A terrific field is expected to start in the $4 million, Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf Nov. 2 at Del Mar. Horses who last raced in the United States, England, France, Ireland, Germany, and Japan are among the pre-entrants.

More often than not, horses based outside the U.S. win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. But with so many international challengers in the entries, determining the most likely winner isn’t easy.

That’s where history can help out. Reviewing past results of the Breeders’ Cup Turf reveals eight trends bettors can use to narrow down the top contenders:

Stretch runners usually prevail

Once in a while, you’ll see a horse with early speed win the Breeders’ Cup Turf — in 2016, Highland Reel led from start to finish —  but usually the race is won by horses who rally from off the pace.

Indeed, 12 of the last 15 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf (and 10 of the last 11) have been won by horses racing between fifth place and 13th place after the opening half-mile. Horses closing from the back half of the pack win the Breeders’ Cup Turf with regularity, so favoring stretch runners is the way to go when planning your bets.

Betting favorites typically crack the top four

The betting favorite usually records a top-four finish in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, doing so in 13 out of the last 15 years. To put it another way, if you’ve been excluding favorites from superfecta tickets, you’ve lost 87% of such bets since 2009.

Favorites have done especially well in recent years, winning three out of the last six editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

International raiders outshine the home team

Irish-bred Auguste Rodin shipped in from Europe to win the 2023 BC Turf. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Horses based outside of North America have long dominated the Breeders’ Cup Turf, especially during the last quarter-century. Of the last 26 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners — there were two winners because of a dead heat in 2003 — 20 (77%) were based overseas, leaving six wins for the home team. Only one North American runner, Bricks and Mortar in 2019, has managed to prevail in the last nine years.

Foreign-bred horses, led by Irish-breds, win more often than not

Did you know 25 out of the 41 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (56%) were bred outside of North America? This includes 20 of the last 30 winners (67%) and eight of the last 10 (80%), indicating the dominance of foreign-bred runners in the Breeders’ Cup Turf is only growing.

Ireland has produced the most Breeders’ Cup Turf winners at 17 (41%), including 16 of the last 30. Great Britain (six winners, 14.6%), France (one winner, 2.4%), and Germany (one winner, 2.4%) have also produced Breeders’ Cup Turf winners, leaving 16 winners (39%) bred in North America.

O’Brien, Appleby are the current top trainers

Many of Ireland’s Breeders’ Cup Turf winners have been conditioned by Aidan O’Brien. The renowned Irish trainer has won a record seven editions of the Turf, all with Irish-breds. His tally includes five winners in the last 13 years: Auguste Rodin (2023), Highland Reel (2016), Found (2015), Magician (2013), and St Nicholas Abbey (2011). Just as impressively, 18 of O’Brien’s 34 Breeders’ Cup Turf starters (53%) have recorded top-three finishes.

Charlie Appleby is another formidable trainer to watch. From just five starters in three editions of the Turf, Appleby has recorded two wins with Yibir (2021) and Rebel’s Romance (2022). Appleby’s record across all Breeders’ Cup races stands at a stellar 10-for-20 (50%), so any horse Appleby saddles must be respected.

Moore, Dettori are the dominant jockeys

Elite European rider Ryan Moore (Eclipse Sportswire)

Internationally renowned jockeys Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore have enjoyed abundant success in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Dettori has ridden 21 horses in the Turf, winning five times while finishing in the top four on 13 occasions. Moore’s record is even better with five wins, four seconds, three thirds, and two fourths from 14 rides. In other words, all 14 of Moore’s mounts have finished in the top four.

Favor proven Grade 1/Group 1 winners

It’s uncommon for horses without a Grade 1 or Group 1 win to take home first prize in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Sixteen of the last 20 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (80%) had previously won a top-tier race.

Don’t underestimate fillies and mares

Sometimes fillies and mares opt to compete against males in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, rather than face fellow females in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. When this happens, pay attention.

During the last decade, fillies and mares have made 14 starts in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. They’ve recorded three wins courtesy of Found (2015), Enable (2018), and Tarnawa (2020). Even better, fillies and mares ran 1-2 in both 2018 and 2020. Given their relatively limited participation, the fact fillies and mares have won three of the last 10 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf (30%) is impressive.

Conclusions

Analyzing the pre-entries for the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Turf, three contenders stand out as the most likely winners from a historical standpoint. They are, in alphabetical order, Emily Upjohn, Luxembourg, and Rebel’s Romance.

Emily Upjohn (Eclipse Sportswire)

Emily Upjohn, a 5-year-old mare, has won multiple Group 1 races in Europe. In June 2023, with Frankie Dettori in the saddle, she beat males in the 1 1/2-mile Group 1 Dahlbury Coronation Cup at Epsom in England. The British-bred mare is reuniting with Dettori for the Breeders’ Cup Turf and exits a strong third-place finish in the Group 1 Qatar Prix Vermeille against Bluestocking, who returned to win the prestigious Group 1 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Luxembourg has also won multiple Group 1 races abroad. During the spring, he won the Coronation Cup under the guidance of Ryan Moore. Trained by Aidan O’Brien, the Irish-bred 5-year-old has competed with aplomb around the globe and exits a 2 1/4-length defeat against fierce competition in the Group 1 Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes, so he remains a formidable player with a strong chance to shine in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

As for Rebel’s Romance, the Irish-bred 6-year-old has already tasted Breeders’ Cup Turf glory, winning this race by 2 1/4 lengths in 2022. He struggled in 2023, but has bounced back to his best in 2024, winning four out of five starts (including three Group 1 races in three different countries) for trainer Charlie Appleby. His lone defeat this year came when third to Goliath and Bluestocking in the 1 1/2-mile Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

Separating these three to determine the single most likely winner is difficult. History doesn’t clearly favor one over the others. If pressed, I might give the slightest edge to Rebel’s Romance, who figures to start as the betting favorite. Even though Rebel’s Romance has shown tactical speed as of late, he won the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Turf with a rally from 10th place, and a return to off-the-pace tactics this year would give Rebel’s Romance the slimmest historical advantage over Emily Upjohn and Luxembourg.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the race!