The $500,000, Grade 3 Ohio Derby Saturday at Thistledown offers the winner $300,000 and brings together a field of eight 3-year-olds, with five of them either stakes winners or stakes-placed to date.
Leading the field in accomplishments is Two Phil's, who ran valiantly last month when leading in the stretch in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve before settling for second. Lord Miles is likely to be well regarded by racing fans, having won the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino when last seen in April. Bishops Bay is another strong contender as he enters the Ohio Derby after missing by a head last month in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes to eventual Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets winner Arcangelo. Hayes Strike has proven he belongs with the some of the best 3-year-olds, winning the Private Terms Stakes in March and the Texas Derby last month. Henry Q won the Mine That Bird Derby in New Mexico in February and followed that up with third-place finishes in the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby and Peter Pan, so he is another who appears to fit with these. Agnello's Dream, Last Cookie and Timesatappin all step up in class off allowance race efforts in which none of the trio was victorious.
Win contenders:
Bishops Bay is my top choice to win this year's Ohio Derby, adding to the hot hand trainer Brad Cox has held this month in stakes races for 3-year-olds, having saddled Idiomatic to win the Shawnee Stakes three weeks ago and similarly saddling Salute the Stars to victory in the Pegasus Stakes last weekend. Bishops Bay has run three times to date and all three were "A" efforts, first winning in his debut in February and next prevailing gamely by a neck when stretched out to two turns for the first time in March. Returning on May 13 in the Peter Pan Stakes, Bishops Bay pressed the pacesetter from the moment the gate opened, then got the lead by a head before engaging with eventual winner Arcangelo in a head-and-head battle for the final eighth of a mile. Although losing at the end, Bishops Bay ran markedly better than in his previous race, going from an 88 Equibase Speed Figure to 97. Arcangelo returned two weeks ago and improved to a 100 figure in the 1 ½-mile Belmont Stakes, and with Bishops Bay running the same 1 1/8-mile trip as he did in the Peter Pan it can be assumed he's going to improve once more, particularly having put in a very strong five-furlong workout in 59.40 one week ago.
Hayes Strike has won two of his last three races, both stakes for 3-year-olds. The first of the two was on March 18 when he won the Private Terms Stakes, earning a 91 figure in the process. After a poor seventh-place effort in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in April, Hayes Strike improved to a 100 figure in his most recent race on May 29, putting in a visually impressive rally from ninth with a quarter-mile to run, then to seventh with an eighth of a mile left in the race, and then continuing on to win the Texas Derby by a nose. Jockey Cristian Torres was riding Hayes Strike for the first time in that race and rides back again, so we can assume the same effort – or an even better one – could be forthcoming in the Ohio Derby.
Lord Miles posted the 59.25-1 upset to win the Wood Memorial in April in his last race. He had earned a spot in the Kentucky Derby field with his Wood victory but did not run in the Derby and has been in steady training since. Although he had run poorly in the Holy Bull Stakes (sixth) in February and in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (fifth) in March, Lord Miles showed a lot of moxie in the Wood when battling head-and-head with both Hit Show and Dreamlike for the last eighth of a mile. He earned a 100 Equibase Speed Figure in the win, and certainly if he can repeat that effort following more than two months off Lord Miles will be a contender to win this race.
As to Two Phil's, I think he will run well again but not well enough to win, the reason being his tendency to lose ground in the final eighth of a mile. Starting with his 2023 debut in the Lecomte Stakes this past January, Two Phil's rallied from fifth in the early stages to get to second, within a head of the leader with an eight of a mile to go, only to be beaten more than two lengths at the end. One month later in the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque Crescent City Ford, Two Phil's rallied from seventh to get within inches of the leader in the stretch, but was passed and settled for third. After winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park in March, Two Phil's indisputably ran the best race of his career in the Kentucky Derby, earning a 102 figure. However after rallying from a stalking position to make the lead entering the stretch, Two Phil's once again didn't have the needed physical or mental energy, and he was passed by Mage near the wire and barely held off Angel of Empire for the runner-up spot. So even though his Equibase Speed Figures have improved in his last three races, from 92 to 97 to 102, I feel he may be vulnerable to a more tenacious foe in the final yards and will end up second, or even third, in this year's Ohio Derby.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Agnello's Dream (87), Henry Q (97), Last Cookie (77) and Timesatappin (74).
Win Contenders in preference order:
Bishops Bay
Hayes Strike
Lord Miles
Pick 4
2-9-4-4
2-9-4-4
$130
Pick 5
5-2-9-4-4
5-2-9-4-4
$541
Pick 6 Jackpot
1/4-5-2-9-4-4
1/4-5-2-9-4-4
$378
Superfecta
4-3-8-7
4-3-8-7
$1
Pick 4
2-9-4-4
2-9-4-4
$130
Pick 5
5-2-9-4-4
5-2-9-4-4
$541
Pick 6 Jackpot
1/4-5-2-9-4-4
1/4-5-2-9-4-4
$378
Superfecta
4-3-8-7
4-3-8-7
$1
