The $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes Saturday at Oaklawn Park is the first of four Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve races to be run at the Hot Springs, Ark., track, and the 1 1/16-mile event will start to tell us which talented 3-year-olds are worthy of participating in subsequent races. The next prep race in the series will be the Southwest Stakes on Jan. 25, followed by the Rebel Stakes on Feb. 22 and finally the Arkansas Derby on March 29.

Among the eight horses entered in this year’s Smarty Jones, two have already won stakes races. Coal Battle won the Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park on Dec. 13 and Kale’s Angel won the Advent Stakes at Oaklawn on Dec. 6. Among the rest, Curvino, Hot Property and Optical enter the race off wins in route races (a mile or more) and could be competitive at this level. Mo Quality exits a winning effort in a sprint but could also continue his pattern of improvement as he finished second in his debut before the recent victory. Bon Temps stretches out to two turns for the first time but has not won a race yet and has not been competitive in either of his two starts to date. Hot Gunner won in his debut last July but has finished no better than third in five races since then.

Top contenders:

Kale’s Angel appears to be the horse to catch, and to beat, in this year’s Smarty Jones Stakes by virtue of having drawn the rail post position and having shown excellent tactical speed in his most recent race. After he shipped in from trainer Peter Miller’s base in California to contest the Advent Stakes four weeks ago, Kale’s Angel drew the outside post position among six horses running the much shorter distance of 5 ½ furlongs. From that post, jockey Ramon Vasquez, who was riding Kale’s Angel for the first time and who rides again in this race, took up a stalking trip in second position for the opening half-mile before giving the colt his cue. Kale’s Angel responded and opened up by 2 ½ lengths with an eighth of a mile to run. He extended his margin with powerful strides and passed the finish line 5 ¾ lengths in front of the next horse. In addition, the second-place finisher in the Advent, Innovator, flattered Kale’s Angel by winning his next race. The Equibase Speed Figure earned by Kale’s Angel was 109, extremely strong for a 2-year-old even in the latter part of the year. That figure was also higher than any of the last four winners of the Smarty Jones. In case there are any doubts about this horse stretching out from a sprint to a route and winning back-to-back in stakes races, a Race Lens query reveals trainer Miller pulled off this same feat in the fall of 2022 with the juvenile filly And Tell Me Nolies, who won the Del Mar Debutante followed by the Chandelier Stakes. As such, Kale’s Angel could be a standout in this field.

Kale's Angel (Coady Media)

Coal Battle has won two stakes races in a row, the most recent being the Springboard Mile on Dec. 13, which was held around two turns. Prior to that he won the Jean Laffite Stakes at the distance of 6 ½ furlongs. However, because of the configuration of the track at Delta Downs, the Jean Lafitte was also contested around two turns. He improved from an 87 figure in the Jean Lafitte to a 96 figure in the Springboard Mile, and based on that, we can project an improvement to about 105 for this race, within range of the 109 figure Kale’s Angel earned in the Advent Stakes. Coal Battle began positioned eighth of 12 runners in the Springboard Mile and rallied strongly to win under jockey Juan Vargas, who has been in the saddle for all three of this colt’s victories. Considering how well he has run in his last two races, Coal Battle should be a strong contender in this field, particularly if the early pace is faster than average.

Trainer Brad Cox, who saddles Hot Property, has won the Smarty Jones Stakes three times in the past four years. Last year he managed Smarty Jones winner Catching Freedom, who had finished fourth in his previous start. In 2021 Cox saddled Caddo River to victory off a strong win at a mile, and that pattern is similar to Hot Property’s, who won his only start on Nov. 24 at this mile and one-sixteenth distance. Hot Property’s Equibase Speed Figure was 85, so the colt would need to improve quite a bit to get to the 100+ level that’s usually required to win the Smarty Jones. However, it is likely Hot Property is much more mature than he was in November. Additionally, his half-sister is Actress, who earned nearly $600,000 including wins in the 2017 Comely Stakes and Black Eyed Susan Stakes, so we cannot rule out the possibility of Hot Property making the necessary improvement necessary to win this year’s Smarty Jones Stakes.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Bon Temps (75), Curvino (85), Hot Gunner (73), Optical (92) and Mo Quality (89).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:

Kale’s Angel

Coal Battle

Hot Property