Saturday’s Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park is an important stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. Eight horses have entered the 1 1/16-mile race, and at least half of them appear to have solid win credentials.

Analyzing the recent history of the Fountain of Youth can help you identify the most likely winner in 2025 by revealing trends and tendencies uniting past winners.

Here are seven Fountain of Youth trends to aid your handicapping:

Late runners perform well

The Fountain of Youth finish line is positioned a sixteenth of a mile before Gulfstream Park’s regular finish line, which means the homestretch portion of the Fountain of Youth is shorter than usual.

You might expect this short homestretch to favor speed horses, but that isn’t the case. Pacesetters win the Fountain of Youth from time to time, but since the Fountain of Youth adopted its current distance configuration in 2012, horses rallying from outside the top three have won eight out of 13 editions, including four of the last six.

Longshot winners are uncommon

Horses starting at short prices tend to win the Fountain of Youth. Favorites have won five of the last 13 editions (38%), and horses starting at 5-1 or less have won 11 of the last 13 (84%).

A recent run at Gulfstream Park is beneficial

Sometimes horses win the Fountain of Youth in their first run of the season; Union Rags, Promises Fulfilled, Forte, and Dornoch have all done so since 2012.

But horses who prepped with a race at Gulfstream Park in January or February have found greater success, winning nine of the last 13 editions of the Fountain of Youth.

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Route racing experience is critical

Experienced route racers have an advantage over untested sprinters in the Fountain of Youth. Each of the last 13 Fountain of Youth winners had previously contested a race over one mile or farther, with 10 of the 13 winning a race over one mile or farther.

Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez are sharp

Since the turn of the century, no trainer has won the Fountain of Youth more often than Todd Pletcher. He’s saddled four winners since 2007, including Forte two years ago. Jockey John Velazquez has won the Fountain of Youth five times since 2007, a success rate no other jockey this century has matched. Twice, the Hall of Famers have teamed up to win this race during the span.

Favor horses with graded stakes experience

It’s uncommon for horses without graded stakes experience to win the Fountain of Youth. No fewer than 11 of the last 13 winners (85%) had previously contested a graded stakes. One of the exceptions was Itsaknockout, who won via the disqualification of graded stakes winner Upstart.

Conclusions

River Thames (Angelo Lieto/Coglianese Photo)

History suggests the strongest contenders in the 2025 Fountain of Youth are #3 Burnham Square and #6 River Thames. Each matches five of our seven historical trends.

Stretch-running Burnham Square exits a rallying triumph in the Feb. 1 Holy Bull Stakes racing 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream Park. He’ll be a short price in the betting (certainly under 5-1), so he ticks a lot of important boxes.

Meanwhile, River Thames has Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez in his corner. The unbeaten colt will draw plenty of wagering support after trouncing the field in a one-mile allowance optional claiming race on Feb. 1 at Gulfstream by 6 ½ lengths, but his lack of graded stakes experience is a significant historical disadvantage. His tendency to race close to the pace is another question mark.

If forced to choose between the two, we would give Burnham Square a slight edge thanks to his graded stakes experience. But both horses loom as a logical win threats in the Fountain of Youth.

Enjoy the race!