In 1992, an unheralded longshot named Lil E. Tee sprung an upset victory in the Kentucky Derby. In 2004, Smarty Jones started as the Kentucky Derby favorite and promptly took home top honors. What did Lil E. Tee and Smarty Jones have in common? They both prepped for the Kentucky Derby at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, along the way competing in the Southwest Stakes. When Lil E. Tee finished third in the Southwest, it was a one-mile ungraded stakes with a $100,000 purse. The conditions were the same when Smarty Jones visited the Southwest winner’s circle.
The Southwest has come a long way since the days of Lil E. Tee and Smarty Jones. The Southwest Stakes is now a 1 1/16-mile, Grade 3 stakes worth $750,000 and it awards Kentucky Derby qualification points to its top five finishers on a 20-8-6-4-2 basis.
These alluring prizes have attracted a strong field of nine horses to the 2023 Southwest, which is slated to take place at Oaklawn this Saturday. There are many talented horses in the entries, but it may take a special performance for anyone to defeat #6 Arabian Knight, who ranks among the most exciting young horses in training.
Arabian Knight sold for $2.3 million as a 2-year-old in training and delivered a performance worthy of his purchase price when debuting in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland last fall. Leading all the way through quick quarter-mile fractions of :22.47, :45.78, and 1:09.82 did nothing to tire the son of champion Uncle Mo, who powered clear down the homestretch to win under a hand ride by 7 1/4 lengths. By any metric, this was a huge performance. Arabian Knight stopped the clock in a snappy 1:21.98 and received a 104 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in the Southwest field. Furthermore, the quality of competition Arabian Knight defeated was solid; distant runner-up Determinedly has won two of his three subsequent starts and finished third in the Gun Runner Stakes on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Arabian Knight hasn’t run since Nov. 5, but he’s been training up a storm at Santa Anita, most recently clocking a fast five furlongs in :59.20. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Southwest five times, including last year with Newgrange, and Arabian Knight looks ready to take home top honors under Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez.
So how should we bet the Southwest? Let’s plan on playing Arabian Knight on top of exotic wagers like the trifecta and superfecta, which respectively require us to select the top-three and top-four finishers in the correct order.
For second place, #2 Corona Bolt and #3 Jace’s Road are two of the most obvious contenders. Corona Bolt boasts a 2-for-2 record for red-hot trainer Brad Cox, including a 6 3/4-length romp in the Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fair Grounds last month. He looks like a possible graded stakes star in the making, but the speedy son of Bolt d’Oro has never run farther than 6 1/2 furlongs, and engaging with Arabian Knight in a battle for early supremacy could prove challenging.
Jace’s Road has no distance questions to answer, considering he dominated the 1 1/16-mile Gun Runner Stakes by 5 1/2 lengths. Jace’s Road is a speedster who led from start to finish through modest fractions in the Gun Runner, but he figures to encounter a quicker pace while squaring off against Corona Bolt and Arabian Knight in the Southwest. All this speed may provide #1 Sun Thunder with an opportunity to crash the top three. Conditioned by hot trainer Kenny McPeek (a 24% winner at Oaklawn this meet), Sun Thunder finished a rallying third in his debut dashing seven furlongs at Churchill Downs, beaten only by Determinedly and next-out maiden winner Shopper’s Revenge.
This effort proved to be a perfect prep for Sun Thunder’s route debut in a one-mile maiden special weight on New Year’s Eve at Oaklawn. Early trouble left Sun Thunder 5 1/2 lengths off the pace, but the son of four-time leading sire Into Mischief unleashed an outside rally to sweep past rivals and dominate by 6 1/2 lengths. If a fast pace unfolds in the Southwest, look for Sun Thunder to be gaining ground strongly down the homestretch.
Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity third-place finisher #7 Red Route One and Oaklawn allowance-optional claiming winner #8 Hit Show are other horses with a shot to crack the top four.
Wagering Strategy on a $20 Budget
$3.50 trifecta: 6 with 2 with 1,3,7,8 ($14)
What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 10th race, $3.50 trifecta 6 with 2 with 1,3,7,8
$3 trifecta: 6 with 1,3 with 2 ($6)
What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 10th race, $3 trifecta 6 with 1,3 with 2
Wagering Strategy on a $50 Budget
$4.50 trifecta: 6 with 2 with 1,3,7,8 ($18)
What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 10th race, $3.50 trifecta 6 with 2 with 1,3,7,8
$4 trifecta: 6 with 1,3 with 2 ($8)
What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 10th race, $3 trifecta 6 with 1,3 with 2
$1.50 superfecta: 6 with 2 with 1,3,7,8 with 1,3,7,8 ($18)
What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 10th race, $1 superfecta 6 with 2 with 1,3,7,8 with 1,3,7,8
$1 superfecta: 6 with 1,3 with 2 with 1,3,7,8 ($6)
What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 10th race, $1 superfecta 6 with 1,3 with 2 with 1,3,7,8
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Pick 3
4/6/7-7-6/8
4/6/7-7-6/8
$15
Superfecta
6-7-5-1
6-7-5-1
$24
Pick 3
4/6/7-7-6/8
4/6/7-7-6/8
$15
Superfecta
6-7-5-1
6-7-5-1
$24
