The $1.25 million Grade 2 Rebel Stakes Sunday at Oaklawn Park drew a full field of 14 horses with “Road to the Derby” qualifying points on the line and a hefty payday awaiting the winning connections.

Speed King won the most recent local prep for this race, the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, with Sandman hoping to improve off his runner-up effort after spotting the field several lengths following a poor start. Tiztastic and Publisher ran third and sixth, respectively, in that race. Coal Battle won Oaklawn's Smarty Jones Stakes in January but passed the Southwest and could be a contender, as could Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes third-place finisher Innovator. Another pair of recent third-place finishers in stakes races for 3-year-olds in this field are Bullard and Madaket Road. Smoken Wicked won the Louisiana Juvenile Stakes and Louisiana Futurity in succession and is stretching out to two turns for the first time. Dreaminblue earned a strong win in a sprint race four weeks ago and steps into stakes ranks for the first time. Admiral Dennis, Brereton’s Baytown, Hot Gunner, and Hypnus are all recent winners at lower levels hoping to have an impact.

Analysis and top win contenders:

We expect 3-year-old horses to continue to improve physically and mentally at this time of year on the road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve, and four horses bring a three-race pattern of improving Equibase Speed Figures into this year’s Rebel Stakes. The best of that group is Smoken Wicked, with 104, 105 and then 112 figures in his last three races, all sprints. Similarly, Dreaminblue earned an 87 figure three races back in a two-turn race, followed by 101 and 104 figures in sprints. Sandman earned an 81 speed figure in last year's Street Sense Stakes at the distance of the Rebel, followed by a 97 figure then a 101 figure in the Southwest Stakes. Given the trouble Sandman had at the start of that race, where he spotted the field many lengths after breaking poorly, he might have been able to equal Speed King's 103 figure. Speed King is another of those horses on the same pattern as he earned a 93 figure I his debut in November then 95 before the 103 in the Southwest.

Dreaminblue. (Coady Media)

Among the four horses above who should continue to improve, the betting value will most  likely lie with Dreaminblue because his win came in a maiden race and he has not yet won a two-turn race. That’s fine with me, because since adding blinkers two races back he has shown he understands what he needs to do in a race. There’s no doubt in my mind that Dreaminblue can run as well at this distance as he did in his most recent race, because his sire, Street Boss, has produced a number of exceptional two-turn winners. When Dreaminblue could only manage fourth of 10 in his previous two-turn race in December, it came without the blinkers. As such, with a probable hot pace to close into and with just modest improvement needed to equal the 105 figures the last two winners of the Rebel Stakes have earned, I believe Dreaminblue can post the upset win in this excellent field.

Sandman rallied valiantly for second among nine horses in the Southwest Stakes last month, earning a 101 Equibase Speed Figure. He had already won a two-turn race professionally with a 97 figure at Oaklawn prior to that in December. He was much farther back when ninth after a quarter-mile and half-mile in the Southwest after a poor start, but jockey Cristian Torres did not panic because he had ridden the colt in his win one month earlier. Making up ground with every stride in the stretch, Sandman was only one length back at the finish. In the Southwest, because American Promise broke slowly, Speed King obtained an easy lead from the start and was able to open up by three and one-half lengths in the stretch, which enabled him to hold his margin to the wire. In this year’s Rebel, Innovator (incidentally from the same barn of D. Wayne Lukas as American Promise) has a very strong need-the-lead running style and is drawn three post position inside Speed King. Those two could hook up on a lively tempo which would make them both susceptible to being passed late. In that case, Sandman can take full advantage and run well enough to win.

Sandman. (Coady Media)

Publisher, Smoken Wicked, and Bullard all have some potential to run well and may have only slightly less probability to succeed than either Dreaminblue or Sandman. Publisher was rallying strongly along the rail in the Southwest when another horse crossed over in front of him, causing Publisher to clip heels and nearly fall. Flavien Prat rides Publisher for the first time, and although he is winless in five career starts, this son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah who earned a strong 100 figure at this distance and at Oaklawn right before the Southwest could run better than his high odds suggest. Smoken Wicked has won two stakes in a row, both restricted to Louisiana-bred horses and both sprints. Nevertheless, those efforts earned two of the best last two speed figures in the field (105 and 112). Tyler Gaffalione rides for the first time and the horse has shown a stalking style in his last two races, so he could be in a position to take over at high odds if the pacesetters tire, as expected. Bullard won the first two starts of his career, both sprints, including the Bob Hope Stakes in November. He ran evenly in the San Vicente Stakes last month behind the highly rated Barnes, and he too has a stalking style which could help him improve. Bullard earned a strong 105 figure in the Bob Hope, so he too appears to fit with this group (Editor’s Note: Bullard was withdrawn from the Rebel Stakes on Feb. 21 due to spiked temperature, co-owner West Point Thoroughbreds announced). Additionally, Tiztastic is a horse that could finish second or third after he rallied from seventh to third behind Speed King and Sandman in the Southwest to earn a career-best 99 speed figure.

In my opinion there are no knocks on either Speed King or Innovator, except for the fact that their previous races and their post positions make it pretty obvious they will have to expend a good deal of early energy trying to get to the front from outside posts before the first turn. Given that both have led through the opening quarter-mile and half-mile in each of their last three races, this appears to be a “immovable object versus irresistible force” situation which makes them both vulnerable to being passed in the late stages despite both of them owning some good Equibase speed figures.

The rest of the field (with best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Admiral Dennis (97), Brereton’s Baytown (77), Coal Battle (96), Hot Gunner (75), Hypnus (91), and Madaket Road (97).

Win Contenders:

Dreaminblue

Sandman