Betting the Sam F. Davis on a $25 Budget

February 9th, 2017 by J. Keeler Johnson

Undefeated Fact Finding makes his graded stakes debut in Saturday's Sam F. Davis Stakes. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs has long been a productive early prep race on the road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands—in fact, the list of winners since 2005 includes Andromeda’s Hero, Bluegrass Cat, and Destin, three colts that placed in Triple Crown races.

But the 2017 edition of the Sam F. Davis might be the deepest in recent memory, attracting a top-notch field of nine horses led by #8 McCraken. The son of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper went unbeaten in three starts last year, including a pair of impressive late-running wins in the Street Sense Stakes and Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs.

From a class perspective, McCraken is clearly the best horse in the Sam F. Davis—he’s already beaten horses like Guest Suite (who came back to win the Grade 3 LeComte Stakes) and Uncontested (who romped to victory in the Smarty Jones Stakes.) Furthermore, McCraken’s effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes was exceptional—on a day when frontrunners and speed horses were doing very well, McCraken was the only horse in the Kentucky Jockey Club field to make an impact from the back of the pack, closing strongly from ninth place to win by 1 ¼ lengths.

The only question mark is whether McCraken is ready to run his best race off a layoff. While trainer Ian Wilkes has an excellent record at Tampa Bay Downs with horses returning from layoffs (7-for-21 over the last five years), this race is just the starting point of McCraken’s season, and with bigger goals down the road, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a little short of his best for the Sam F. Davis. Furthermore, since McCraken also figures to be a heavy favorite, it might be worth taking a shot against him with a horse offering better odds.

McCraken wins the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. (Coady Photography)

One horse that has really caught my eye is #3 Fact Finding, who—like McCraken—is unbeaten in three starts. Trained by Todd Pletcher, who has won six of the last 11 editions of the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Fact Finding won the one-mile Smooth Air Stakes at Gulfstream Park in December in dominating fashion, scoring by seven lengths over a sloppy track. Four of the horses that he defeated have run since then, and all have improved their Beyer speed figures by significant margins.

Fact Finding was actually entered to run last Saturday in the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes, where he would have faced a very tough field, but he was scratched to await this race instead. I think this could be a good move, as Fact Finding’s excellent speed and proven ability to settle off the lead should help him work out a great trip, probably stalking #1 State of Honor and #4 Chance of Luck early on. From there, he could be poised to get the jump on McCraken and hold him off in the homestretch.

Also worthy of a close look are #6 Wild Shot and #9 No Dozing. Wild Shot has a lot of early speed and ran a big race in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, stalking the pace before tiring just slightly to finish 1 ¼ lengths behind McCraken. He had previously finished an excellent third to champion Classic Empire in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and is clearly a talented colt, although it’s possible that he could benefit from getting a race under his belt—his recent workouts have been significantly slower than the ones he posted prior to the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

As for No Dozing, he won his first two starts last year before finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Futurity (just a head behind Wild Shot) and second in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes, beaten 2 ½ lengths by Mo Town. These were particularly strong efforts given that he didn’t get a very good trip in either race, racing wide and making early moves just to reach contention.

To put it simply, the Sam F. Davis is a competitive and fairly wide-open race where it’s difficult to split the main contenders. However, I’ll give the slightest edge to Fact Finding, who could offer the best odds among the four main contenders. Here’s how I would bet the race:

Wagering Strategy on a $25 Budget

$4 win on 3 Fact Finding ($4)

$4 exacta 8 with 3,6,9 ($12)

$3 exacta 3,6,9 with 8 ($9)

Good luck, and enjoy the race!