The Grade 2, $415,000 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes Saturday at Gulfstream Park drew eight 3-year-olds vying for qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on a 50-25-15-10-5 basis to the top five finishers.
Seven of the eight entrants won their most recent races, four of those seven earned their win in a stakes race, and two of those four stakes winners were victorious at the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Fountain of Youth. Those two horses are Burnham Square and Sovereignty. Burnham Square won the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes four weeks ago at Gulfstream Park. Sovereignty won the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes in the fall. Gate to Wire won the Swale Stakes at the shorter distance of seven furlongs one month ago. Keep It Easy won the Ed Brown Stakes at the distance of 6 ½ furlongs in November. River Thames is undefeated in two races, the most recent on the same day as the Holy Bull and Swale Stakes at the distance of one mile, around one turn. Solid Left won a maiden race at the distance of the Fountain of Youth and in his second career start near the end of January. Neoequos won at Gulfstream at six furlongs in January. McKellen enters the race off a sixth of seven finish in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream last month.
Analysis and main win contenders:
I’m going to start by listing the reasons many of the entrants in this race, although very talented to date, don’t have the same probability of winning that the two main win contenders — Sovereignty and Burnham Square, possess. River Thames is the horse I think will be the lowest odds of the group, based on his two wins by a total of more than 11 lengths and the fact that he’s trained by Todd Pletcher. The first of the two wins, at six furlongs, earned the colt a very strong 105 Equibase Speed Figure. However, when stretched to one mile — although winning by 6 ½ lengths — River Thames did not run as fast, only earning an 84 speed figure. It might be said he was so far in front he was geared down, but that type of regression is concerning, particularly as he’s stretching out again by another sixteenth of a mile and being asked to run around two turns for the first time. Based on his pedigree, I think that could be an issue as a Race Lens query reveals sons and daughters of Maclean’s Music have done well in stakes but mostly up to and including one mile. Proportionality, the dam of River Thames, was a sprinter and that is another reason I am taking a stand against the potential favorite as a win contender.
Similar to River Thames, there are concerns with Keep It Easy, who won the Ed Brown Stakes when last seen at the end of November. He earned a 94 Equibase Speed Figure for the effort, and, although his sire, Hard Spun, finished second in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, of late not many of his progeny have won a race at this level and distance. However, it must be noted his son Two Phils finished second in the 2023 Kentucky Derby (and won the Ohio Derby) and his son Built finished third in this year’s Risen Star Stakes. Due to concerns about pedigree, I’ll wait to see how Keep It Easy performs at this distance before endorsing him. Gate to Wire won the Swale Stakes last month by five lengths with a 94 speed figure, but the Swale has not been an effective prep for winning the Fountain of Youth recently as the 2024 winner finished third in this race and the 2021 winner finished. Neoequos, whose best figure (91) was earned when second in the FTBOA Florida Sire Affirmed Stakes in October, is similar to River Thames in that he is out of a mare who was a sprinter with her other foals being sprinters as well. Additionally, from an outside post it appears he will have to use a lot of speed to get to the rail and the lead, where he likes to be, and that makes him susceptible to being passed in the final stages of the race. McKellen ran very well in the first two starts of his career, particularly when second at a mile in November with a 90 speed figure. That race was won by Disco Time, who won the Lecomte Stakes on the Road to the Derby in January. Solid Left won at this track and distance on Jan. 26, earning an 80 Equibase Speed Figure, and that effort requires too much improvement to get to the level of about 100 needed to win this race, in my opinion.
Following that handicapping process, I’m down to Sovereignty and Burnham Square as the two horses which possess the bulk of the probability to win this race. Sovereignty improved in all three races as a 2-year-old, going from an 87 Equibase Speed Figure when stretched out to a mile for his second start to a 96 figure when running in his first race around two turns. That race was the Street Sense Stakes, in which Sovereignty started an eye-catching rally with a quarter-mile to go, six paths wide, going from ninth to second with an eighth of a mile to run. Further accelerating, Sovereignty drew off by five lengths at the end. I have little concern about the layoff of more than three months, given the colt calls the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott home, because Mott has shown a knack for getting horses to run big off similar layoffs. Considering how much a horse can grow physically from the end of their 2-year-old season to their 3-year-old campaign, I think Sovereignty is going to improve markedly off his last effort, making him the horse to beat in this year’s Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Burnham Square has the advantage of a more recent race compared with Sovereignty, as he won the Holy Bull Stakes last month on this main track. Like Sovereignty, Burnham Square is on an improving pattern of speed figures. He earned an 86 figure in his first two-turn race in November, then posted a 92 when winning easily by nine lengths near the end of the year, and most recently earned a 95 in the Holy Bull. Blinkers added for his second race made a big difference, and I can see Burnham Square taking another big step forward off his last effort. If that is the case, the battle to the finish line between he and Sovereignty may be something to behold.
Win Contenders:
Sovereignty
Burnham Square
Superfecta
2-6-7-3
2-6-7-3
$27
Superfecta
2-6-7-3
2-6-7-3
$27
