BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 3.

King’s inaugural Dozen for the 151^st Derby assesses prospects among the crop of newly-turned 3-year-olds in advance of the upcoming Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 25.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Sovereignty

After finishing strongly in a pair one-turn races in New York, Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott ran him two turns as a maiden in the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense Stakes Oct. 27 at Churchill Downs, and the colt circled the field to score easily by five lengths. He defeated a quality lineup that included runner-up Tiztastic, a subsequent third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and third-place Sandman, an allowance optional claiming winner at Oaklawn Park this winter who is entered in the Jan. 25 Southwest Stakes at that track. Given time off after the Street Sense for a 3-year-old campaign, Sovereignty has worked just twice at Payson Park this winter. He begins atop the Dozen due to his potential to excel at the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 ¼ miles.

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2. Barnes

Since selling for $3.2 million at The Saratoga Sale at Fasig-Tipton in 2023, expectations have been high for this powerfully built colt, and he has delivered on that promise in two starts. First, he overcame a troubled trip to win his Nov. 27 debut at Churchill Downs at 5 ½ furlongs, then stepped up to stakes company, romping in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes Jan. 4 at Santa Anita Park. Those performances for Churchill-reinstated trainer Bob Baffert, a six-time Kentucky Derby winner, and his obvious good looks and pedigree, resulted in his closing as the 6-1 favorite among individual betting interests in the latest Kentucky Derby Future Pool.

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3. East Avenue

Favored in the Nov. 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA at Del Mar after rolling on the lead in two outings, his race was essentially over at the start when he stumbled. Tyler Gaffalione rode him patiently rather than rush him forward after the disastrous beginning, but East Avenue never offered a bid and checked in ninth. Winner of the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last year as well as a maiden race at Ellis Park, he has three sharp works under his belt this winter in New Orleans as he readies for the Feb. 15 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds.

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4. Citizen Bull

Having won both the American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse at Santa Anita Park and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he is a near certainty to be named champion 2-year-old male at the Eclipse Awards ceremony Jan. 23. Evaluating the strength of his Juvenile is challenging considering how it unfolded when East Avenue blew the break. That took away Citizen Bull’s principal pace rival, and with most of the other speed horses being fellow Bob Baffert trainees, none of their riders wanted to go head to head early with a stablemate. Still, Citizen Bull’s speed allowed him to capitalize, and it’s to his benefit that he possesses it.

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5. Grande

Debuting against a stacked maiden field Jan. 11 going a mile at Gulfstream Park, he impressed with a good-looking victory. Away a little sluggishly from his inside post, he was rushed up by Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez to secure a forward position after a quarter-mile in :23.61. Chasing Camp Hale, the twice-raced favorite, down the backstretch, Grande ran a quick second quarter and ultimately wore down the favorite to win by 2 ½ lengths. His final time was modest, 1:37.89 after a final eighth in :13.75, but the ordinary closing split was a side effect of the lively backstretch tempo.

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6. Patch Adams

Racing with blinkers off after running third Oct. 11 at Keeneland, he dusted maidens at Churchill Downs Nov. 30 by pressing the pace and accelerating away for a 10-length victory. He zipped seven furlongs in 1:20.77, not far off champion Groupie Doll’s track record of 1:20.44 set in 2012. Less enthusiastically, four horses have raced out of this maiden contest through Jan. 21, and all were out of the money in subsequent starts. His performance as the favorite in Saturday’s Southwest Stakes should provide a further gauge of his promise.

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7. Disco Time

His winning time in the Lecomte Stakes Jan. 18 at Fair Grounds was slow –1 1/16 miles over a sloppy track in 1:47.07 – well off the older horse Hit Show’s 1:44.91 when he captured the Louisiana Stakes Presented by Relyne GI by Hagyard a half-hour earlier. Still, the simple fact that Disco Time won is noteworthy. Accustomed to racing close to the pace, he was shuffled back to 10^th early in a scramble to the first turn, then fanned extremely wide coming into the stretch. He defeated legitimate foes in runner-up Built, a stakes winner, and third-place Innovator, who had tested Barnes in a maiden race in the fall at Churchill Downs.

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8. Chancer McPatrick  

After winning his first three starts, including the seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes and one-mile Champagne Stakes, his season ended disappointingly with a sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, his first start at 1 1/16 miles and around two turns. The absence of pace in the Juvenile after East Avenue broke poorly did not suit his late-running style, and Chancer McPatrick has since had minor ankle surgery. Later than others to resume training, he has a tighter window to get two preps before the Triple Crown, with trainer Chad Brown mentioning the March 8 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs and April 5 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland as targets.

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9. Journalism

The Los Alamitos Futurity Stakes was a short but quality race last month, luring Baffert trainees Gaming and Getaway Car – respectively second and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Yet neither could keep pace with this strong finisher in the lane, who went on to score a 3 ½-length victory. He is 2-for-2 in routes after a debut third in a sprint. Trainer Michael McCarthy told Daily Racing Form the colt would resume breezing later this week after getting sick. He is pointed to the March 1 DK Horse San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park.

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10. Rodriguez

After running second behind the eventual San Vicente Stakes runner-up Romanesque in a Nov. 23 maiden race at Del Mar, this colt stepped up second out by whipping maidens by seven lengths with a mile in 1:35.91 Jan. 4 at Santa Anita Park. That race earned him a flashy speed figure, albeit with a sweet trip. He faced only five rivals and made the lead from the inside post with a short run to the first of two turns.

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11. Coal Battle

He runs for a self-described “little guy” trainer in Lonnie Briley, who has guided him to three stakes victories and a 4-for-6 record, including a perfect mark on dirt. Typically a closer, this 3-year-old showed a new dimension by racing on the lead in winning the Jan. 4 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, largely due to that race unfolding with a slow early tempo. After keeping an active racing schedule, he sits out Saturday’s Southwest Stakes to await the Feb. 22 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn.

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12. Hypnus

This 3-year-old, described by trainer Kenny McPeek to Fair Grounds publicity as “a beast” before debuting there Jan. 18, lived up to his trainer’s high opinion by rallying for a 2 ½-length victory going 1 1/16 miles in the slop. His time of 1:46.33 may not leap out, but it was quicker than the slowly run Lecomte on the same card. He showed professionalism and a late finish. Take note of his pedigree, as he’s by record-setting stallion Into Mischief, the leading general sire for the past six years, and out of Grade 1 winner Dream Tree.