The Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing drew a strong field of 11, with seven entrants having won a stakes race to date. Leading that group are Stronghold, who won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in April, and Seize the Grey, winner of the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes in May. However, Seize the Grey has finished seventh and fourth since then while Stronghold finished seventh and second since his win at this top level.
The Pennsylvania Derby entrant in the best current form is Dragoon Guard, having won the Grade 3 Indiana Derby in July followed by a victory in the Grade 3 West Virginia Derby in August. Dragoon Guard is trained by Brad Cox, who won the 2023 Pennsylvania Derby with Saudi Crown. Protective is the only other horse in the field to come into this race off a win. It was a maiden win four weeks ago at Saratoga, but it must be noted the colt finished third in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino in April while still winless and followed that up with a third-place finish in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes in May. Unmatched Wisdom won the Curlin Stakes in July before a seventh-place finish in the Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes last month. Doc Sullivan has won four of nine races, including the Mike Lee Stakes for New York-breds in June. Uncle Heavy won the Withers Stakes at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby in February, but only has a third-place effort as his best placing in four races since then. Lonesome Boy won the non-graded City of Brotherly Love Stakes on this track in March but has run poorly in three races since then. Timeout was third behind Unmatched Wisdom in the Curlin Stakes two months ago then second in his most recent race and appears to be improving. Just Step On It has won three of 11 and was recently second in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx Racing four weeks ago. Who’s the King rounds out the field, with a 1-for-11 record while running in a stakes race for the first time.
Main win contenders:
In the 2023 Pennsylvania Derby, Saudi Crown, trained by Brad Cox, set the pace and led from start to finish under jockey Florent Geroux, winning by a half-length as the betting favorite. This year, Cox brings Dragoon Guard into the race as the probable betting favorite, with the same running style and the same jockey aboard. However, different than last year, when Saudi Crown entered the race off a runner-up effort, Dragoon Guard enters the race seeking his fifth straight win, the last two in similar stakes races. Dragoon Guard won the Indiana Derby on the first weekend in July, leading in hand and steadily increasing his margin to the finish line, earning a 106 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. Four weeks later, using the same tactics, Dragoon Guard once again set a measured pace and extended his margin in the stretch with a similar 105 speed figure. Considering the makeup of this race, none of the horses inside Dragoon Guard in the starting gate are expected to challenge for the early lead. This will once again give Geroux the opportunity to put this long-striding, gray colt on the front end from where he can get into a steady rhythm and not be caught. This is particularly true since the West Virginia Derby was the first time Dragoon Guard ran the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Pennsylvania Derby. As such, Dragoon Guard appears to be the one to catch, and to beat, in this field.
Unmatched Wisdom won the first three races of his career beginning in May through July, culminating with a victory in the Curlin Stakes at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby. That effort earned Unmatched Wisdom a career-best 107 Equibase Speed Figure certainly as fast as the two best figures of 106 and 105 that Dragoon Guard has earned to date. In his only start since, trying 1 ¼ miles for the first time in the Travers Stakes four weeks ago, Unmatched Wisdom was bumped at the start and never got near the front as he had in all three previous races. Additionally, a wrapping on one of his legs came loose and was flapping behind him, which could have been another reason he ended up seventh of eight and badly beaten. Not only should the cut back in distance to 1 1/8 miles help him, but Unmatched Wisdom is reunited with jockey Flavien Prat, who was aboard for all three of the colts wins but not the defeat last month. One more interesting note is that trainer Chad Brown won the 2016 Pennsylvania Derby with Connect, who finished sixth in the Travers the previous month.
Timeout has never finished farther back then third in five races, winning once. That effort came at this 1 1/8-mile trip in June. He followed it up with a career-best effort and 101 Equibase Speed Figure when third behind Unmatched Wisdom in the Curlin Stakes in July. In his most recent race, Timeout closed well from fourth, and 6 ½ lengths back, in the early stages to finish second by a half-length. This well-bred son of Curlin is trained by Bill Mott, who won the 2011 Pennsylvania Derby with a horse coming out of an allowance race at Saratoga … the same as Timeout. So, it would behoove us to give this colt a look when considering who has a chance to win.
Honorable mention goes to Stronghold, who finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve after winning the Santa Anita Derby in April. Stronghold enters the race off a decent second to Dragoon Guard. While no match for that colt in the stretch, the 102 speed figure was a career-best. Protective was so highly regarded that even as a maiden he ran in the Wood Memorial Stakes, Peter Pan Stakes, and Belmont Stakes this past spring. He earned a 99 speed figure in the Peter Pan when third and a similar 97 figure when earning his first win in his most recent start. Protective is another that could be a factor for a minor award. Doc Sullivan is an extremely consistent colt who has finished first or second in eight of nine races. All but one came against New York-breds only, but he won his only start against non-restricted company and when trying 1 1/8 miles for the first time last month ran well to be second with a 97 figure. His odds may be high, and as such he might be a horse we must consider for any exactas we play in this race.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Just Step On It (101), Lonesome Boy (91), Seize the Grey (101), Uncle Heavy (98) and Who’s the King (95).
Win contenders in probability order:
Dragoon Guard
Unmatched Wisdom
Timeout
Pick 3
1/2-6-2
1/2-6-2
$23
Superfecta
2-11-7-10
2-11-7-10
$196
Trifecta
2-11-7
2-11-7
$62
Pick 3
1/2-6-2
1/2-6-2
$23
Superfecta
2-11-7-10
2-11-7-10
$196
Trifecta
2-11-7
2-11-7
$62
