The Grade 1, $750.000 Belmont Derby Invitational drew a very strong field of 11 including six previous stakes winners. Coming out of the toughest race is The Foxes, who finished fifth of 14 in the Group 1 English Derby five weeks ago and who previously won the Group 2 Dante Stakes. The U.S. based contingent is led by Webslinger, winner of two stakes in a row - the Grade 2 American Turf Stakes in May and more recently the Audubon Stakes. Kalik just won the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge Stakes last month and is trying for his fourth consecutive win. Wizard of Westwood won the Cinema Stakes in California at the mile and one-quarter distance of the Belmont Derby and is another with credentials to be competitive. Silver Knott missed by a nose in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall and in his most recent race was third behind Kalik in the Pennine Ridge. Also in the Pennine Ridge, Far Bridge finished second one month after also finishing second behind Webslinger in the American Turf. Boppy O just won the Jersey Derby Stakes last month and adds more depth to the field. Mendelssohns March hopes to improve off a runner-up effort behind Webslinger in the Audubon. Mondego has won two races in a row on the Belmont turf course and steps into a stakes race for the first time, while both Cyber Ninja and Redistricting step up in class off maiden wins on the turf.

Top contenders to win:

The Foxes has been facing tougher horses, and running faster, than the rest of the Belmont Derby Invitational field so gets top billing. Although fifth of in his most recent race (June 3), the English Derby, the colt had rallied to third with about an eighth of a mile to go in the 14-horse field and really wasn’t disgraced. Not only that but winner Auguste Rodin returned to win the Irish Derby last week, and runner-up King of Steel won the King Edward Stakes at Royal Ascot on June 23. As important, the 112 Equibase Speed Figure The Foxes earned in the English Derby is by far the highest figure earned by any horse in this race, and the highest last race figure in the field. The next best last race figure 99 was earned by Wizard of Westwood, and the best earned by any horse in the field in any race is 106 by Webslinger in the American Turf Stakes in May. Prior to that, The Foxes ran even better and faster, earning a 117 figure when winning the Dante Stakes at the distance of one-mile and five-sixteenths, one-sixteenth of a mile more than the 10-furlong distance of this race. The only other horses in the field to have run this far or farther are Wizard of Westwood, who won the Cinema Stakes at this distance (with a 99 figure) and Cyber Ninja, who won a maiden race at the distance of one mile and three-eighths last month with an 84 figure. World class jockey Oisin Murphy has ridden The Foxes in his last three starts and travels from Europe to ride, providing even more reason this horse is the one to beat in this year’s Belmont Derby.

Redistricting was bred in Europe but was purchased and sent to the U.S., and to the care of top trainer Chad Brown. He did not make his first career start until last month but that race on June 3 apparently was good enough for Brown to consider stepping up significantly in class to race here. Brown has been pretty good at assessing whether a horse in his care is good enough to make this kind of move, as per a Race Lens query over the last five years, Brown’s starters have won or finished second in nine of 20 graded stakes race on turf following their maiden wins. Brown added to that number three weeks ago when Prerequisite won the Wonder Again Stakes on the Belmont turf following a maiden win, and jockey Flavien Prat was aboard that day as well as rides Redistricting in this race. Although the 89 figure would need marked improvement to get into the 112 to 117 range of figures The Foxes has earned in his last two races, it must be noted Prerequisite improved her figure 16 points in the Wonder Again Stakes from her maiden win, meaning that kind of improvement may be forthcoming for Redistricting.

Click image to purchase shirt.

Webslinger has now won three of six graded stakes on grass, including two in a row. He won the American Turf Stakes on Kentucky Derby day by a nose with a career-best 106 figure, then although regressing to a 96 figure one month later when winning the Audubon Stakes, the victory was impressive as he made a four wide bid on the turn to go from fourth to first and easily held his lead the entire length of the stretch. Considering Webslinger stretched out nicely from the mile and one-sixteenth turf distance of the American Turf to the mile and one-eighth distance of the Audubon, it appears the additional one-eighth of a mile in the Belmont Derby could be within his reach.

Honorable mention goes to Far Bridge, who won the first two races of his career, both turf routes, in January and March, then was beaten a nose by Webslinger in the American Derby, earning the same 106 figure as the winner. One month later, Far Bridge rallied from sixth of seven to get second behind Kalik in the Pennine Ridge Stakes, after Kalik was allowed to set an extremely slow and uncontested early pace. Kalik may not get that kind of easy lead this time because Wizard of Westwood appears to have the same running style. Any pace battle between Kalik and Wizard of Westwood could help Far Bridge to be as competitive in the late stages of the race as he was in the American Turf.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Boppy O (94), Cyber Ninja (84), Kalik (97), Mendelssohns March (94), Mondego (93), Silver Knott (106) and Wizard of Westwood (99).

Win contenders:

The Foxes

Redistricting

Webslinger 

Far Bridge can be considered a contender for at least a minor award.