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Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.
Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
Six Beginner Betting Tools
The year is winding down and we’ve reached the last weekend of 2024. Let’s put a bow on it by picking a pair of winners on Gulfstream Park’s final Saturday card of the year. Saturday’s 11-race program at Gulfstream will be headlined by the running of the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector Stakes featuring White Abarrio as a prohibitive 3-5 favorite. Instead of focusing on that race, let’s turn our attention to a pair of undercard features on the program for this weekend’s winners, including the $115,000 Abundantia Stakes for turf sprinters and a $100,000 handicap race on the Tapeta course that will go as races 8 and 9 on the card. There are horses in those races that should be able to make us some money. Have a happy New Year and a healthy and prosperous 2025.
Saturday, Dec. 28
Gulfstream Park, Race 8, $115,000 Abundantia Stakes, post time 3:48 p.m. ET
A full field of 12 turf sprinters goes to post for the Abundantia Stakes at five furlongs, and there will be no shortage of speed in this quick group of fillies and mares. There are enough good horses from high-profile trainers in this big field to ensure value on the tote board even if you like the favorites, and that’s good news for the prospects of betting #12 Twirling Queen who appears to be the horse to beat. She comes out of a five-furlong turf win at Del Mar in her last race in the $200,000 Senator Ken Maddy Stakes in a victory that raised her 2024 record to five wins in six starts. She and has been consistently good on the grass thanks to an up-close stalking running style that happens to fit perfectly in this race. Look for her to sit right behind a set of leaders battling it out up front on a fast pace and take over in the stretch to secure victory for hot trainer Jose D’Angelo, who is winning at a 27% clip at the Gulfstream meet so far. Nestled in the far inside post position is #1 Mrs. Gambolini for leading trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., and she too looks like a serious contender in this spot if she can work out a trip from the rail based on a fast 4 ¾-length win against softer competition last time at this same course and distance. She seems eligible for success at this level if able to repeat that last effort. Finally, #5 Just a Care returned from a layoff in her last outing to earn a solid turf sprint win at Keeneland after running a :21.50 opening quarter mile. That’s the kind of early speed that tends to play very well in Gulfstream Park turf sprints.
The Play: Bet on #12 Twirling Queen (5-2) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes with #1 Mrs. Gambolini (7-2), and #5 Just a Care (6-1).
Gulfstream Park, Race 9, $100,000 Handicap, post time 4:21 p.m. ET
A field of nine older horses has been drawn for this $100,000 handicap race set to go 1 1/16 miles on Gulfstream’s Tapeta all-weather track. This is an extremely wide-open race, and the morning-live favorites look vulnerable as they either switch surfaces or come back off long layoffs. Let’s pick some live, in-form runners with good chances to comprise the trifecta and post a mild upset instead. #4 Yamato is a Gulfstream Tapeta horse for the course with five wins and nine in-the-money finishes in 10 prior outings on this track including a win last time out with a very strong speed figure. He will be tough to beat with a repeat of that effort. The horse that finished second behind Yamato in his last race, #6 Boppy O, is also a win contender here. He chased Yamato, got shuffled back in traffic, and then came back again to pass horses in the stretch in a race he perhaps could have won with a clean trip. Yet another contender is #9 Possiblemente, a winner of two of his last three races on all-weather tracks including a win over some of these same horses last time here at Gulfstream where he overcame early trouble and still drew off to win by 2 ½ lengths.
The Play: Bet #4 Yamato (5-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #6 Boppy O (8-1) and #9 Possiblemente (6-1).