The Grade 2, $500,000 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes Saturday at Fair Grounds features a field of 13 vying for important Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifying points as well as a $300,000 first prize.
Two of the horses most likely to be favored by bettors are making their 2025 debuts, those being Jonathan’s Way and East Avenue. Jonathan’s Way won the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes in September 2024 before an unthreatening effort in the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA and a second-place finish in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. NOTE: Jonathan's Way Way scratched Thursday due to unsatisfactory results from pre-race bloodwork. East Avenue finished ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after stumbling badly at the start but won the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity easily prior to that. Four horses entered in the Risen Star last raced in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on this track four weeks ago, most notably runner-up Built, who was beaten by a neck. Magnitude was sixth in the Lecomte following a second-place effort in the Gun Runner Stakes in December when beaten by 6 ¾ lengths, that race won by Built, with Render Judgment third and another 2 ¾ lengths in arrears. Seattle Road (seventh) and Jolly Samurai (ninth) also hope to improve off their efforts in the Lecomte. Chunk of Gold finished fast for second in the Leonatus Stakes last month in only the second start of his career and can improve, while Septarian hopes to do the same off a third-place finish in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on Jan. 4. Then there’s American Promise, who broke last of nine in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes three weeks ago before rushing up to second then tiring. Vassimo brings a perfect 2-for-2 record into the race, including a 2 ¾-length win four weeks ago in his first start around two turns. Giocoso returns from three months away from the races, having won a two-turn race on grass before the rest and with a third-place finish behind Jonathan’s Way in the Iroquois prior to that. Vamos Carlitos won a claiming race two starts back and then was second in an allowance race on this track four weeks ago and rounds out the field.
Top win contenders:
Having led from start to finish from the rail in earning his first victory in late December, I am 100% certain the plan was to send American Promise to the front from post-position seven at the start in the Southwest Stakes on Jan. 25 and play “come catch me” from that point onward. However, to quote from Robert Burns, “The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.” Such was the case when American Promise stood in the gate when it opened for less than a second, but that was more than enough time for him to lose any chance of using the strategy of leading from the start. Instead, the colt moved up quickly to be fifth after a quarter-mile then second after a half-mile, before tiring significantly from the mis-expenditure of energy. For the Risen Star, American Promise drew the rail, the same as in his victory in December when he earned a very strong 102 Equibase Speed Figure, higher than the 100 figure probable favorite Jonathan’s Way earned in winning the Iroquois Stakes last September and higher than the 99 figure East Avenue earned winning the Breeders’ Futurity last October. Making the case that his effort in the Southwest can be ignored due to the bad start, and that the effort and field high 102 speed figure one race before that may be repeated, this suggests American Promise is a strong contender. Additionally, American Promise is out of the Tapit mare Tapella, who produced multiple stakes winner Hoosier Philly, who has earned more than $950,000 to date. The jockey change to Keith Asmussen doesn’t hurt either, as he and Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas teamed up to win the Bugler Stakes at Oaklawn Park a few weeks back and last year they won the Honeybee Stakes (a Road to the Kentucky Oaks race) with Lemon Muffin at odds of 28.10-1.
Built may have a slight edge over Jonathan’s Way and over East Avenue, as he ran four weeks ago as compared with 11 weeks ago for Jonathan’s Way and 15 weeks ago for East Avenue. Built had returned from 11 weeks off on Dec. 21 to win the Gun Runner Stakes, earning a career-best 95 Equibase Speed Figure, then four weeks later in the Lecomte, Built rallied strongly from sixth to miss by a neck at the finish line, although his speed figure regressed to 84. For the Risen Star, Built gets a jockey change to Luis Saez, and in the event American Promise can’t lead from start to finish, Built appears to have what it takes to go past in the stretch for the win.
Aside from trying to win a two-turn race following 11 weeks off, Jonathan’s Way may still be a strong contender. He won in his debut last August at six furlongs rather easily with an 89 figure, then improved to a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure when victorious in the Iroquois Stakes four weeks later. Following a poor effort when seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile — though well backed at 5.80-1 odds — Jonathan’s Way closed out his freshman campaign nicely when rallying for second behind easy winner First Resort in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes to earn an 88 speed figure. Trainer Phil Bauer has really gotten the colt into top shape recently, with two excellent workouts at Fair Grounds in preparation for this race. The first of the two was the best of 40 at the distance of five furlongs and the more recent was third best of 126 on the day at a half-mile. Those suggest this talented colt will put forth a top effort in this race, but considering the time off it still may not be good enough to beat the top two contenders. NOTE: Jonathan's Way Way scratched Thursday due to unsatisfactory results from pre-race bloodwork.
Similar to Jonathan’s Way, East Avenue won in his debut, also a sprint, with a 91 speed figure, before improving to a 99-figure effort winning the Breeders’ Futurity in October. The 9-5 favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, East Avenue stumbled at the start and lost all chance to fulfil the probable plan of leading early in the race, never making any headway thereafter. Freshened since then, it appears very likely that this is a prep race for the Louisiana Derby next month, although certainly the connections want him to run well. Given that East Avenue draws the post-position four and American Promise gets the rail, it is unlikely the instructions given jockey Tyler Gaffalione will be to engage with American Promise in the early stages, but East Avenue may take up a stalking position and be a factor to the finish in this race.
The rest of the field (with best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Chunk of Gold (91), Giocoso (98), Jolly Samurai (83), Magnitude (89), Render Judgment (86), Seattle Road (82), Septarian (86), Vamos Carlitos (86) and Vassimo (83).
Win Contenders, in preference order:
American Promise
Built
East Avenue
Pick 4
4-8-1/2/3/6-13
4-8-1/2/3/6-13
$367
Pick 5
3/5/9/12/15-4-8-1/2/3/6-13
3/5/9/12/15-4-8-1/2/3/6-13
$1,481
Pick 6
5-3/5/9/12/15-4-8-1/2/3/6-13
5-3/5/9/12/15-4-8-1/2/3/6-13
$177
Pick 6
5-3/5/9/12/15-4-8-1/2/3/6-13
5-3/5/9/12/15-4-8-1/2/3/6-13
$24,643
Daily Double
2-13
2-13
$35
Superfecta
13-5-9-3
13-5-9-3
$5,399
Trifecta
13-5-9
13-5-9
$3,425
Pick 4
4-8-1/2/3/6-13
4-8-1/2/3/6-13
$367
Pick 5
3/5/9/12/15-4-8-1/2/3/6-13
3/5/9/12/15-4-8-1/2/3/6-13
$1,481
Pick 6
5-3/5/9/12/15-4-8-1/2/3/6-13
5-3/5/9/12/15-4-8-1/2/3/6-13
$177
Pick 6
5-3/5/9/12/15-4-8-1/2/3/6-13
5-3/5/9/12/15-4-8-1/2/3/6-13
$24,643
Daily Double
2-13
2-13
$35
Superfecta
13-5-9-3
13-5-9-3
$5,399
Trifecta
13-5-9
13-5-9
$3,425
