A Trifecta Betting Strategy for the 2025 San Felipe Stakes

Gambling
San Felipe Stakes, Kentucky Derby, Santa Anita Park, horse racing, Barnes, Journalism, Rodriguez, Bob Baffert, trainer, betting, trifecta, gambling
Horses rush out of the starting gate in the 2021 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Six horses have entered Saturday’s $300,000, Grade 2 DK Horse San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park, but bettors figure to view the 1 1/16-mile race, which is a qualifier for the Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, as a three-horse battle.

Expected favorites #2 Journalism, #3 Barnes, and #4 Rodriguez appear to rank a cut above their rivals. All bring strong credentials to the table. Splitting them isn’t easy, but we’ll have to choose one over the others if we want to catch a decent return on investment betting the race.

Many bettors will side with Barnes. Purchased for $3.2 million as a yearling, Barnes is undefeated in two starts. Last time out, he demonstrated his abundant talent when winning the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita by a dominant 5 ½ lengths.

Rodriguez (Eclipse Sportswire)

But Barnes has yet to run farther than seven-eighths of a mile, and the San Felipe marks his first start in a two-turn race. The longer distance is at least a small question mark for Barnes.

There’s no such concern surrounding Journalism. After finishing third in his debut sprinting, Journalism stretched out over a two-turn mile at Del Mar to win a maiden special weight by 2 ½ lengths. He then joined the Road to the Kentucky Derby in the 1 1/16-mile Los Alamitos Futurity, in which he powered clear to win by 3 ½ lengths over future Sunland Park Derby winner Getaway Car and previous Del Mar Futurity winner Gaming.

Journalism clearly relishes racing around two turns. But he hasn’t run since Dec. 14, and it’s possible he’ll be short of peak fitness for the San Felipe.

That’s why we’re siding with Rodriguez, Barnes’ stablemate also trained by Bob Baffert. He’s run twice around two turns at Santa Anita this year and impressed on both occasions. First he crushed the field in a one-mile maiden special weight by seven lengths over next-out winner Baeza, earning a powerful 100 Beyer Speed Figure that tops the San Felipe field.

Then Rodriguez squared off against champion Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. He finished second by 3 ¾ lengths while pulling 2 ¼ lengths clear of third-place finisher Madaket Road, who returned to run a strong second in the Rebel Stakes last Saturday.

We recommend betting Rodriguez over Barnes and Journalism in a trifecta, varying the base cost of your bet to suit your budget.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$5 trifecta: 4 with 2,3 with 2,3 (total cost: $10)

What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, 8th race, $5 trifecta 4 with 2,3 with 2,3

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$15 trifecta: 4 with 2,3 with 2,3 (total cost: $30)

What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, 8th race, $15 trifecta 4 with 2,3 with 2,3

Good luck, and enjoy the race!

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