The $400,000, Grade 3 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs drew a field of seven vying for qualifying points to the May 3 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. The group is led by Champagne Stakes winner Chancer McPatrick, who is making his first start in more than four months since finishing sixth of 10 in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA.
Chancer McPatrick is one of two entrants trained by Chad Brown, with the other, Hill Road, also having run in the Juvenile where he caught some eyes by rallying from 10th to finish third at odds of 61.10-1. Patch Adams makes his second start as a 3-year-old around two turns, following a fourth of nine finish in the Southwest Stakes on Jan. 25. Owen Almighty made his first start in a two-turn race last out, finishing second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Naughty Rascal finished sixth in the Sam F. Davis after earning a win (via a disqualification of Owen Almighty) in the shorter Pasco Stakes in January. Brodeur won an allowance race at the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Tampa Bay Derby in January and hopes to run well at this higher class level. Filoso won at a mile last August in his second career start but has finished third and sixth since then, most recently in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at the end of November.
Top Win Contenders:
Patch Adams showed a lot of talent last November in the second start of his career, dominating in a field of 12 with a 10 ½-length win at Churchill Downs and a very high 113 Equibase Speed Figure for a 2-year-old. He was sent to the post as the 4-5 betting favorite in the Southwest Stakes nearly two months later on Jan. 25, but Patch Adams bobbled early and ended up positioned seventh of nine rather than closer to the pace as he did in his Churchill victory. After moving up to fourth after three-quarters of a mile and to second with an eighth of a mile to run, the colt could not sustain his rally and ended up fourth. Still, it must be noted Patch Adams made up ground on the winner during the last three-quarters of a mile, improving from 7 ½ lengths back, to 3 ½ in the stretch, to 2 ½ at the finish. His Equibase pace figures illustrate that rally, as he earned a 92 second-call figure and a 97 final figure. He’ll be reunited with jockey Florent Geroux in the Tampa Bay Derby as Geroux was aboard for Patch Adams’ dominant November win but not for the Southwest. Patch Adams is by one of the best sires of 3-year-old stakes winners in this field, Into Mischief, and he’s trained by Brad Cox, who has won at a 27% clip in graded stakes dirt routes over the past 24 months, well above the average.
Hill Road is trained by Chad Brown, who also trains Chancer McPatrick, and there is no doubt in my mind he will carry higher odds than his stablemate when the field breaks from the gate. A Kentucky-bred son of Quality Road out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare who is bred to run this distance and more with aplomb, Hill Road ran the first two races of his career on turf and in Ireland, winning the first of them at a mile then finishing seventh in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes. He was then tried on dirt for the first time after coming to the U.S., and Hill Road surprised many handicappers when rallying from 10th to third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November. He earned earning a 98 Equibase Speed Figure in that race, one point higher than the 97 figure Patch Adams earned in the Southwest Stakes. He’s likely to improve as a more mature 3-year-old and coming off the experience of a race on dirt, and Hill Road also gets the services of jockey Tyler Gaffalione. It must be noted Brown teamed up with Gaffalione to win the 2024 Tampa Bay Derby with Domestic Product, and on last year’s “Road to the Derby” trail Brown and Gaffalione teamed up for wins by Sierra Leone in the Risen Star Stakes and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes before losing in the Kentucky Derby by a nose.
Owen Almighty has done nothing wrong in five races, finishing first in three and second in the other two. Unfortunately, he was disqualified from first to fifth in one of those. The first four were all one-turn races, and Owen Almighty ran as well in his two-turn debut last month in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs as he had in his sprints. In that race, Owen Almighty battled head and head for most of the race before yielding to eventual winner John Hancock by a half-length at the finish. The 96 figure he earned is on par with the figures of the top two contenders, and breaking from the rail Saturday it is possible jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. may be able to put the colt on the lead and play “come catch me,” perhaps successfully.
I’ll mention Chancer McPatrick because if I don’t many will wonder why. He won the first two starts of his career, both sprints, with visually impressive rallies, coming from last of 10 in his debut and then and eighth of nine in his second race. When stretched out to a mile, Chancer McPatrick won the Champagne Stakes last October with a 94 Equibase Speed Figure. However, the Champagne was a one-turn race, and when racing around two turns for the first time next out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Chancer McPatrick couldn’t mount the same kind of rally, moving up from ninth to sixth at the end. Compare that to Hill Road, who outfinished Chancer McPatrick with his rally from 10th to third. Considering he has been off for more than three months and his next (and final) race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is more important than this one in terms of preparation, I believe Chancer McPatrick has less of a probability to win than the three aforementioned contenders in this race.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in a dirt route race, are Brodeur (89), Filoso (82) and Naughty Rascal (80).
Win Contenders, in preference order:
Patch Adams
Hill Road
Owen Almighty
Pick 4
11-3/8-9/12-1
11-3/8-9/12-1
$66
Pick 5
2/6/7-11-3/8-9/12-1
2/6/7-11-3/8-9/12-1
$210
Pick 6 Jackpot
12-2/6/7-11-3/8-9/12-1
12-2/6/7-11-3/8-9/12-1
$395
Superfecta
1-2-3-7
1-2-3-7
$6
X-5 Super High Five
1-2-3-7-4
1-2-3-7-4
$303
Pick 4
11-3/8-9/12-1
11-3/8-9/12-1
$66
Pick 5
2/6/7-11-3/8-9/12-1
2/6/7-11-3/8-9/12-1
$210
Pick 6 Jackpot
12-2/6/7-11-3/8-9/12-1
12-2/6/7-11-3/8-9/12-1
$395
Superfecta
1-2-3-7
1-2-3-7
$6
X-5 Super High Five
1-2-3-7-4
1-2-3-7-4
$303
