This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2023 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they were a few weeks ago.

In the eighth edition of this blog for the 2023 run for the roses, the focus was the previous two weeks of racing that featured five Kentucky Derby qualifying races.

Look for this column to appear every other week going forward to analyze to biggest movers approaching the first leg of the Triple Crown. For now, let’s take a look at what has changed over the last couple of weeks on the 2023 Triple Crown trail.

Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

THREE HEATING UP

Eclipse Sportswire

1. Angel of Empire

In my opinion, none of the legitimate Kentucky Derby win contenders improved his stock in his final prep race as much as Angel of Empire did in winning the $1.25 million Arkansas Derby. The bay colt by Classic Empire closed like a thundering freight train with a final three-eighths of a mile in approximately :36.74 and final eighth of a mile in :12.12, both exceptional finishing times for a 1 1/8-mile dirt race. He’s shown steady progression in his three races this year in terms of speed figures. He recorded Equibase Speed Figures of 92-96-106 for the Smarty Jones Stakes (runner-up) and wins in the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque Crescent City Ford and Arkansas Derby, respectively, while improving from an 85 to an 89 to a 94 Beyer Speed Figure over the same span of starts. I wrote after the Risen Star: “He will need to continue to improve in his final Derby prep but he can definitely build upon those incremental gains for 2020 and 2021 Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox.” He did just that in the Arkansas Derby with his best race to date. With back-to-back wins at 1 1/8 miles and five weeks of rest leading into the Derby, Angel of Empire looks like he’ll be sitting on a big race. I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t run well on May 6 and I think he’ll be one of a handful of 3-year-olds in the mix to win the race in the final eighth of a mile at Churchill Downs. Cox won the 2021 Kentucky Derby with Mandaloun following the disqualification of Medina Spirit and the Belmont Stakes the same year with Essential Quality, so he knows how to prepare an elite 3-year-old to peak at the opportune time.

Eclipse Sportswire

2. Verifying

The $998,125 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes was a “prove it” race for Verifying after his fourth-place finish, beaten by 5 ¼ lengths, in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes Feb. 25 on a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park. The bay colt by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify entered the race with only 14 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard, so he needed a big race simply to qualify for the first jewel of the Triple Crown, but more importantly Verifying needed to prove he could compete at the top of the division. He had not really done that since his second-place finish last October in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes. While Verifying impressed in a 5 ¼-length allowance win in his 3-year-old debut in January, he was unplaced in two graded stakes races since the Champagne so the jury was still out on him. Verifying seized command in the stretch of the Blue Grass after pressing the pace through three-quarters of a mile in 1:12.57. He battled gamely when challenged by favored Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby winner Tapit Trice but could not hold on to the lead despite digging in late and he finished second by a neck. Verifying came up just short in his first try at 1 1/8 miles, but he really showed some tenacity late and earned enough points to guarantee a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. He was 5 ¾ lengths clear of third-place finisher Blazing Sevens and only a neck behind a colt many expect to be one of the top three betting choices May 6 at Churchill Downs. Verifying equaled a career-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure and posted a new top 99 Beyer Speed Figure.

Joe Labozzetta/NYRA

3. Lord Miles

It’s impossible to argue against the fact that Lord Miles has made a massive jump from on the very fringes of the conversation about the 2023 Kentucky Derby to have a spot locked up in the starting gate on May 6. The reason I could not place him higher here is simply because I can’t envision a scenario in which he winds up wearing a blanket of roses in the winner’s circle for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. and owner-breeder Vegso Racing Stable. Stranger things have happened – a year ago Rich Strike won the Derby at 80.80-1 after drawing in off the also-eligible list – and you have to be in the race to win it. On the positive side, he showed plenty of fight late in winning a physical stretch battle in the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino, I do believe this Curlin colt has the puff and pedigree to run well at 1 ¼ miles, and if you like him as a live longshot the price should be right. He also showed a bit more tactical speed in the Wood and it seems like jockey Paco Lopez had a much better feel for Lord Miles in his second start riding him. I’m just worried that he needs another significant bump on the speed-figure scale from career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure, an 11-point jump, and 93 Beyer Speed Figure, a 14-point new career best, simply to be a factor and he’ll have to do that on four weeks rest.

Forte (Eclipse Sportswire)

Also-Eligible: Of course, I considered Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa winner Forte, last year’s champion 2-year-old male; Runhappy Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move; and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes victor Tapit Trice for heating up slots this week. Ultimately, I decided that since all three already were in my top five, they hadn’t really ascended as much as solidified their Kentucky Derby credentials. The most difficult to leave out of the three was definitely Tapit Trice, who made up quite a bit of ground with a strong middle move and still finished with a final eighth of a mile in :12.40 to earn a career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure and 99 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s on a very short list to be my 2023 Kentucky Derby pick. … Both Santa Anita Derby runner-up Mandarin Hero and third-place finisher Skinner ran huge in defeat. Japanese invader Mandarin Hero lost by a nose to Practical Move in his first start in the U.S., while Skinner was another half-length back. Both would be viable Kentucky Derby candidates, but Skinner (45 qualifying points) will need at least one defection to get into the 20-horse Derby field and Mandarin Hero (40 points) needs several defections pending the outcome of this weekend’s Stonestreet Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. … Finally, Mage ran very well in finishing second to champion Forte in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms April 1. He looked like a winner in deep stretch before giving way late as Forte surged to his fifth straight win. With only three career starts, Mage could take another step forward on Kentucky Derby day but it would be tough to envision his first stakes win coming in the run for the roses.

THREE COOLING DOWN

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1. Red Route One

I’ve had Red Route One identified as a deep closer that I could potentially use to round out my Kentucky Derby trifecta and superfecta tickets since all the way back when he closed for fourth, beaten by 1 ½ lengths, as a 2-year-old in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He then ran second in both the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes and Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, the latter beaten by just a length by Confidence Game, in his first two starts of his 3-year-old campaign. His odds in those races ranged from 9-1 to 15.50-1, so my visions of a deep closer at an appealing price looked to be coming to fruition. The chestnut Gun Runner colt came up short, however, in his final Kentucky Derby prep race as he did not show his usual late punch and finished sixth in the Arkansas Derby, 5 ½ lengths behind Angel of Empire and on the outside looking in as far as Kentucky Derby qualifying points with 33. He ranks 28^th with one final prep race to go – the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes April 15 – so as it stands, he would need at least eight defections to be among the 20 starters on May 6 at Churchill. I still very much like Red Route One, but it’s not looking good for his chances to compete right now.

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2. National Treasure

He’s a talented colt that I’m not sure really loves to win. National Treasure has demonstrated a level of ability that allows him to compete with the best of his generation and hold his own, but he’s winless in four stakes races since his debut victory last September at Del Mar and just seems content to compete and pick up a minor share in big races. He ran second by 5 ¾ lengths in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes, third in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance in his final start at 2, and third by a length in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes in his 2023 debut. The $750,000 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby was his last shot to qualify for the Kentucky Derby and he finished fourth, 2 ¾ lengths behind winner Practical Move. National Treasure does not have the necessary points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, and in the Santa Anita Derby it looked like he might need a confidence builder to regain his winning form.  

Classic Car Wash (Eclipse Sportswire)

3. Classic Car Wash

The Noble Bird gelding strung together a pair of wins in his final start at 2 and first start of 2023 before testing the waters on the Kentucky Derby trail. He held his own in finishing third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and then second by two lengths to highly regarded Tapit Trice in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. That left Classic Car Wash with his work cut out for him in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes as it looked like he would need at least a fourth-place finish – it turned out he needed a third-place finish – to accrue enough qualifying points to rank in the top 20 for the Kentucky Derby. An eighth-place finish, beaten by 16 ½ lengths, left Classic Car Wash out of the mix for the Kentucky Derby, and the 78 Equibase Speed Figure was the lowest Classic Car Wash has received since his maiden win Dec. 2, 2022, at Gulfstream Park.

Of note: Raise Cain has a spot locked up in the field for the Kentucky Derby thanks to a win in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes, but it’s difficult to be too optimistic about his chances in the classic race after a fifth-place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. The Gotham was a nice performance visually, dominating by 7 ½ lengths on a muddy track, but it did not come back as an especially fast race. The 93 Equibase Speed Figure he earned in the Blue Grass was the best of his career but it’s just not fast enough in my opinion to be a serious threat in the Kentucky Derby.