the meet. He exits a 28-win season at Saratoga and won 17 races from 107 mounts at the Belmont at the Big A meet last year for 16%.

Top Trainers to Bet at Belmont the Big A

Linda Rice (Eclipse Sportswire)

The Belmont at the Big A meet will be the season’s home for many of the top barns in the country. You can glean a lot about who will have the most success at the Belmont at the Big A meet by looking at the corresponding meet last year, as well as this year’s Saratoga meet.

Unlike the 2023 Saratoga jockey title, which was a runaway, the Saratoga training title came down to the last day of the meet and ended in a tie for leading trainer between Chad Brown and Linda Rice with 35 wins apiece. Based on the results of the Belmont at the Big A meet in 2022, handicappers should expect another battle for wins atop the standings between Rice and Brown again this season. At the 2022 Belmont at the Big A meet, Chad Brown led the way with 24 winners from 99 starters (24%) while Rice was second in wins with 19 from only 71 starters for a big 27% win rate.

A number of other trainers come off exceptional seasons at Saratoga including Todd Pletcher (28 wins, 19%), Christophe Clement (19 wins, 22%), Bill Mott (17 wins, 14%), and George Weaver (10 wins, 23%). Pletcher, Clement, and Mott were the third, fourth, and fifth-leading trainers at Belmont at the Big A in 2022 and horses from these barns can all be bet at the 2023 Belmont at the Big A meet.

Stables that often do well at this time of year in New York should also be good plays at Belmont at the Big A. This group should include, based on stats from last year’s Belmont at the Big A meet, trainers Michelle Nevin (7-for-32, 22%), Shug McGaughey (6-for-26, 23%), Graham Motion (5-for-22, 23%), John Kimmel (5-for-22, 23%), and H. James Bond (5-for-19, 26%).

The Belmont at the Big A fall meet promises to offer the best racing and wagering horseplayers can find this fall season. Use these tips and trends and you can have a successful meet. Good luck at Belmont at the Big A!