If you’re a fan of Beyer Speed Figures or Brisnet Speed ratings, you know which horse you’ll be betting to win Saturday’s $250,000, Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct.
Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet Speed ratings both seek the same goal: to compare the speed of racehorses who compete across different distances, tracks, and days. Many factors can influence the raw time of a horse race, so Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet Speed ratings attempt to calculate the impact of those factors and convert raw times into numbers (85, 88, 97, 104 etc.) that can be compared regardless of circumstances. The higher the number, the better.
It’s a tricky task, made even more complicated by the fact racehorses routinely improve or regress from one race to the next. But when you’re handicapping a horse race and multiple speed figure scales suggest one horse is faster than the others, there’s a good chance you’re looking at the most likely winner.
Such is the case in the Remsen, a 1 1/8-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier awarding 10-5-3-2-1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve points to the top five finishers. Both the Beyer and Brisnet scales indicate #5 Keewaydin is the fastest entrant, so he must be rated as the horse to beat.
Conditioned by four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown, Keewaydin debuted on Aug. 24 in a maiden special weight sprinting three-quarters of a mile at Saratoga. After settling a couple of lengths off the pace in third place, Keewaydin closed ground gamely to finish third by a neck. Already two of the other entrants from that debut race have come back to perform well on the Road to the Kentucky Derby: the victorious Tip Top Thomas finished second in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, while fourth-place finisher Sovereignty (beaten by three lengths by Keewaydin) won the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes.
Unsurprisingly, Keewaydin won his second start without much difficulty. Favored at odds of 1-5 to win a maiden special weight dashing seven-eighths of a mile at Aqueduct, Keewaydin dueled for the early lead, opened up a three-length advantage in early stretch, and finished up strongly (running his final eighth of a mile in :12.10) to prevail by 1 3/4 lengths. The runner-up pulled 10 lengths clear of the rest.
Keewaydin hit the finish line in the snappy time of 1:22.09, an excellent clocking that earned a 92 Brisnet Speed rating (one point lower than the 93 he posted on debut) and a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. None of the other Remsen entrants have posted a number in the 90s on either scale.
If there’s one possible vulnerability with Keewaydin, it’s the fact the Remsen is a quarter-mile longer than Keewaydin’s last race, and his pedigree (by Instagrand out of a mare by Officer) is geared more toward speed than stamina. But on the bright side, the Remsen isn’t overly packed with pace, so Keewaydin should have every opportunity to set or press a modest pace and carry his speed the full 1 1/8-mile distance.
There’s one other positive in Keewaydin’s corner: he’ll be ridden by hot jockey Dylan Davis. According to Brisnet statistics, over the last 60 days Davis has won at a phenomenal 42% rate when teaming up with Brown.
For all these reasons, we recommend betting Keewaydin to win the Remsen. Your strategy doesn’t have to be complicated; with luck you’ll be able to at least double your money with a win bet.
But if you want to invest a bit more capital and shoot for a bigger payoff, why not add a trifecta bet, which requires selecting the top three finishers in order? By playing Keewaydin on top and using #1 Tux and #4 Studlydoright for second and third place, you should have every chance to cash a winning ticket.
Studlydoright is the most accomplished horse in the Remsen field. Twice he’s won at the stakes level, taking the Tremont Stakes by 1 3/4 lengths and the Nashua Stakes by half a length. The latter victory came racing one mile at Aqueduct last month, and stretching out over 1 1/8 miles shouldn’t be an issue for Studlydoright since he’s a son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of a mare by two-time Horse of the Year Curlin.
Tux isn’t nearly as experienced as Studlydoright but he made a nice first impression when dominating a maiden special weight sprint at Aqueduct last month by 3 1/2 lengths. The son of Tapit has a strong chance to run as well or better while stretching out in distance for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who wins at a 20% rate in graded stakes per Brisnet statistics.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #5 Keewaydin
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 7, $10 to win on 5
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$18 to win on #5 Keewaydin
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 7, $18 to win on 5
$6 trifecta: 5 with 1,4 with 1,4 (total cost $12)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 7, $6 trifecta 5 with 1,4 with 1,4
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Pick 4
1-5-2/5-3
1-5-2/5-3
$154
Pick 5
3/7-1-5-2/5-3
3/7-1-5-2/5-3
$334
Superfecta
3-2-1-4
3-2-1-4
$49
Pick 4
1-5-2/5-3
1-5-2/5-3
$154
Pick 5
3/7-1-5-2/5-3
3/7-1-5-2/5-3
$334
Superfecta
3-2-1-4
3-2-1-4
$49
