The first Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifier of 2025 is Saturday’s $150,000 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct, worth 10-5-3-2-1 points to the top five finishers.

The Jerome is a historic race dating back to 1866. For a time, it was a late summer contest carrying Grade 1 prestige. The roster of winners includes racing legends Bold Ruler, Coaltown, Kelso, Hill Prince, and Tom Fool.

The Jerome was reconfigured into a Kentucky Derby steppingstone in 2013. This year’s edition has drawn an eight-horse field. A couple of proven stakes winners are in the entries, but we view the up-and-coming #6 Cyclone State as the horse to beat for hot trainer Chad Summers, who has saddled four winners from 11 starters at Aqueduct since Nov. 7. That’s a lofty 36% win rate.

Cyclone State struggled in his first three starts sprinting on dirt and running long on turf, finishing fourth, sixth, and sixth. He’s been far more successful since stretching out for a trio of one-mile dirt races at Aqueduct.

Cyclone State’s first start over the Jerome configuration yielded a pacesetting runner-up finish in a deep maiden special weight. He was beaten only one length by future Grade 2 Remsen Stakes runner-up Aviator Gui while finishing ahead of next-out maiden winner Hands of Time.

Roughly five weeks later, Cyclone State led from start to finish to win an identical maiden special weight by 2 ½ lengths. This preceded a step up in class for an $80,000 allowance optional claimer, in which Cyclone State again led every step of the way to prevail by 2 ¾ lengths.

Cyclone State (Adam Coglianese/NYRA)

Cyclone State’s two victories have yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 85 and 87, which rank among the highest numbers in the Jerome field. His abundant early speed is an asset, and he enters off a fast workout traveling five-eighths of a mile over the Belmont Park training track. What’s not to like? Cyclone State has every chance to record a third straight victory.

If you want to bet the Jerome on a small budget (say, $10), a win bet on Cyclone State is a straightforward approach with a chance to yield a respectable payoff. But if you want to bet more and aim for a bigger score, the exacta (select the top two finishers in order) and trifecta (select the top three finishers in order) should be winnable without breaking the bank.

Which horses should we use underneath Cyclone State? Definitely #7 Studlydoright. He tired to finish fourth when racing 1 1/8 miles around two turns in the Remsen, his Road to the Kentucky Derby debut. But Studlydoright had previously won the Nashua Stakes racing a one-turn mile at Aqueduct with an 88 Brisnet Speed rating.

Studlydoright has performed admirably around one turn; his other exploits include a win in the Tremont Stakes (with an 89 Brisnet Speed rating) plus runner-up finishes in the Grade 3 Sanford Stakes and Laurel Futurity. Returning to a one-turn mile for the Jerome should put Studlydoright in the hunt for a top-two finish.

#4 Omaha Omaha is another logical contender after dominating a $62,500 allowance optional claimer at Laurel Park by seven lengths.  #3 Ican warrants inclusion as well after overcoming a stumbling start to rally and finish second to Cyclone State in the latter’s $80,000 allowance optional claiming win.

We’ll round out our tickets with #2 Mansetti, who is invading from Canada. He’s yet to run over a dirt track like Aqueduct, but his form over the all-weather Tapeta surface at Woodbine is sharp. He exits a gate-to-wire victory in the Clarendon Stakes dashing three-quarters of a mile and looms as a wild card while switching surfaces and stretching out over one mile.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 to win on #6 Cyclone State

What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, 8th race, $10 to win on 6

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$16 to win on #6 Cyclone State

What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, 8th race, $10 to win on 6

$8 exacta: 6 with 7

What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, 8th race, $8 exacta 6 with 7

$2 trifecta: 6 with 7 with 2,3,4 (total cost $6)

What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, 8th race, $2 trifecta 6 with 7 with 2,3,4

Good luck, and enjoy the race!