The 2024 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes on Sunday has drawn a six-horse field of fillies and mares headlined by Idiomatic, the defending winner of the race. Last year, Idiomatic became the latest in a long line of females that used this staple of the Keeneland fall meet as a springboard to Breeders’ Cup success when she went on to win the 2023 Longines Distaff in her next start.

Few races from coast to coast have had as strong a historical impact on the Breeders’ Cup World Championships as the Spinster Stakes has had on the Distaff. The race was a key prep race for the likes of Princess Rooney (1984), Sacahuista (1987), Bayakoa (1989, 1990), Inside Information (1995), Blue Prize (2019), and Malathaat, who all completed the Spinster-Distaff sweep in the same year. Life’s Magic, Paseana, Spain, Unbridled Elaine, and Pleasant Home also were all next-out Distaff winners that exited the Spinster at Keeneland in their final pre-Breeders’ Cup race.

The 2024 Spinster Stakes is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” race, and one or more of these contenders should graduate from this spot to figure prominently in next month’s Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar.

1. Idiomatic (3-5 morning line odds): The 2023 Eclipse Award winner as champion older dirt female used a win in this race to propel her to Breeders’ Cup Distaff glory last year and hopes to repeat the feat in 2024 starting with a win in this race. Last year, Idiomatic was a fearsome presence throughout the 2023 season when unbeatable in top-level two-turn stakes races. While Idiomatic has continued to perform at a high level in 2024, she has lost a chunk of her aura of invincibility with losses in two of her last three starts — second in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes Presented by Ford at Saratoga and second in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes last time. Even her victory sandwiched in-between those losses in the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher Stakes at Monmouth Park was a close-call head decision at 1-10 odds over Soul of an Angel, who appeared on paper to be overmatched. So, while it would be impossible for any of today’s five rivals to stack-up against Idiomatic based on credentials and career accomplishments, there have been vulnerabilities in Idiomatic’s form this season that bettors should take into account before backing her to win the Spinster at expected very low odds. Four horses have won back-to-back runnings of the Spinster in the history of the race (Blue Prize, 2018-’19, Take Charge Lady, 2002-’03, Bayakoa, 1989-’90, Bornastar, 1957-’58), and Idiomatic will seek to add her name to that classy list. The champ is the most likely winner of this race, but she shouldn’t be considered unbeatable.

JOCKEY: Florent Geroux; TRAINER: Brad Cox

Candied (BloodHorse/Anne M. Eberhardt)

2. Candied (9-2): Three-year-old filly steps up against older females, and while that might be challenging, the hurdle will not be insurmountable for this trainee from the barn of Todd Pletcher, who has won the Spinster five times in his career, including twice in the last four years with Malathaat in 2022 and Valiance in 2020 when he teamed up with today’s jockey Luis Saez. Candied exits a head-bob loss when caught late in the 1 ¼-mile, Grade 1 Alabama Stakes Presented by Keeneland Sales at Saratoga in a race she very likely would have won if it were run at today’s 1 1/8-mile distance. Her two races before that were a runner-up finish behind leading 3-year-old filly and probable Distaff favorite Thorpedo Anna in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, and a 4 ½-length win over Honor D Lady in the Lady’s Secret Stakes at Monmouth Park, where she earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure in her only prior foray versus older horses so far in her career. Candied is already a Grade 1 winner on this racetrack, having taken the 2023 Darley Alcibiades Stakes almost a year ago to the day.

JOCKEY: Luis Saez; TRAINER: Todd Pletcher

3. Loved (10-1): Owns wins in half of her eight lifetime outings and has often been impressive in those victories. That success, however, has not translated at all into wins at the graded-stakes level for Loved, with the mare failing to hit the board in any of her three career graded stakes tries to date, including a fourth-place finish last time in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Locust Grove Stakes Sept. 14 at Churchill Downs. The feather in her cap in three starts so far this year was a $100,000 stakes win at Horseshoe Indianapolis, and while that victory is nice to see in her past performances, it is a far cry from this type of Grade 1 spot at Keeneland. She adds blinkers today, and her strength seems to lie in her pace versatility, but that may not be enough to translate to a win versus this competition.

JOCKEY: Tyler Gaffalione; TRAINER: Brendan Walsh

4. Honor D Lady (4-1): Exits a 5 ½-length victory in the 1 3/16-mile, Grade 2 Delaware Handicap, and while that race did not feature a standout field, she did display a powerful stretch kick, and it definitely was the type of effort you would like to see from a horse ready to step up into today’s tougher spot. When you combine the Del ’Cap win with Honor D Lady’s victory earlier this year in the Grade 3 Royal Delta Stakes at Gulfstream Park, you have a horse that is in the midst of building a solid 4-year-old resume in 2024. Jockey Jose Ortiz, who was aboard for both the aforementioned stakes wins this year, will instead ride #6 Occult, but the presence of Hall of Famer John Velazquez aboard today certainly lessens the blow. Velazquez won this race twice with Malathaat in 2022 and In Lingerie in 2012. Note that Honor D Lady faced Candied earlier this season in the Lady’s Secret Stakes at Monmouth Park and was beaten by that familiar rival by 4 ½ lengths.

JOCKEY: John Velazquez; TRAINER: Saffie Joseph Jr.

5. Box Draw (30-1): Longshot in the field is a 6-year-old who has accumulated four wins in 23 lifetime races, including a 2-for-9 record in 2024 with a first-level allowance win over the winter at Oaklawn Park and an allowance optional-claiming win via DQ two races ago at Ellis Park. Her speed figures are far below the other horses in this field, and she has failed to hit the board when ambitiously placed in easier stakes spots five prior times in her career.

JOCKEY: Aubrie Green; TRAINER: Henry West Jr.

Occult (Melissa Torres/EQUI-PHOTO)

6. Occult (8-1): Had a promising 3-year-old campaign in 2023 when she won the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks and was third in races like the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes, Grade 1 Acorn Stakes Presented by Great Jones Distilling Co., and Grade 2 Mother Goose Stakes. Occult, however, has failed to take a significant step forward during her 4-year-old season so far with no wins from three outings this year, including a fourth-place finish in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fleur de Lis Stakes. Her main appeal today seems to be her top-notch human connections, trainer Chad Brown and jockey Jose Ortiz, both of whom are seeking their first career wins in this race.

JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz; TRAINER: Chad Brown

THE PICK: Candied

LIVE LONGSHOT: Occult

SUPERFECTA: 2-1-4-6