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Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.
Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
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Six Beginner Betting Tools
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The fall portion of the Aqueduct meet comes to an end this weekend, but not before hosting its best race day of the season with four graded stakes races on the docket this Saturday topped by the $500,000, Grade 2 Cigar Mile Handicap Presented by Twinspires.com. Aqueduct’s 10-race Saturday program also includes a trio of supporting feature races including a pair of important tests for 2-year-olds – the $250,000, Grade 2 Remsen Stakes and the $250,000, Grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes for fillies – as well as the $200,000, Grade 3 Go For Wand Stakes, which is the filly and mare counterpart to the Cigar Mile at one mile. For this weekend’s winners, let’s focus on Saturday’s stakes for older horses, the Cigar Mile and the Go For Wand. If we can pick the winners of these two key races, we’ll be well on our way to a big day at the Big A this Saturday. Enjoy the races.
Saturday, Dec. 7
Aqueduct, Race 4, $200,000 Go For Wand Stakes, post time 1:08 p.m. ET
The Grade 3 Go For Wand Stakes may be the somewhat overlooked stakes race on Saturday’s Aqueduct card since it goes as race 4, but it has drawn a fascinating eight-horse field and will be well worth a bet or two, or three, early in the day. The overlooked horse in the overlooked race will be #8 Shidabhuti, who could offer a rare chance to bet a Chad Brown-trained winner at an overlay price on the tote board. Brown’s other entrant, #3 Occult, likely will be the favorite after running second last time out behind Idiomatic in the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes at Keeneland, but Shidabhuti has just as much upside going a one-turn mile as Occult does, and the price on Shidabhuti will be much more attractive if you are betting to win. The top feather in her cap so far in her career was a win in the Grade 3 Distaff Stakes at seven furlongs earlier this year at Aqueduct. Three of the contenders in this field are coming off long layoffs of between six and seven months including #1 Tizzy in the Sky, #5 Comparative, and #7 Ain’t Broke. Of the three, the one who could be ready and able at this distance vs. this field is Ain’t Broke, who was right there with Shidabhuti in April’s Distaff Stakes at Aqueduct and already owns a pair of big wins at this distance and track for trainer Linda Rice.
The Play: Bet on #8 Shidabhuti (9-2) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes with #3 Occult (5-2) and #7 Ain’t Broke (5-1).
Aqueduct, Race 9, $500,000 Cigar Mile Handicap Presented by Twinspires.com, post time 3:35 p.m. ET
The headline race of the day on Saturday is the running of the Grade 2 Cigar Mile Handicap, a one-turn mile that has drawn a competitive 11-horse field and will be an excellent betting race. #11 Post Time has won nine of his 14 career races and is in career-best form at present coming off a runner-up finish in the Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in his last start. He won the Grade 2 Carter Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets earlier this year at seven furlongs on this track and is an obvious major contender in the Cigar Mile as the possible favorite. One horse that has a legitimate chance to knock off Post Time in this spot is #7 Locked, a 3-year-old who looked like he would be a serious Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve contender based on a win in last fall’s Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity followed by a third in last year’s FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, but was instead derailed by an injury that kept him out of action for almost all of his 2024 campaign. He returned from the sidelines with a 7 ½-length prep race win going seven furlongs here at Aqueduct on Oct. 19, serving notice that he’ll be better than ever for trainer Todd Pletcher in this second race off the layoff. As good as Locked is in two-turn routes, you could make the argument based on his Beyer Speed Figures that he might be even better around one turn. #10 Coastal Mission is a win machine that has visited the winner’s circle 14 times in his career including his last two races which were both impressive stakes wins at a mile. You can make an argument that he deserves a spot in your trifecta boxes ahead of #1 Book’em Danno, who is a Grade 1 winner but may be stretched to his maximum at this distance of one mile in his first career attempt against older horses.
The Play: Bet #7 Locked (9-2) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #10 Coastal Mission (12-1) and #11 Post Time (7-2).