This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they previously were.

In the third edition of this blog for the 2025 run for the roses, the focus is on the changing landscape of the 3-year-old male division after the last two weeks of action.

HEATING UP

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1. Caldera

With a nice win bet on Caldera in the Feb. 16 Sunland Park Derby, I started to count my money in early stretch when he rallied boldly on the outside of pacesetter Getaway Car and seized command. I was obviously disappointed when Getaway Car battled back to prevail by a nose after a thrilling stretch duel, but I came away impressed nonetheless by the runner-up. A robust gray or roan colt by Liam’s Map trained by Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, Caldera seemed to lose focus a bit after he took the lead and allowed the winner to fight back on his inside. He was equipped with blinkers to limit his vision and might have thought his work was done when he hit the front, only to find out big races like this are rarely easy. He dug back in gamely and fought to the finish line only to come up just short. Caldera was making his stakes debut after a 5 ½-length win in his third career start Jan. 17 at Oaklawn Park and shows a promising trajectory. He has improved both his Equibase Speed Figure and Beyer Speed Figure in each of his four starts, with a career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure and 91 Beyer Speed Figure for the Sunland Derby. Caldera still has some maturing to do but Lukas will give him every opportunity to prove he belongs on the Derby trail.

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2. John Hancock

John Hancock was a tepid 5-2 favorite for the Sam F. Davis Stakes Feb. 8 at Tampa Bay Downs coming off an impressive three-length debut win at the Tampa track in January, and he proved up to the task with a front-running half-length score for trainer Brad Cox. He faced some pressure through a half-mile in :46.23 and had enough petrol in the tank to win the race with a final furlong in :12.95. He wasn’t flying but the Constitution colt finished reasonably well under the circumstances. Likewise, the speed figures were OK – a 96 Equibase Speed Figure and an 85 Beyer Speed Figure, both incremental steps forward – but with only two starts to date there is room for improvement for this unbeaten colt with tactical speed.

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3. Baeza

After an unplaced finish on grass in his career debut and a runner-up finish to well-regarded Rodriguez in his second start, Baeza broke through with a win Feb. 14 at Santa Anita Park in his third try for trainer John Shirreffs. The McKinzie colt pressed a strong pace from second under Hector Berrios and proved much the best late in a 4 ¾-length victory going a mile, completing the final eighth of a mile in :12.57. Shirreffs won the Kentucky Derby 20 years ago with Giacomo, so this half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire) to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch is in good hands. He earned a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure for the maiden win and an eye-catching 93 Beyer Speed Figure. He looks like a colt Shirreffs brought along slowly who is now starting to figure things out, plus he’s bred to be a star.

Also eligible: I dabbled with using the final spot on Getaway Car but his stock just did not rise much in my estimation in victory in the Sunland Park Derby Feb. 16. There is a level of class with Getaway Car that is pretty firmly established at this point – he’s placed in a Grade 1 race and won multiple stakes but looks a step below the best of the 3-year-old division. Getaway Car showed me some grit in the Sunland Derby, fighting back determinedly to turn back a challenger with all of the momentum. I’m just not sure how high the ceiling is for this Curlin colt after he matched a career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure, the fourth time he’s earned that number. … Chunk of Gold finished 9 ¾ lengths behind runaway Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes winner Magnitude Feb. 15 at Fair Grounds. The victor would have been an absolute slam dunk for the top spot in this week’s edition of this blog had he not come out of the race with an injury. But given how far back he was at the finish line, Chunk of Gold, who passed six horses for second place at 43.30-1 odds, was difficult to evaluate. He had shown promise in two previous races – a debut win sprinting and a runner-up finish in the one-mile Leonatus Stakes, both on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park – but I’ll reserve judgment until his next start on the Derby trail.

COOLING DOWN

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1. Magnitude

I profiled Magnitude Feb. 17 and was effusive in my praise of the colt by Not This Time after he set a strong pace and ran a hole in the wind in a 9 ¾-length romp in the $500,000 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes Feb. 15 at Fair Grounds. He earned a monster 108 Beyer Speed Figure, the fastest this year for any 3-year-old at any distance, for his Risen Star win at 43.20-1 odds, but he was diagnosed with an injury Feb. 18 and will miss the Kentucky Derby. Magnitude, who would have been the clear choice for the top spot in this week’s heating up section, has a bone chip in his left ankle that will require surgery. “We’ll just try to focus on the brilliance he obviously has. Try to do everything to get him back to that level,” Magnitude’s trainer Steve Asmussen told BloodHorse. “Obviously, very disappointing for the entire team.”

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2. East Avenue

This bay colt by Medaglia d’Oro looked like he had superstar written all over him when he followed a runaway eight-length debut win last August at Ellis Park with a 5 ¼-length victory in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. That was enough to make him the 9-5 favorite for the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA Nov. 1 at Del Mar, but things have not gone well for East Avenue since. He got off to a disastrous start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and lost any chance for victory in the opening strides, finishing ninth and beaten by 13 ¼ lengths. Given the built-in excuse from the Breeders’ Cup, there was considerable interest surrounding East Avenue’s return as a 3-year-old in the Risen Star Stakes Feb. 15. He got off to a much better start, stalking the pace from second, but after Magnitude put him away on the final turn East Avenue packed it in and faded to 10^th in the 12-horse field and beaten by 22 ¾ lengths. It’s too soon to give up on a Grade 1 winner who was near the top of almost every expert’s Kentucky Derby top 10 a week ago, but there is no sugar-coating the fact that this was a poor way to kick off his 3-year-old campaign.

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3. Treaty of Rome

Treaty of Rome ran well in his stakes debut when second to Guns Loaded in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, but it’s fair to question the quality of that field after Guns Loaded subsequently ran last of seven in the Holy Bull Stakes (beaten by 33 ¼ lengths) and Treaty of Rome finished 36 ¾ lengths behind winner John Hancock when ninth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. The Uncle Mo colt was within two lengths of the lead after a half-mile in the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis but stopped. I would expect to see Treaty of Rome next in a much easier spot, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him try the grass.

Of note: I noticed that Disco Time had not had a published workout since his victory in the Lecomte Stakes Jan. 18 at Fair Grounds, and it was reported by Daily Racing Form that he missed the Risen Star Stakes due to a minor setback. Any misstep at this time of year is worth noting, but hopefully he’ll be back in action soon for trainer Brad Cox. … Likewise, Jonathan’s Way missed a planned start in the Risen Star after some bloodwork was deemed unsatisfactory. Last year’s Iroquois Stakes winner and runner-up in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes is set to finish a treatment plan this week and hopefully resume training in the near future. “No plans for now,” trainer Phil Bauer told BloodHorse. "We'll see how training goes next week and put a plan together."