An 11-horse field has assembled for Saturday evening’s $250,000 Iowa Derby at Prairie Meadows. You might assume that with so many horses in the entries, the 1 1/16-mile contest for 3-year-olds is ripe for an upset winner. But that doesn’t appear to be the case.

After all, expected favorite #9 Just a Touch (9-5) is a formidable competitor. He’s twice started at the Grade 1 level, so dropping to the ungraded level for the Iowa Derby should make him mighty tough to defeat.

A son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify out of 2010 Grade 3 Comely Stakes winner Touching Beauty, by Tapit, Just a Touch impressed when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special weight on Jan. 27 at Fair Grounds. After pressing the early pace in second place, Just a Touch took over and drew away to dominate by 4 ¼ lengths.

This eye-catching victory launched Just a Touch onto the Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, where he competed with aplomb. In the one-mile, Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, Just a Touch stalked the pace while racing wide and battled gamely to finish second by two lengths. Then in the 1 1/8-mile Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, Just a Touch raced in second place early on, took command in the homestretch, and stayed on to finish second by 1 ½ lengths against Sierra Leone.

Just a Touch’s Blue Grass performance looks even better in retrospect. Sierra Leone returned to finish second by a nose in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby and then third in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, while Blue Grass fourth-place finisher Dornoch won the Belmont Stakes.

Just a Touch didn’t fare quite as well in the Kentucky Derby, where he finished last out of 20. But the lightly raced colt had legitimate excuses that day. During the opening quarter-mile, he was bounced around in traffic and wound up racing in midfield, much farther off the pace than usual. He also found himself behind rivals, and he didn’t seem to enjoy the dirt kickback brought on by that position.

The stage appears set for Just a Touch to rebound while facing easier competition in the Iowa Derby. He’s drawn an outside post, so he shouldn’t have any difficulty securing an outside pressing trip like in his first three starts. And none of his 10 rivals have won at the stakes level, so Just a Touch’s runner-up finishes in the Blue Grass and Gotham tower over the Iowa Derby field from a class perspective.

In short, Just a Touch looks like a probable winner. But will his odds be high enough to warrant a win bet? Not necessarily. He’s 9-5 on the morning line, but there’s good chance he’ll start at significantly lower odds, and a $10 win bet might return under $20.

Dimatic (Coady Media)

In an effort to cash a bigger payoff, we’ll bet the exacta, which requires selecting the top two finishers in the correct order. And the horse we’ll favor for second place is #8 Dimatic (5-1), the third choice on the morning line. A cold Just a Touch/Dimatic exacta should yield a solid return on investment.

Dimatic failed to light up the world in two starts on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, finishing fifth in the Rebel Stakes and tenth in the Arkansas Derby. But he’s improved meaningfully in his last two starts for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. After closing from midfield to win a $100,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park, Dimatic tackled the 1 1/16-mile Texas Derby at Lone Star Park and launched a nice rally to lead in midstretch. He ultimately finished second, but he was beaten only one length by Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby third-place finisher E J Won the Cup while pulling six lengths clear of Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes runner-up Real Men Violin.

The fact Dimatic held his own against proven graded stakes performers like E J Won the Cup and Real Men Violin suggests he’s a good fit for the Iowa Derby. We prefer him for runner-up honors over morning-line second choice #7 Next Level (7-2), who exits a third-place finish in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes. Next Level is a capable runner on his best day, but he finished behind Dimatic when eighth in the Rebel and may have less upside than his improving rival.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 Exacta: 9 with 8

What to say at the betting window: Prairie Meadows, 8th race, $10 exacta 9 with 8

Wagering Strategy on a $25 Budget

$25 Exacta: 9 with 8

What to say at the betting window: Prairie Meadows, 8th race, $25 exacta 9 with 8

Good luck, and enjoy the race!