I first voted for the Eclipse Awards in 2006, and this year will mark the 18^th straight year I’ve voted in the year-end awards for Thoroughbreds in North America. There are no set guidelines or standings that voters must use to vote for Eclipse Award winners, so you’ll see some very surprising votes cast in some divisions and occasionally an extremely controversial award winner.

The great Zenyatta. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The 2009 Horse of the Year debate between eventual winner Rachel Alexandra and 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and Horse of the Year runner-up Zenyatta was the most heated I have seen in my time as a voter (although the following year also stirred up a hornet’s nest). Rachel Alexandra won all eight of her starts, including wins versus 3-year-old males in the 2009 Preakness Stakes and Haskell Invitational Stakes, and against older males in the Woodward Stakes. Zenyatta went 5-for-5 in 2009 and extended her unbeaten record to 14 with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Either of those seasons by Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta would make them a slam-dunk Horse of the Year winner almost any year, but there was only one award and Rachel Alexandra took home the top prize.

This year’s Horse of the Year race is not open and shut, so I’ve put together the pros and cons for each of the six horses who I could see being finalists based on an array of criteria that I’ve learned over the years moves voters.

Most voters have their own set of guidelines using criteria such as graded stakes wins, Grade 1 wins, Grade 1 wins versus open competition (not restricted, for example, to 3-year-olds or females). For some voters Triple Crown and/or Breeders’ Cup victories carry significantly more weight, and for some voters narrative is a key component. It would be foolish to think, for example, that Cody’s Wish’s heartwarming connection to Cody Dorman or Jena Antonucci becoming the first woman to train a Belmont Stakes winner (Arcangelo) would not impact voters. Like I said, there is no set criteria – for some voters the Horse of the Year could be the most captivating story, for some it might be the fastest horse by speed figure, and for others it might be as simple as most Grade 1 wins against open competition.

What I’ve tried to assemble below is not my opinion on who should or will win, but simply the pros and cons for each of the contenders with some history — primarily recent history since the sport has changed so much since the previous century — to guide the way. Who will win Horse of the Year on Jan. 25, 2024, at The Breakers Palm Beach in Florida? There is no Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta in the bunch, but here are the six logical candidates.

Janet Garaguso/NYRA

Arcangelo

Owner: Blue Rose Farm

Trainer: Jena Antonucci

2023 Record: 5 starts: 4 wins - 0 seconds - 0 thirds

2023 Earnings: $1,742,300

Grade 1 Win(s): Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, Travers Stakes

Pros: The Belmont and Travers Stakes are two of U.S. horse racing’s crown jewels; high-profile narrative with trainer Antonucci becoming first woman to train Belmont winner; stellar overall record and four straight wins to close season; dominant against fellow 3-year-olds.

Cons: Did not win against “open company,” in other words a race without restriction, such as limited to 3-year-olds, in Arcangelo’s case, or females; lightest speed figures of this group; historically tough for 3-year-olds to win Horse of the Year without winning either the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve or a major race versus older males.

Chelsea Durand/NYRA

Cody’s Wish

Owner: Godolphin

Trainer: Bill Mott

2023 Record: 5 starts: 4 wins - 0 seconds - 1 third

2023 Earnings: $1,773,900

Grade 1 Win(s): Churchill Downs Stakes Presented by Ford, Hill ‘N’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap, Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Pros: Repeat winner of Dirt Mile paired with a Met Mile victory is a strong one-two punch; three overall Grade 1 wins in 2023 versus open competition tied for tops in this group with Up to the Mark; massive narrative advantage among potential candidates with heartwarming connection to Cody Dorman; strong speed figures; split two matchups with White Abarrio, defeating him in Met Mile.

Cons: Primarily history – Horse of the Year has been dominated by classic-type horses (1 ¼ miles), whether male or female; last miler to win was turf horse Wise Dan in 2012 and 2013; 1994 winner Holy Bull, that year’s Met Mile winner, had five Grade 1 wins at 1 1/8 miles or longer. Lone defeat came when asked to step out of comfort zone in 1 1/8-mile Whitney Stakes, but finished 10 lengths behind White Abarrio.

Eclipse Sportswire

Elite Power

Owner: Juddmonte

Trainer: Bill Mott

2023 Record: 5 starts: 4 wins - 1 second - 0 thirds

2023 Earnings: $2,370,000

Grade 1 Wins: Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap, Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint

Pros: Dominant repeat win in Breeders’ Cup Sprint; also won a lucrative sprint in Saudi Arabia in February; very fast and consistent; track record of extended excellence with nine wins and one second in 10 starts dating to June 2022 bolster profile as dominant within sprint division.

Cons: The last horse to win both champion sprinter and Horse of the Year in the same year was Forego in 1974; Horse of the Year has been dominated by classic-type horses (1 ¼ miles), whether male or female; no Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner has ever been named Horse of the Year; loss to Gunite in Grade 1 Forego Stakes spoiled potential for unbeaten season.

Coady Photography

Idiomatic

Owner: Juddmonte

Trainer: Brad Cox

2023 Record: 9 starts: 8 wins - 1 second - 0 thirds

2023 Earnings: $2,400,280

Grade 1 Wins: Personal Ensign Stakes, Juddmonte Spinster Stakes, Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Pros: Most starts and most wins from among Horse of the Year candidates; three straight Grade 1 wins to close campaign; five graded stakes wins in 2023, also best among Horse of the Year group, including $500,000 Delaware Handicap; dominant against older female division in races around two turns; six of eight wins by open lengths; closed season on five-race winning streak.

Cons: Last Distaff winner to also win Horse of the Year was Azeri in 2002; three most recent female Horse of the Year winners (Rachel Alexandra, 2009; Zenyatta, 2010; Havre de Grace, 2011) all competed in open company against elite older males during Horse of the Year season, which Idiomatic did not; Rachel Alexandra and Havre de Grace won Grade 1s versus males and Zenyatta lost by a head in the Classic after amassing five Grade 1 wins.

Jetta Vaughns/NYRA

Up to the Mark

Owner: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stables

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

2023 Record: 7 starts: 5 wins - 1 second - 1 third

2023 Earnings: $2,427,650

Grade 1 Wins: Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes, Resorts World Casino Manhattan Stakes, Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes

Pros: Switch to grass in 2023 led to breakout season that included three Grade 1 wins, tied for tops among this group of Horse of the Year candidates; like Cody’s Wish, Up to the Mark’s Grade 1 wins came all came against open company at three different tracks; impressive speed figures throughout seven-race season; four of five wins by open lengths.

Cons: All three turf horses to win Horse of the Year this century (Wise Dan, 2012 and 2013; Bricks and Mortar, 2019) capped season with win at Breeders’ Cup; lost by three-quarters of a length to European star Auguste Rodin in Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf; well-beaten in Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes in April in stakes debut.

BENOIT photo

White Abarrio

Owner: C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable

Trainer: Rick Dutrow Jr.

2023 Record: 5 starts: 3 wins - 0 seconds - 1 third

2023 Earnings: $3,883,800

Grade 1 Wins: Whitney Stakes, Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic

Pros: Closed season with two of the best races of the year in U.S. dirt racing in winning Grade 1 Whitney by 6 ¼ lengths and Breeders’ Cup Classic by a length; speed figures rate White Abarrio as extremely fast; BC Classic winners have won four of last six Horse of the Year awards and nine of last 19; split two matchups with Cody’s Wish, defeating him by by 10 lengths in Grade 1 Whitney.

Cons: Two stakes wins in 2023 are fewest among this group of Horse of the Year contenders; both Cody’s Wish and Up to the Mark have more Grade 1 wins against open company; beaten by 3 ¾ lengths by Cody’s Wish in Met Mile; lost seasonal debut in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by Baccarat by 13 ½ lengths; could be hurt narratively by trainer Rick Dutrow Jr., who returned in 2023 after having his trainer’s license revoked for 10 years due to a string of medication violations.