The fields for the 14 races that comprise the Breeders’ Cup World Championships really begin to come into focus in summer and fall. This regular feature will offer a snapshot profile of one of the previous weekend’s standout stars, usually a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series winner, and whether I’m buying or selling their chances to win Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar.

This week we take a closer look at Cogburn, who on Sept. 7 dominated the Ainsworth Turf Sprint Stakes by 3 ¼ lengths at Kentucky Downs. The 5-year-old Not This Time horse had already locked down a spot in the starting gate for the Nov. 2 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint at Del Mar via a win in the Jaipur Stakes presented by Resolute Racing June 8 at Saratoga Race Course, setting a North American course record time of :59.80 for 5 ½ furlongs. After his second win in a Challenge Series race last weekend, he heads into the 41^st World Championships as a prohibitive favorite in the turf sprint division.

Accomplishments: It isn’t on the Bill Mott/Cigar level in terms of a surface switch, but the dirt-to-turf transferal Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has done with Cogburn is quite admirable. Asmussen has always been very receptive to his horses’ individual abilities and is willing to slot them in races where they have the best chance to succeed once they mature – recall how he shortened Jackie’s Warrior in distance after trying that colt on the Kentucky Derby trail and then conditioned him into a champion dirt sprinter. In Cogburn’s case, Asmussen kept his charge at sprint distances from the outset but raced him exclusively on dirt through his first eight starts, picking up three wins and a close second in a Grade 3 race at Pimlico.

Cogburn started to falter at that level in spring 2023, however, finishing eighth and then seventh in a pair of Grade 3 dirt dashes. So Asmussen switched him to turf for a start in the five-furlong Chamberlain Bridge Stakes at Lone Star Park … and since then, Cogburn is 6-for-7 sprinting on turf and has reached a new peak at age 5 this year.

In his three turf wins last year, Cogburn stalked and then pounced, timing his rally just enough to win by less than a length. He tried the same in his final 2023 start, the Ainsworth Turf Sprint held at six furlongs on Kentucky Downs’ undulating turf course, and made his usual excellent effort only to finish fifth, beaten by a half-length behind repeat winner Gear Jockey. This year, Irad Ortiz Jr. assumed riding duties for Cogburn’s debut in the Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes Presented by Sentient Jet May 4 at Churchill Downs, and the horse used more speed early, pressing the pace and then taking over in upper stretch to win going away by 2 ¼ lengths. Ortiz followed a similar strategy in the Jaipur Stakes in June and again last Saturday in his second attempt at winning the Ainsworth Turf Sprint, and Cogburn flat-out routed strong, deep fields in each race, with Ortiz sitting motionless on his mount through blazing early fractions and only providing minimal urging to keep Cogburn focused in deep stretch. To wit: Gear Jockey and One Timer, who finished 1-2 and just ahead of Cogburn in last year’s Ainsworth Turf Sprint, checked in sixth and seventh this year, more than five and six lengths behind, respectively, as the winner finished six furlongs in a swift 1:07.68.

Speed Figures: Cogburn has dialed it up to 11, per Nigel Tufnel, in terms of his speed figures this summer. Obviously, setting a North American record for blitzing 5 ½ furlongs on turf will help that process. He earned a 111 Beyer Speed Figure and 115 Equibase Speed Figure in the Jaipur, which was run on firm turf at Saratoga, and his numbers dipped to a still-impressive 107 Beyer and 113 Equibase Speed Figure in the Ainsworth Turf Sprint. Last Saturday’s race was also held on firm turf at Kentucky Downs, which has had a virtually rain-free meet through six racecards and resultingly has had several other course records set at various distances. Over the past year-plus, Cogburn has won two turf sprint stakes on courses rated less than firm – the Troy Stakes last summer at Saratoga, held on soft ground, and then this year’s Twin Spires Turf Sprint at Churchill Downs on a course rated as good. His speed figures in those two races were a notch lower than his current elite level, but still competitive with any other turf sprint contender on these shores.

Cogburn dominated from start to finish in Jaipur. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Looking Ahead: Cogburn just erased – in emphatic fashion – the one blemish on his turf résumé by winning the Ainsworth Turf Cup Sprint in his second try, and Asmussen told Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh that Saturday’s race would be his final prep before the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Del Mar. He’ll be trying the Del Mar turf course for the first time and shortening up to five furlongs for the first time since May and June 2023, when he won his first two turf stakes at that distance in Texas. It shouldn’t matter much. Del Mar’s course is almost certain to be firm the first weekend in November, and even if it isn’t, as noted above, Cogburn has already proved his mettle on “off” going. He’s separated himself from the rest of the North American turf sprint division, as last year’s Turf Sprint victor Nobals has gone winless in two 2024 starts and could only manage fourth (while running well!) behind Cogburn in the Ainsworth Turf Sprint. Top West Coast turf sprinter Motorious is 3-for-3 at Del Mar, including last month’s repeat win in the Green Flash Handicap, but he’s a come-from-behind type and figures to be getting into gear way too late if Cogburn and Ortiz employ their recent speed-favoring tactics.

That leaves the Euro sprinters – standouts such as Big Evs, who won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Santa Anita, and Bradsell, who was scratched from last year’s Turf Sprint at that track and is 2-for-2 this year with a recent win in the five-furlong Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes held at five furlongs. Both prefer firm turf and racing closer to the early pace, and if they ship to Southern California should be taken seriously. All that said, Cogburn rates as a splurge-worthy “buy” heading into this year’s Breeders’ Cup based on his current dominance and could be one of the stars of the two-day event provided he stays healthy and trains well over the next two months.