After completing his juvenile season with victories in the 2024 American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse and FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by TAA to nail down champion 2-year-old male honors, Citizen Bull is expected to make his 3-year-old debut on a busy day for the Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve.

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Citizen Bull is listed as the 6-5 favorite in the $200,000 Robert. B. Lewis Stakes Feb. 1 at Santa Anita Park, one of three races offering Derby qualifying points Saturday. Based on recent history, the champion’s performance Saturday figures to immediately offer clues to his ability to continue progressing toward this year’s classics.

Of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners since 2000, the lone pair to capture the Kentucky Derby  both opened their 3-year-old seasons with victories. Street Sense followed his 2006 Juvenile win with a score in the 2007 Tampa Bay Derby while Nyquist debuted at 3 with a victory in the 2016 San Vicente Stakes following his 2015 Juvenile triumph.

A look at the 3-year-old debuts and Kentucky Derby performances of Juvenile winners serves as a reminder of how tough it is for a top 2-year-old to continue forward with classic form. Thirteen of the Juvenile winners since 2000 did not start in the Derby and five from that group either did not race again or made their 3-year-old debuts after the classics.

Only six Juvenile winners since 2000 won 3-year-old debuts conducted before the Kentucky Derby. It’s a tough game.

As for Saturday, the toughest competition for Bob Baffert-trained Citizen Bull is expected to come from stablemates Madaket Road and Rodriguez . Both enter off impressive second-out maiden wins at Santa Anita, with Madaket Road earning that victory Dec. 26 and Rodriguez scoring Jan. 4.

Besides the Lewis, this week’s Road schedule sees Aqueduct playing host to the $250,000 Withers Stakes and Gulfstream Park offering the $265,000 Holy Bull Stakes. All three races offer 20 qualifying points to the winner and 42 points overall for the top five finishers.