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The fields for the 14 races that comprise the Breeders’ Cup World Championships really begin to come into focus in summer and fall. This regular feature will offer a snapshot profile of one of the previous weekend’s standout stars, usually a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series winner, and whether I’m buying or selling their chances to win Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar.
This week we take a closer look at Scottish Lassie, winner of the $400,000 Frizette Stakes Oct. 5 held during the Belmont at the Big A meet at Aqueduct, which earned the McKinzie filly a guaranteed spot in the $2 million NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies via the “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series.
Accomplishments: It took a leap of faith for the owners of Scottish Lassie to enter the 2-year-old filly in the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes after she finished a well-beaten third in her career debut Sept. 1 at Saratoga Race Course. But they came away from that race encouraged by her first start and, when asked about the decision to enter her in one of the most important stakes in the country for 2-year-old fillies, Steve Weston of co-owner Parkland Thoroughbreds said they felt like it was the best option.
“We all agreed that if we had won that [first] race, what would we have done? Go to the Frizette. OK, so, let’s pretend we won and go to the Frizette,” Weston said. “If we don’t win, then we can go back and win a maiden at any time. We have nothing to lose and everything to gain.”
Scottish Lassie rewarded their decision to roll the dice with a runaway nine-length romp in her second start, punching her ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.
“The way she ran today, she could compete with any other 2-year-old in the country,” Weston said of Scottish Lassie, who the ownership group purchased for $85,000 earlier this year at the OBS March 2-year-olds in training sale.
Racing a one-turn mile, Scottish Lassie stalked the pace through a half-mile in :46.20 and turned a half-length deficit into a nine-length margin of victory with a final quarter-mile in :24.93. She covered the final eighth of a mile in :12.59 to complete the race in 1:36.73, roughly a fifth of a second slower than males ran the same distance a race later when Chancer McPatrick won the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes in 1:36.51.
The Frizette victory gave trainer Jorge Abreu, a former assistant to top trainer Chad Brown, his first career graded stakes win. Abreu finished second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies with Jody’s Pride and third with his only other Breeders’ Cup starter, Stellar Agent in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.
“It means a lot, especially with this filly,” Abreu told Daily Racing Form. “I bought her, I trained her, I picked the races. Steve Weston [head of Parkland Thoroughbreds] is one of my main clients. And it’s not a Grade 2 or Grade 3, it’s a Grade 1.”
Speed Figures: Scottish Lassie improved 21 points from a 74 Equibase Speed Figure for her debut to a 95 for the Frizette Stakes win. Her 90 Beyer Speed Figure for the Frizette was a 24-point increase from her debut.
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner over the last 10 years earned between an 86 and a 112 for the win, although Songbird’s 112 in 2015 was 11 points better than the next best winning figure. The average winning Equibase Speed Figure for the Juvenile Fillies from 2014 to 2023 has been 96.7. The winning Beyer Speed Figure for the Juvenile Fillies over the last 10 years has ranged from a 78 to a 99, with an average of 86.4.
Scottish Lassie’s 95 Equibase Speed Figure and 90 Beyer Speed Figure mean if she repeats her Frizette effort Nov. 1 at Del Mar or improves slightly, she is a major win candidate.
Looking Ahead: Scottish Lassie is from the first crop of McKinzie, a multiple Grade 1 winner with tactical speed and the ability to carry it a distance of ground. Looking back on McKinzie’s victories in the Pennsylvania Derby and Whitney Stakes, I see a lot of him in Scottish Lassie.
It’s fair to be skeptical of the quality of the Frizette field after 3-5 morning-line favorite Senza Parole and two others were scratched, but there is no denying Scottish Lassie ran a fast race that in many years would be good enough to win the Juvenile Fillies. The Breeders’ Cup will be her first try navigating two turns in the 1 1/16-mile race, but I expect she’ll handle that test and be a legitimate win contender Nov. 1 at Del Mar.