A “Win and You’re In” berth to the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint is up for grabs in Saturday’s $1 million, Grade 2 Ainsworth Turf Sprint Stakes at Kentucky Downs, a lucrative three-quarter-mile race growing in prestige.
Handicapping the Ainsworth Turf Sprint is typically a tricky task. Surprising outcomes are commonplace; while three favorites have visited the winner’s circle in the last 10 years, so have a trio of longshots starting at double-digit odds.
The Ainsworth Turf Sprint is held on an undulating European-style turf course unique among North American racecourses. Some horses handle it well, and some do not. When handicapping the Turf Sprint, it’s tempting to favor horses who have proved they can win at Kentucky Downs.
But is course experience overrated? History suggests yes. Seven of the last 10 Turf Sprint winners had never previously raced at Kentucky Downs, so finding the winner is less about finding a course specialist and more about finding the best horse on the day. And on Saturday, the best horse might well be morning line favorite #7 Cogburn (4-1).
Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, Cogburn showed flashes of talent in his first eight starts on dirt, winning a trio of sprints dashing three-quarters of a mile. None of those wins came in stakes, though Cogburn did run second in the Grade 3 Chick Lang Stakes Presented by Case Tractor and Bachelor Stakes, beaten less than one length on each occasion.
But Cogburn has been unstoppable since switching to turf earlier this year. In the Chamberlain Bridge Stakes at Lone Star Park, he gobbled up ground down the homestretch to rally from midfield and win by half a length. He was every bit as impressive in the Grand Prairie Turf Sprint Stakes on the same course, launching a giant finish from last place to prevail by a head.
Cogburn was a 7.50-1 longshot when he stepped up in class for the Grade 3 Troy Stakes at Saratoga, but that didn’t stop his winning streak. After sticking closer to the early pace on a soft course, Cogburn rallied steadily to defeat Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes presented by Cohere Health winner #8 Nobals (5-1) by three-quarters of a length. Other beaten runners in the deep field included future Harvey Pack Stakes winner Thin White Duke and 2022 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Caravel.
In short, Cogburn is undefeated in three starts on turf and has proved his worth against high-class competition. He’s never run at Kentucky Downs, but that shouldn’t be an issue. His red-hot form and obvious talent make him an appealing win choice in the Ainsworth Turf Sprint.
If Cogburn’s 4-1 morning line odds hold up, a straightforward win bet would be an enticing play; every $10 win bet would yield $50. But bettors in search of a larger score can play Cogburn on top of exacta tickets using a handful of other talented horses for second place.
Who should we use for second place? Certainly the above-mentioned Nobals is a viable contender. His runner-up finish in the Troy was excellent and followed pacesetting victories in the Twin Spires Turf Sprint (in which he defeated next-out Grade 3 Green Flash Handicap winner Motorious) and the William Garrett Handicap.
#5 Anaconda (8-1) also offers appeal. He won an allowance-optional claimer sprinting seven-eighths of a mile at Kentucky Downs last year and nabbed Belmont Park’s Elusive Quality Stakes at the same distance during the spring. Anaconda is cutting back in distance after finishing fourth and seventh against tough competition in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes and Grade 3 Kelso Stakes racing one mile, and tackling a shorter distance can trigger improvement.
We’ll round out our exacta play with #1 One Timer (9-2), a 4 1/4-length winner of the Grade 2 Franklin-Simpson Stakes at Kentucky Downs last year. One Timer is 2-for-3 this season and enters the Ainsworth Turf Sprint off a sharp pace-pressing triumph in the KY Downs Preview Turf Sprint Stakes at Ellis Park.
Depending on how much money you want to spend, here are two different strategies for betting the Ainsworth Turf Sprint:
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #7 Cogburn
What to say at the betting window: Kentucky Downs, 10th race, $10 to win on 7
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$15 to win on #7 Cogburn
What to say at the betting window: Kentucky Downs, 10th race, $15 to win on 7
$5 exacta: 7 with 1,5,8 ($15)
What to say at the betting window: Kentucky Downs, 10th race, $5 exacta 7 with 1,5,8
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Daily Double
1-9
1-9
$164
Superfecta
9-1-4-3
9-1-4-3
$794
Trifecta
9-1-4
9-1-4
$361
Z-5 Super Hi-5
9-1-4-3-7
9-1-4-3-7
$0
Daily Double
1-9
1-9
$164
Superfecta
9-1-4-3
9-1-4-3
$794
Trifecta
9-1-4
9-1-4
$361
Z-5 Super Hi-5
9-1-4-3-7
9-1-4-3-7
$0
