The DraftKings Travers Stakes serves as a major inflection point in the season for 3-year-olds, hence the nickname “Mid-Summer Derby” that signifies the 1 ¼-mile Saratoga race’s importance.
The Travers usually draws a deep, competitive field, but this year feels a bit different with the hype meter climbing thanks to the presence of superstar filly Thorpedo Anna. The Longines Kentucky Oaks winner adds to a field that boasts Belmont Stakes and NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes winner Dornoch, champion Fierceness, Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve runner-up Sierra Leone, and unbeaten stakes winner Unmatched Wisdom among a field of eight.
Not only is the 2024 Travers a compelling horse race, but storylines abound.
Dornoch can all but cement champion 3-year-old male honors with a win for a partnership that includes retired Major League Baseball star Jayson Werth. Thorpedo Anna tackles males after runaway Grade 1 wins in the Kentucky Oaks, the DK Horse Acorn Stakes, and the Coaching Club American Oaks. Last year’s champion 2-year-old male, Fierceness, has become the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of racing, as capable of a dominant performance as he is of a disappointment. Sierra Leone, once considered the division leader, has only himself to blame for the lack of a career-defining win on his résumé but can rectify that on Saturday at 6:10 p.m. ET.
Here are five questions that must be answered in the 2024 Travers, which is shaping up to be THE race of the summer:
Will the real Fierceness please stand up? When Fierceness runs his “A” race, he’s the fastest 3-year-old in this year’s class. The problem is, it’s almost impossible to guess if and when he will unfurl a monster effort. Sure, you can look at the past performances and notice he has alternated a good race with a bad one and, based upon that pattern, he’s due for a dud in the Travers. But I don’t think it’s that simple. Even owner Mike Repole said this week that it’s difficult to predict what type of race his colt will run in a given stakes. I guess this is the real Fierceness, a racehorse with dazzling ability but maddening inconsistency.
If I had to guess, I’d say maybe there is a 30% chance last year’s champion 2-year-old male runs his race, which would make him the most likely winner in the field. Speed figures indicate an “A” race sends Fierceness to the winner’s circle, but I’ll fade him here because of the 1 ¼-mile distance, the expected short price, and the presence of several other early speed horses.
How good is the unbeaten runner Unmatched Wisdom? The short and noncommittal answer is: I think he’s really good. Unfortunately for Unmatched Wisdom, the Travers isn’t a stakes race for really good, it’s for the best 3-year-old dirt horses on the planet at the season’s midpoint.
Whether or not Unmatched Wisdom fits with the likes of Dornoch, Fierceness, Thorpedo Anna, and Sierra Leone is the much more pertinent question. Based on Equibase Speed Figures, Unmatched Wisdom is right on par with the top runners. His Beyer Speed Figures, on the other hand, indicate he still has some catching up to do on Fierceness, Dornoch, and Sierra Leone. Yet with only three races on his résumé, including a one-length win in his stakes debut in the Curlin Stakes, there is significant reason to believe there is room to improve. If he does take a step forward, Unmatched Wisdom is a win candidate.
They say “pace makes the race,” so what are we looking at in terms of a Travers pace scenario? There has been much talk about how Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, champion Fierceness, and star filly Thorpedo Anna all boast tactical speed and the pace could be frisky in the Travers… and that is true. There also are others in the Travers with early speed, such as the aforementioned Unmatched Wisdom and Ohio Derby winner Batten Down. In fact, the latter posted back-to-back dominant front-running wins before settling off the pace in the Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun and fading late in a third-place finish behind Fierceness and Sierra Leone. It would not surprise me to see Batten Down’s jockey Junior Alvarado be very aggressive early in the Travers and challenge Dornoch for the early lead. That probably would be Batten Down’s best shot to win.
Nobody wants to lose the Travers in the opening quarter-mile, but I do believe the pace will be brisk for a 1 ¼-mile race and there will be multiple runners fighting for the lead or to secure an ideal position tucked in just behind the pacesetter(s).
That could set the Travers up well for stalker Corporate Power, the runner-up to Unmatched Wisdom in the Curlin Stakes, as well as closers Honor Marie and Sierra Leone.
Will Thorpedo Anna wind up leaving the starting gate as the favorite? There is no doubt the Kentucky Oaks winner riding a dominant three-race winning streak – all in Grade 1 races against 3-year-old fillies – will soak up a ton of betting dollars as a strong sentimental favorite facing males for the first time.
However, I think Dornoch’s back-to-back wins in the Belmont Stakes and Haskell plus Fierceness’s potential for brilliance will lead to one of them being favored. I do believe it will be close in the betting among Dornoch (5-2 on the morning line), Fierceness (3-1 morning line), Thorpedo Anna (3-1 morning line), and Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone (7-2 morning line). It's a damn good horse race!
My guess on the final odds is Dornoch at about 2-1, Thorpedo Anna and Fierceness at about 5-2, and Sierra Leone at 5-1 or so.
Can Sierra Leone puts it all together and earn a statement win? Sierra Leone has won some big races, no doubt, including a Grade 1 victory in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, but he came up a nose short in the Kentucky Derby after being in ideal position in the stretch and then in the Belmont Stakes when third as the favorite. The Gun Runner colt has had his issues lugging in during the stretch run that cost him in the Triple Crown races, but a Travers win would surely wipe away much, if not all, of that disappointment.
I was encouraged by Sierra Leone’s runner-up finish to Fierceness in the Jim Dandy Stakes. He made an eye-catching move on the turn to rally into contention from last and didn’t react negatively when Batten Down came in on him and crowded him in early stretch. No, he did not catch Fierceness in the Jim Dandy, but Fierceness had a dream trip in that race tucked in just behind a moderate pace. With at least three or four Travers runners who prefer to be on or near the lead, the Travers could set up much better for Sierra Leone. He’s very consistent with three wins, three seconds, and one third in seven races so if he runs straight in the Saratoga stretch, yes, I believe he will earn his marquee victory in the Travers.
THE PICK: Sierra Leone
BETTING STRATEGY: Play Sierra Leone to win and on top of Thorpedo Anna, Dornoch, and Corporate Power in the trifecta.
TRIFECTA: 2-1-7
Pick 4
4-5/6-3-8
4-5/6-3-8
$314
Pick 5
3-4-5/6-3-8
3-4-5/6-3-8
$4,308
Pick 6
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
$102,094
Pick 6
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
$592
Superfecta
8-1-2-7
8-1-2-7
$11
Pick 4
4-5/6-3-8
4-5/6-3-8
$314
Pick 5
3-4-5/6-3-8
3-4-5/6-3-8
$4,308
Pick 6
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
$102,094
Pick 6
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
$592
Superfecta
8-1-2-7
8-1-2-7
$11
