Can history help us identify the most likely winner of Saturday’s $500,000, Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds? You bet it can.

The 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifier has drawn a competitive 13-horse field. But after reviewing the past 15 editions of the Risen Star, we’ve identified half a dozen historical trends that can be used to identify the key contenders in the 2025 renewal.

Horses with tactical speed perform well

While no single running style boasts a strong advantage in the Risen Star, it should be noted that horses positioned in the front half of the field after the opening half-mile have won 10 of the last 15 editions of the race. That includes eight winners who were positioned first, second, or third after half a mile.

Longshot winners and runners-up aren’t uncommon

Favorites win the Risen Star on occasion, but their 4-for-15 (27%) record since 2011 isn’t remarkable. Longshots often outrun expectations in this race, with the last 15 editions producing wins from Ive Struck a Nerve (135.20-1), Bravazo (21-1), Angel of Empire (13.70-1), and Modernist (12.80-1) plus runner-up finishes from Snapper Sinclair (41.70-1), Forevamo (40.60-1), Sun Thunder (16.60-1), and Albano (13.60-1).

The Lecomte Stakes is a key prep

Six of the last 15 editions of the Risen Star (40%) have been won by horses exiting the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. Those six horses are Epicenter (2022), Mandaloun (2021), Mr. Monomoy (2020), War of Will (2019), International Star (2015), and Ive Struck a Nerve (2013).

Stakes-experienced runners have an advantage

It’s uncommon for horses without experience competing at the stakes level to win the Risen Star. No fewer than 14 of the last 15 winners had previously contested at least one stakes race. The only exception was Modernist, a maiden winner who won the slower of two Risen Star divisions in 2020.

Favor horses who ran in January or February

Did you know 13 of the last 15 Risen Star winners prepped with a race in either January or February? During this timeframe, only Gun Runner (2016) and Sierra Leone (2024) managed to win the Risen Star in their first run of the season, and those two were superb talents who went on to become Eclipse Award winners.

Cox and Geroux. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Support trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux

Trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux have enjoyed strong success in recent runnings of the Risen Star.

Cox has won the race three times with Mr. Monomoy (2020), Mandaloun (2021), and Angel of Empire (2023). Geroux has likewise secured three wins, guiding Mr. Monomoy and Mandaloun as well as Gun Runner (2016).

Conclusions

Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity winner #4 East Avenue and Iroquois Stakes conqueror #2 Jonathan’s Way are the expected Risen Star favorites. But neither one has raced this year, so history suggests they’re at a disadvantage.

The best fit for the historical profile of a Risen Star winner is #9 Built, runner-up by a neck in the Jan. 18 Lecomte Stakes. Tactical speed is a strong suit for Built; two starts back he won the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds by 6 ¾ lengths after leading from start to finish. His stakes experience and strong recent race suggest he’ll be formidable in the Risen Star.

Meanwhile, #1 American Promise looms as a live longshot. Two starts back, he won a fast maiden special weight on the lead at Oaklawn Park. Last time out, he finished sixth in the Jan. 25 Grade 3 Southwest Stakes after breaking slowly and advancing into a hot pace. With his tactical speed, stakes experience, recent race, and long odds, American Promise has a lot to offer from a historical perspective.

Enjoy the race!