The $1.25 million, Grade 2 Rebel Stakes is an important stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. Held at 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park, the race has been won this century by champions Smarty Jones, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Lookin At Lucky, Will Take Charge, and American Pharoah.

Analyzing the history of the Rebel reveals a handful of trends and tendencies uniting recent winners. We can use these trends to sort through the entries for the 2025 Rebel and determine the most likely winner.

The following six guidelines should help you cash winning bets:

Tactical speed is a big advantage

Year after year, horses with tactical speed win the Rebel. Case in point, five of the last 12 winners were leading after half a mile, and six more were positioned no more than 1 3/4 lengths behind the pacesetter.

Bet short prices to win, longshots to finish second

Un Ojo was a rare recent upset winner of the Rebel. (Coady Media)

While longshots win the Rebel on occasion (we’re looking at you, 75.40-1 shot Un Ojo), nine of the last 12 winners have started at odds of 6.10-1 or less, including three winning favorites. Well-regarded contenders tend to take home first prize.

Longshots have found better luck finishing second. Common Defense (27.20-1 in 2024), Ethereal Road (15.80-1 in 2022), Hozier (18.80-1 in 2021), Excession (82.60-1 in 2020), and Sonneteer (112.30-1 in 2017) have all taken runner-up honors in recent Rebel editions.

Favor horses trained by Bob Baffert

Since 2010, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has compiled a stellar record in the Rebel: eight wins, four seconds, and one third from 16 starters. That’s a 50% win rate and an 81% in-the-money (top three) rate.

Bet horses who have run this year

A recent prep race helps horses win the Rebel. Ten of the last 12 winners prepped with a race in either January or February. Horses making their first start of the year in the Rebel have gone 2-for-14 during the same timeframe. The two wins came courtesy of the Grade 1-winning juveniles American Pharoah (2015) and Timberlake (2024), so it takes a good horse to win the Rebel off a layoff.

Local Oaklawn runners rarely prevail

It’s uncommon for local horses to win the Rebel. Did you know only one of the last 12 winners (Long Range Toddy in 2019) exited a race at Oaklawn Park? Among the other 11 winners, six prepped at Santa Anita, two prepped at Fair Grounds, and one apiece came from Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, and Aqueduct.

Inexperienced maiden and allowance winners perform respectably

While horses with graded stakes experience have won eight of the last 12 editions of the Rebel, four winners were tackling the graded stakes ranks for the first time, a respectable success rate. Those four winners (Omaha Beach, Magnum Moon, Malagacy, and Cupid) all entered off victories in either maiden or allowance races.

Conclusions

History suggests the most likely winner of the Rebel is #5 Madaket Road.

Madaket Road winning at Santa Anita in December. (Coady Media)

Runner-up in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes and third against champion Citizen Bull in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Madaket Road is an excellent fit for the historical profile of a Rebel winner. He’s trained by Bob Baffert, he’s run this year, he’s very likely to start at a short price (possibly as the favorite), and he exits a race at Santa Anita.

The one potential strike against Madaket Road is the fact he’s shown a tendency to settle a little farther off the pace than we prefer — two lengths to 3 1/2 lengths off the lead after half a mile. But two of his three starts have been fast-paced sprints, so there’s a good chance Madaket Road will secure a more forward position while stretching out to 1 1/16 miles for the Rebel. That should set the stage for victory under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.

Enjoy the race!