The historic $2 million, Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bet has been contested at a wide variety of distances and tracks since its inaugural running in 1867, but for the majority of its history it’s been held at 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park

That won’t be the case in 2024. Due to renovations at Belmont Park, the 156th edition of the Belmont Stakes has been moved to Saratoga Race Course — which will host the great race for the first time — and shortened to 1 1/4 miles. The last time the Belmont took place at 1 1/4 miles was in 1905.

How might these changes impact the outcome of the Belmont? We have some thoughts. After digging through the recent history of the Belmont, we’ve identified a large handful of handicapping trends and tendencies that often hold true. And we’ve highlighted a couple that might be affected by the change in configuration.

Here are our tips for using recent history to analyze the 2024 Belmont Stakes:

Don’t drop too far off the early pace

While it’s possible for horses to rally from midfield and win the Belmont, deep-closing winners have been uncommon. Over the past 15 years, 12 Belmont winners raced within 4 1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile, and six winners raced in first, second, or third position at that point.

In short, having some degree of tactical speed is an asset in the Belmont, and history suggests it’s unwise to bet a horse who is likely to fall 10 or 12 lengths off the early pace. That said, this is perhaps the most likely trend to be affected by the Belmont shortening from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/4 miles, as the shorter distance could speed up the pace and give deep closers a better chance to factor.

Note: As part of a Triple Crown season restructured due to COVID-19, the 2020 Belmont Stakes was contested over 1 1/8 miles.

Kentucky Derby and Peter Pan alumni have an edge

Peter Pan Stakes winner Antiquarian (Eclipse Sportswire)

Two races have proved the dominant steppingstones to the Belmont: the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes.

Kentucky Derby starters have won 12 of the last 20 editions of the Belmont, with 10 of those 12 winners going directly from the Derby to the Belmont without a race in between.

Meanwhile, the Peter Pan (or an equivalent race contested under the exact same conditions) has churned out four Belmont winners since 2010, including last year’s Arcangelo.

Belmont contenders who ran in the Kentucky Derby: Dornoch, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Resilience, Sierra Leone

Belmont contenders exiting the Peter Pan: Antiquarian, The Wine Steward, Protective

Be wary of Preakness veterans

Despite its prestige as the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes hasn’t been an especially effective steppingstone to Belmont glory in recent decades. Only three Preakness alumni from the past 20 years have come back to win the Belmont; notably, all three (Afleet Alex, American Pharoah, and Justify) won both races. You have to go back to Victory Gallop in 1998 to find the last horse who bounced back from a Preakness defeat to win the Belmont.

Belmont contenders exiting the Preakness: Seize the Grey (winner), Mystik Dan, Tuscan Gold 

Double-digit longshots often surprise

Creator winning Belmont Stakes. (Eclipse Sportswire)

After a dry spell from 2006 through 2014, Belmont favorites have enjoyed strong success in recent years, winning five of the nine editions since 2015. That boosts their overall record from the past 20 years to six wins, a 30% success rate.

But favorites have actually been outperformed over the past two decades by double-digit longshots. Since 2004, we’ve seen Sir Winston (10.20-1), Creator (16.40-1), Palace Malice (13.80-1), Ruler On Ice (24.75-1), Drosselmeyer (13-1), Summer Bird (11.90-1), Da’ Tara (38.50-1), and Birdstone (36-1) spring major surprises. That’s eight double-digit winners from the past 20 years.

Established graded stakes winners have an edge

Horses who have proved their worth as graded stakes winners are the most likely to win the Belmont. Established graded stakes winners have prevailed in 13 of the last 20 Belmonts, including nine of the last 10.

Expounding on that statistic, six of the seven horses who scored their initial graded victory in the Belmont had previously placed in a graded stakes, so they weren’t inexperienced maiden or allowance winners tackling the graded ranks for the first time. They had already run competitively against quality competition.

Belmont contenders who have won graded stakes: Antiquarian, Dornoch, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Resilience, Seize the Grey, Sierra Leone

Todd Pletcher is the dominant trainer

Todd Pletcher (Eclipse Sportswire)

One of the most successful trainers in recent Belmont history is Todd Pletcher. The Hall of Fame conditioner has won the Belmont four times with Rags to Riches (2007), Palace Malice (2013), Tapwrit (2017), and Mo Donegal (2022).

Pletcher has also saddled eight Belmont runners-up and four third-place finishers since 2006. In 2022, he ran 1-2 with Mo Donegal and Nest; in 2023, he finished 2-3 with Forte and Tapit Trice. It all adds up to this: since 2006, a lofty 29% of Belmont trifecta finishers have hailed from Pletcher’s barn.

Belmont contenders trained by Todd Pletcher: Antiquarian, Mindframe, Protective

Grade 1 winners over 1 1/8 miles or farther sire the most Belmont winners

This trend could be affected by the shortening of the Belmont from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/4 miles, but it’s worth noting sons of sprinters rarely win the Belmont. Seventeen of the last 20 Belmont winners were sired by stallions who won at the Grade 1 level racing 1 1/8 miles or farther.

Belmont contenders sired by stallions who won a Grade 1 over 1 1/8 miles or farther: Antiquarian, Dornoch, Honor Marie, Mindframe, Mystik Dan, Protective, Seize the Grey, Sierra Leone, The Wine Steward, Tuscan Gold 

Conclusions

After considering all the trends outlined above, a couple of prospective Belmont Stakes contenders are solid matches for the historical profile of a typical winner.

The first is Antiquarian, an improving Todd Pletcher trainee exiting a pace-tracking victory in the Peter Pan. Antiquarian is a graded stakes winner with tactical speed exiting a key Belmont prep race, and his sire (Preservationist) won the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 1 Woodward Stakes, so historical trends suggest Antiquarian will be formidable this Saturday.

Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Dornoch (Eclipse Sportswire)

Dornoch is the other runner we have to highlight. He employed pacesetting tactics to win the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes and Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, then faltered when beaten to the lead in the both the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and the Kentucky Derby, finishing fourth and tenth.

However, Dornoch’s Kentucky Derby effort wasn’t bad. He ran into early trouble while breaking from the rail, but never gave up and passed a few rivals late. If he draws a better post and is able to make the lead through a modest pace, Dornoch could rebound in a big way in the Belmont. He isn’t trained by Todd Pletcher, but there’s a chance Dornoch will start as a double-digit longshot, and as a son of 1 1/8-mile, Grade 1 Haskell Stakes winner Good Magic he fits the majority of our historical trends.

Blue Grass and Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes winner Sierra Leone may start as the Belmont favorite after rallying to finish second by a nose in the Kentucky Derby, but while he passes many of our checklist items, his deep-closing style may place him at a disadvantage in the Belmont. Unless, of course, the shorter distance proves more favorable to stretch runners.

Seize the Grey, who sprung a gate-to-wire upset in the Preakness Stakes one start after winning the Grade 2 Pat Day Stakes Presented by SAP, also faces a few disadvantages. The accomplished speedster is a son of 1 1/4-mile, Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Arrogate, so that’s a positive. But he didn’t compete in the Kentucky Derby or Peter Pan, and he’s exiting the Preakness, which hasn’t been the most productive steppingstone toward the Belmont.

Mystik Dan,the ground-saving Kentucky Derby winner, has put together a productive winter-spring campaign to emerge as the nation’s most accomplished 3-year-old at the moment. But while this midpack closer might have enough tactical speed to stay within our preferred 4 1/2 lengths of the early lead, the fact he’s exiting a runner-up finish in the Preakness is a cause for pause.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the Belmont Stakes!