The Grade 2, $300,000 Red Smith Stakes at Aqueduct drew a field of nine, including two millionaires and two horses which would break through the million-dollar career earnings threshold should they win. However, the two millionaires, Adhamo and City Man, have a combined 2024 record of 0-for-8.
City Man earned his last win in August 2023 in the West Point Stakes for New York-breds only and was recently second in the Mohawk Stakes, also restricted to New York-breds. Adhamo has lost nine straight races since capturing the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes in 2022, and he finished 10th in the 2024 United Nations Stakes in his most recent race. The two on the threshold of millionaire status, Integration and Master Piece, have much better recent form. Integration has earned $976,800 in his career and two races back finished second in the Grade 1 Arlington Million. On the other hand, Integration has never run this 1 3/8 miles distance, with his longest race the Arlington Million at the distance of 1 ¼ miles. Master Piece has earned $943,577 to date and won the 2023 Red Smith Stakes. He enters this year’s race off a third-place effort, beaten a head for second, in the Grade 2 California Crown John Henry Turf Championship Stakes presented by 1/ST Bet. Both Curbstone and Limited Liability are cutting back in distance from much longer races and might be contenders. Curbstone finished second in the two-mile John Forbes Stakes last month, while Limited Liability won the Blackwood Distilling Nashville Gold Cup Stakes at the distance of 2 1/16 miles. Then there’s Rebel Red, the most lightly raced horse in the field at seven starts. He has won three of five races since resuming his career in the United States this year after 18 months off, and he enters the Red Smith off a career-best effort last month. Pioneering Spirit won the 2023 Bernard Baruch and 2023 Knickerbocker Stakes but has been winless in 11 races since then. Similarly, Daunt did not win a race this year or last year among 13 starts, including a seventh-place finish in last year’s Red Smith.
Main contenders:
Since four horses among the nine entered are winless in 2024, the horse to take a closer look at first when considering those who have potential to win is Rebel Red, who is one of only two to have won his most recent race. The other is Limited Liability, whose best two efforts this year have come at distances of two miles or more. Rebel Red has never run this far but let there be no doubt he can run this 1 3/8 miles distance successfully. His sire, Frankel, is one of the best horses of this century who was undefeated in 14 races, and Frankel is one of the best sires in the world since entering stud duty in 2013. Only a few of Frankel’s progeny have raced in North America, but a Race Lens query reveals that among 33 graded stakes starters on grass in the last five years, 14 have won or placed, including Soldier Rising, who was beaten a neck when second in the 2023 Red Smith. Rebel Red will be ridden by Jose Ortiz and is trained by Cherie DeVaux and these two teamed up just one week ago to win the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile presented by PDJF with More Than Looks. Stretching out from 1 1/8 miles to 1 3/8 miles off a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure, this 4-year-old can take another big step forward and earn his first graded stakes win.
Master Piece finished 10th in the 2023 Arlington Million prior to the Red Smith, so he was a bit disregarded by the betting public in last year’s Red Smith. Running on the Aqueduct turf for the first time in this race last year, Master Piece put in a visually impressive rally to go from fifth and six lengths back on the turn, to fourth and two lengths back with an eighth of a mile to go, to win by a neck. That effort earned a strong 111 figure, which he bettered to 119 three races later in the Fort Marcy Stakes in May of this year, also on this turf course. After fourth- and fifth-place efforts, Master Piece showed signs of improving form when beaten a head for second in the California Crown John Henry Turf Championship near the end of September. Now back on the Aqueduct turf where he is perfect in two races, as well as reunited with jockey Jose Lezcano who rode him to victory in last year’s Red Smith, Master Piece would be no surprise if victorious two years in a row.
Pioneering Spirit is interesting for a couple of reasons even though he is winless in 10 races this year. First, he is trained by Richard Dutrow, who saddled Master Piece to victory in this race last year and is hoping to win again in 2024. Second, for some time and until last month, Pioneering Spirit had been in the care of Linda Rice, who claimed him for $40,000 in March of last year. Under Rice’s care, Pioneering Spirit won four straight races on grass from May through July of last year, including one at this mile and three-eighths distance. Pioneering Spirit also won the Bernard Baruch Stakes (on grass) and Knickerbocker Stakes (scheduled for turf but run on dirt) last summer and fall. Having only finished better than third one time in 10 races since then, Rice entered Pioneering Spirit into an allowance/optional-claiming race last month, from which Dutrow claimed the horse and now can turn that $62,500 investment into almost 300% in profit with the $180,000 winner’s share of this purse. Manny Franco gets on and it is hard to ignore their record together (per Race Lens) of 8-for-31 (26%) in the past two years. Pioneering Spirit earned a 110 figure when beaten a neck last month in his most recent race and considering that is nearly identical to the 111 figure Master Piece earned winning this race last year, Pioneering Spirit absolutely has to be considered a contender.
The rest of the field (with their best Equibase Speed Figure): Adhamo (112), City Man (111), Curbstone (108), Daunt (103), Integration (116) and Limited Liability (116).
Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Rebel Red
Master Piece
Pioneering Spirit
Daily Double
11-2
11-2
$44
Superfecta
2-5-9-3
2-5-9-3
$12
Grand Slam
2/5/11-7/8/9-4/6/11-2
2/5/11-7/8/9-4/6/11-2
$102
Daily Double
11-2
11-2
$44
Superfecta
2-5-9-3
2-5-9-3
$12
Grand Slam
2/5/11-7/8/9-4/6/11-2
2/5/11-7/8/9-4/6/11-2
$102
