The field for the $1 million, Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes Saturday at Monmouth Park contains six winners of stakes races for 3-year-olds among its eight entrants. Listing them in order of earnings to date, we start with Dornoch ($1.75 million), who drew the rail position in the starting gate and comes off an upset win in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets last month. He also won the Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes in March.
Fierceness ($1.7 million) disappointed when fifteenth as the post-time favorite in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve when last seen, but he won the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa by 13 ½ lengths prior to that. Timberlake ($1.1 million) rounds out the trio of millionaires entered in the Haskell, which is a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic. Timberlake won a Kentucky Derby prep race back in February, the lucrative Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. Mindframe proved he belongs at this Grade 1 level when coming up a half-length short to Dornoch in the Belmont Stakes after making the lead early in the stretch. Tuscan Sky was visually impressive when drawing off to a 6 ¾-length win in the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth last month and is another who appears capable of racing competitively in this field. Sea Streak won the Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth in May before a fifth-place effort in the Pegasus, and hopes to reverse his fortune. Jasper’s Pride tries stakes company for the first time, while Just Step On It recently won an allowance-level race in Pennsylvania. Both appear to have their work cut out for them in this talented field.
Analysis and top contenders:
Although Dornoch was the top selection on these pages last month in the Belmont Stakes, and can win again on Saturday, I feel Tuscan Sky has just a bit more probability to win and may offer better value for our wagering dollars as well.
Considering there are a number of horses in the Haskell field which have run their best races on the lead – or no further back than third in the early stages – I see two potential early pace scenarios which benefit Tuscan Sky, as well as Dornoch. Inversely, neither scenario benefits Fierceness at all, and I will take a stand against him.
The first of the two early pace scenarios has Tuscan Sky going for the lead from the start from the no. 3 post position, with Dornoch sitting second just as he did behind Seize the Grey in the Belmont Stakes. In that race, Mindframe took the lead by a head over Dornoch with an eighth of a mile to run, before Dornoch reasserted himself the rest of the way to prevail by a half-length. Under this Haskell pace scenario, Tuscan Sky may have a slight edge as he earned a career-best 111 Equibase Speed Figure last month in the Pegasus Stakes, which I believe was the result of blinkers going on for the first time. Tuscan Sky wears them again for the Haskell.
The other early pace scenario consists of Fierceness going for the lead from the no. 5 post, as that is the way he won the Florida Derby in March with a 110 Equibase figure. He also acted like a “need the lead” type in the Kentucky Derby when he vied for the lead through the opening quarter-mile before giving way badly. In all three of his wins, Fierceness has won when in front by at least two lengths with an eighth of a mile to go, and that is unlikely to be the case in this race.
If this second scenario takes place, taking up second behind Fierceness at the start should be Dornoch, considering jockey Luis Saez is an aggressive rider and won’t give up the rail position. This puts Tuscan Sky in a similar position to the one Dornoch was early in the Belmont when stalking Seize the Grey before taking over late in the race. Considering that both of these scenarios have Tuscan Sky in first, second or third early, and then considering how he extended his lead from three lengths to nearly seven in the final eighth of a mile in the Pegasus (earning a 111 figure which was faster than the 106 figure Dornoch earned in the Belmont), Tuscan Sky gets slight preference in the Haskell.
Dornoch earned a 102 Equibase Speed Figure in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and then as I argued in my Belmont Stakes analysis, his subsequent efforts in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and Kentucky Derby could be ignored because he was asked to take back in the former then was shuffled back and checked in the latter, with no chance to be on or near the early lead. When aggressive tactics were once again used in the Belmont Stakes, Dornoch returned to the form shown not only in the Fountain of Youth but also last fall when winning the Remsen Stakes at the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Haskell. Projecting further improvement, Dornoch could run fast enough Saturday to earn a 110 figure which is on par with the 111 figure Tuscan Sky earned in his most recent race, so if Tuscan Sky doesn’t improve as expected, we could be in for a thrilling race.
Then there’s Mindframe, who in spite of only having run twice to date prior to the Belmont looked like a potential winner with an eighth of a mile to run. That mark where Mindframe led in the Belmont is where the Haskell ends, and as he improved from a 99 figure in his second career start to a 105 in the Belmont, Mindframe is another contender that’s projected to run as fast as both Tuscan Sky and Dornoch. Actually, it is possible Mindframe has even more upside given this is only his fourth career start and third in a two-turn race.
Two of the horses some may consider contenders but I do not are Fierceness and Timberlake. The reasons for taking a stand against Fierceness were stated above – but in case it wasn’t clear, I feel he has no path to victory from off the pace and there are three horses who all appear faster than he is. Timberlake ran his best two-turn race ever when winning the Rebel Stakes in February off nearly four months away, earning a 105 figure. On the other hand, the Rebel turned out to be what is known as a “negative key race” from which not a single horse won in their subsequent starts. Even if Timberlake can repeat his Rebel effort, it is likely not good enough to win.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Jasper’s Pride (93), Just Step On It (91) and Sea Streak (105).
Win Contenders in preference order:
Tuscan Sky
Dornoch
Mindframe
Pick 4
8-8-3-1
8-8-3-1
$739
Superfecta
1-7-4-6
1-7-4-6
$33
Pick 4
8-8-3-1
8-8-3-1
$739
Superfecta
1-7-4-6
1-7-4-6
$33
