The Grade 2, $200,000 Saratoga Special Stakes Saturday at Saratoga Race Course drew a field of nine 2-year-olds, all running the 6 ½-furlong distance for the first time.
Six of the nine enter the race off a win, with the other three having finished second in their most recent races. Two of the three horses that finished second recently did so in stakes – Touchy in the Tremont Stakes and Smoken Wicked in the Bashford Manor. Among the others in the field, Good Directions is the only horse to have faced winners and he, too, finished second in his most recent race. The other six all won their most recent races in the maiden ranks with Showcase and Noble Force the most impressive, winning by 7 ½ lengths and 9 ½ lengths, respectively. Global Legend, First Resort, Keep It Easy, and Ace It all won nicely in their most recent races as well.
Analysis & Contenders:
Although he has not run the fastest race in the field, Smoken Wicked may still be the one to beat based on the fact that he closed from second to win his debut by 7 ½ lengths before rallying from 10th to second in his second career start. That runner-up effort came in the Bashford Manor Stakes at the end of June at Churchill Downs, where Smoken Wicked broke very well to be first in initial stages, but then dropped back to seventh. Appearing to lose focus after encountering some trouble and drifting further back to 10th with a quarter-mile to run, all of the sudden Smoken Wicked picked up the pace. In the span of one-eighth of a mile and, in spite of running seven paths wide, the colt passed seven horses to go from 10th to second. With a jockey change to Tyler Gaffalione and breaking from the ground-saving rail instead of the extreme outside, Smoken Wicked gets a made-to-order early pace scenario for his late kick, as six of the other horses all won when leading from the start, while another (Touchy) led from the start before settling for second. Although he earned a 73 Equibase Speed Figure, well short of the field-high 89 figure Keep It Easy earned in his most recent race, Smoken Wicked may be able to take a huge step forward to win the Saratoga Special with his late kick, particularly as Keep It Easy earned his high figure leading from start to finish and may not be able to get an easy lead in this field as he did last time out.
Showcase is the second fastest horse on paper with an 87 Equibase Speed Figure earned in his debut last month. He started third in the race then took up a stalking position in second behind the early leader. On the far turn, Showcase accelerated and drew off by 7 ½ lengths. He was driven out at the end rather than winning in hand, likely with this race — which is one furlong longer than his debut — in mind. With Irad Ortiz Jr. riding back for the strong Todd Pletcher barn, Showcase might only need to repeat that effort, not improve upon it, to win this year’s Saratoga Special.
Although Touchy was in front of the field after a quarter-mile had been run in his only previous race, the Tremont Stakes, he did not break on top. Rather, he was fairly relaxed in the opening strides while third, then took over on his own to lead by a length. After drifting out to the middle of the track, jockey Joel Rosario, who rides again, asked Touchy to move toward the rail to see a rival while at the same time the eventual winner put in a rousing rally to win. Blinkers come off for this race, which should allow Touchy to see his opponents better and dig in, so improving off a very fine 80 speed figure earned first time out seems very likely.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Ace It (61), First Resort (78), Global Legend (82), Good Directions (75), Keep It Easy (89), and Noble Force (79).
Win Contenders, in preference order:
Smoken Wicked
Showcase
Touchy
Superfecta
2-4-1-5
2-4-1-5
$42
Superfecta
2-4-1-5
2-4-1-5
$42
