Welcome to 2025 Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we’ll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail, usually from the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule from which the racehorses earn points toward qualifying. The 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve will be held May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we’ll take a closer look at Citizen Bull, the 1 ½-length winner of the $2 million FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Nov. 1 at Del Mar. The Into Mischief colt earned 30 points toward qualifying for the 2025 Kentucky Derby with that win and currently ranks first on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 40 total qualifying points.

Racing Résumé: Citizen Bull improved to three wins in four starts with a 1 ½-length win in the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, and in victory the Into Mischief colt cemented his credentials as the de facto 2024 champion 2-year-old male.

Citizen Bull also stepped into the top spot on the road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard after banking 10 points for a front-running two-length win in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse Oct.5 at Santa Anita Park and adding 30 for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

The only blemish on his résumé was a third to stablemate Gaming in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity in September, but he defeated Gaming when it mattered most at Del Mar on Nov. 1.

“[Citizen Bull] is special, he showed it [Friday] and he was not tired when he came back,” Citizen Bull’s Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said. “He is a fast horse.” 

In terms of Citizen Bull’s Kentucky Derby hopes, Baffert said: “It’s exciting, but it’s a long way off.”

Speed Figures: Baffert called Citizen Bull a fast horse and the speed-figure makers agree. Equibase gave Citizen Bull a career-top 105 speed figure and Daily Racing Form credited him with a career-best 96 Beyer Speed Figure. The former was a three-point improvement from the 102 Equibase Speed Figure he earned for the American Pharoah; the latter was a seven-point jump from an 89 Beyer for the American Pharoah.

Running Style: Citizen Bull won his debut from just off the pace sprinting in August before he tried to rally from sixth in the Del Mar Futurity and flattened out late. He led from start to finish in his two subsequent races around two turns and appears to be at his best dictating the pace from in front. That might be a difficult task looking forward to 1 ¼ miles on May 3 at Churchill Downs, but it’s a positive that he has won from off the pace and it’s much easier to avoid trouble in prep races when you are all alone in front.

Connections: Bob Baffert won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for a record-setting sixth time. After the race, he said he was pleased to see his horses back on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard after a three-year hiatus. Baffert has been reinstated by Churchill Downs after serving a three-year suspension due to Medina Spirit’s positive test for a banned substance following the 2021 Kentucky Derby.

The Hall of Fame trainer has won 17 Triple Crown races going back to when Silver Charm gave him his first victory in the series by taking the 1997 Kentucky Derby. He has won six editions of the Kentucky Derby and swept the Triple Crown in 2015 with American Pharoah and in 2018 with Justify.

A happy Martin Garcia with Citizen Bull. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Citizen Bull is owned by a large partnership of SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan. Many of the partners were part-owners of Baffert-trained Derby starters Messier and Reincarnate. Starlight Racing and Sol Kumin of Madaket Stables both were part-owners of Justify and 2020 Derby winner Authentic.

Jockey Martin Garcia earned his fifth career Breeders’ Cup win in the Juvenile; his four other winners all came aboard Baffert-trained runners, including the Classic in 2014 on Bayern. His best Kentucky Derby finish was a third aboard Dortmund for Baffert in 2015 and he won the 2010 Preakness on the Baffert-trained Lookin At Lucky.

Pedigree Notes: Citizen Bull is by five-time leading sire Into Mischief, the top North American sire from 2019 through 2023 and the current leader by progeny earnings in 2024 by more than $11 million. From the Storm Cat branch of the Northen Dancer sire line via sire Harlan’s Holiday, Into Mischief is the sire of Kentucky Derby winners Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021).

Citizen Bull was produced by the unraced Distorted Humor mare No Joke, a half-sister (same dam, different sire) to Grade 1 winner Moonshine Memories, and hails from the family of 1997 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and Horse of the Year Favorite Trick as well as 2020 Belmont and Travers Stakes winner Tiz the Law.

Derby Potential: Only two Juvenile winners in the history of the race have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby the following year: Street Sense in 2006-’07 and Nyquist in 2015-’16. When Baffert mentioned the Derby was a long way off, he wasn’t kidding — not just in terms of the six months between races but with regard to the development and maturation of a racehorse.

Citizen Bull has a very good chance to continue to amass qualifying points as a naturally fast, West Coast-based 3-year-old from the Baffert barn with tactical speed. He probably will get a nice break to recover from the Juvenile and with 40 points in the bank, Citizen Bull might need just a couple of quality starts to make the starting gate for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. What type of 3-year-old he will be half a year from now is almost impossible to predict, but he’s talented and accomplished and all eyes will be on Citizen Bull next year after he takes home the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male, which is all-but a given at this point.