Welcome to 2024 Triple Crown Prospect Profiles, where we’ll take a look each week at a recent winner on the U.S. Classics trail, with the focus this week on the 149^th Preakness Stakes May 18 at Pimlico Race Course.

The field for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness is coming into focus. Because Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s horses were ineligible to compete in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve due to a ban stemming from Medina Spirit’s medication violation in 2021, he has two of the leading contenders lined up and ready in Muth and Imagination.

This week, we’ll take a closer look at Muth, a neck winner of the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby on March 30 at Oaklawn Park. The Good Magic colt probably will be the favorite for the middle jewel of the Triple Crown.

Racing Résumé: Muth was purchased for $2 million out of the OBS March sale of 2-year-olds in training by agent Donato Lanni on behalf of Amr Zedan's Zedan Racing Stables. With four wins and two seconds from six starts, the Good Magic colt has lived up to the hype that comes with being a seven-figure auction purchase.

In fact, Muth probably would have been either the second or third betting choice in the Kentucky Derby had he been eligible, behind champion Fierceness and, perhaps, Toyota Blue Grass Stakes winner Sierra Leone. That’s water under the bridge now.

In terms of the Preakness, Muth enters off a two-length win in the Arkansas Derby in which he defeated Mystik Dan, the subsequent Kentucky Derby winner, by 6 ¼ lengths. That win looks even better today, obviously, than it did March 30.

Muth pressed the pace through a half-mile in :47.46 in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby and still had plenty in the tank late as he completed the final furlong in 12.29 seconds – impressive closing speed given how close he was to a solid pace.

Muth has done little wrong in his career, winning twice withs two seconds as a 2-year-old, including a Grade 1 victory in the American Pharoah Stakes. He also was a distant second to Fierceness in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance.

He began his 3-year-old season with a comfortable 2 ¾-length win sprinting seven-eighths of a mile in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes. After the Arkansas Derby win, Muth enters the Preakness making his third start of the year with seven weeks of rest.

Muth should be sitting on a huge race.

Speed Figures: Muth’s speed figures are strong as he’s never recorded a number below 90 in six starts using Equibase Speed Figures or Beyer Speed Figures. His career Beyer Speed figure line is fast and consistent: 90-93-91-95-90-98. The 115 Equibase Speed Figure Muth earned in the Arkansas Derby is tied with stablemate Nysos for the best number earned by a 3-year-old this year in stakes competition.

Running Style: Muth has terrific tactical speed and typically finds an ideal spot within a length or two of the pace. If none of the Preakness contenders is especially keen to set the pace, Muth could lead from start to finish as he did in his debut, but I believe he’s at his best with a target and probably will press the pace under jockey Juan Hernandez.

Hernandez and Muth at Oaklawn. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Connections: Zedan Racing Stables is the racing operation of Los Angeles native and Saudi Arabian businessman and philanthropist Amr bin Fareed bin Mohammed bin Zedan. Zedan Racing was founded in 2016 and earned its first two graded stakes wins with the filly Princess Noor, who won the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante and the Grade 2 Chandelier Stakes in 2020. Zedan Racing has been a major presence in the Thoroughbred racing industry since then and finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby with Medina Spirit, who subsequently was disqualified for a medication violation. In addition to Princess Noor, Medina Spirit, and Muth, Zedan Racing has won Grade 1 races with Taiba, Arabian Knight, and Arabian Lion.

Bob Baffert is a four-time Eclipse Award winner as outstanding trainer who was inducted in 2009 into the Racing Hall of Fame. Baffert swept the Triple Crown in 2015 with American Pharoah and in 2018 with Justify among 17 career wins in U.S. Triple Crown races. His first classic win came with Silver Charm in the 1997 Kentucky Derby and his most recent victory was National Treasure’s win last year in the Preakness, a race Baffert has won a record eight times.

Jockey Juan Hernandez is a native of Veracruz, Mexico, who began riding professionally in his native country. He moved to the U.S. in 2009 and carved out a successful career in Northern California before moving to the more competitive Southern California circuit in 2020, securing his first Grade 1 win that September with Mucho Unusual in the Rodeo Drive Stakes. Hernandez has won 2,622 races, including 92 graded stakes wins and 16 Grade 1s, through May 13 (UPDATE).

Pedigree Notes: Muth is from the second crop of 2017 champion 2-year-old male Good Magic, whose stud career got off to a great start with Mage winning the 2023 Kentucky Derby and Blazing Sevens running second in last year’s Preakness. Muth and 2024 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Dornoch (unplaced in the 2024 Kentucky Derby) are promising runners from Good Magic’s second crop.

Muth was produced by the winning Uncle Mo mare Hoppa, whose lone victory came in a three-quarter-mile sprint. Similarly, grandam (maternal grandmother), Handoverthecat, by Tale of the Cat, won a pair of sprints from five starts.

The bottom half of Muth’s pedigree slants heavily toward speed, but he gets a dose of stamina from his sire and his finishing kick in the Arkansas Derby would seem to indicate he should be able to navigate an extra sixteenth of a mile in the Preakness.

Preakness Potential: Muth very likely will be the favorite for the Preakness Stakes and should be formidable. He’s one of the fastest 3-year-olds in training and well-rested heading into his third start of the year for a trainer who has 17 wins in U.S. Triple Crown races, including a record eight wins in the Preakness. Muth also boasts tactical speed and finished exceptionally well in the Arkansas Derby, with his final three-eighths of a mile in :37.28. He’s a very talented 3-year-old and the most likely winner of the Preakness.