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Princess Mayfair Can Pull Off Upset in Busanda Stakes
Gambling
The Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct Saturday carries $100,000 in prize money and offers a total of 42 Road to the Kentucky Oaks points, including 20 to the winner.
Shimmering Allure leads the field based on her runner-up effort in the Grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes last month. Gin Gin finished second in the Rags to Riches Stakes in October before a disappointing fifth-place effort in the Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes Nov. 25. Most of All was an impressive 10 ¼-length winner in October but could only manage fourth in the Demoiselle. Princess Mayfair makes her first start in a stakes and enters the Busanda off a runner-up effort in her first two-turn try last month. Class Act is the only horse in the field to have won at the 1 1/8-mile distance of this race, having done just that five weeks ago on this track when earning her first win in her third career start.
Top contenders:
Princess Mayfair may not have run in a stakes as have three of the other four Busanda entrants, but she’s run the fastest of any horse in the field, having earned an 88 Equibase Speed Figure in her most recent start, which was also her first try around two turns. Improving from a poor 55 figure in her debut in November, Princess Mayfair led from start to finish in a 5 ½-furlong sprint in career start number two in December, earning a 70 speed figure. When sent around two turns for the first time on Dec. 16, facing winners for the first time as well, the filly established an easy lead soon after the start. Still leading on the far turn, Princess Mayfair widened her lead by two lengths with an eighth of a mile to run. Although caught by the winner thereafter, Princess Mayfair was five lengths clear of the next horse. Not only should she be more physically fit in her second route race, the pattern of improvement suggests Princess Mayfair can run even faster and therefore she may be the one to catch, and to beat, in this year’s Busanda Stakes.
Shimmering Allure is the one to beat on paper as she is the only stakes winner in the field. That victory came in the Tempted Stakes, a one-turn mile race at Aqueduct Nov. 5. Shimmering Allure rallied from seventh of eight in the Tempted to win by three lengths in visually impressive fashion, earning an 85 Equibase Speed Figure. Four weeks later she stepped up in class and stretched out to 1 1/8 miles for the Demoiselle Stakes, rallying from fifth to second into the stretch and holding that position to the finish line behind Life Talk, who had led every step since the gates opened. In the Demoiselle, Shimmering Allure earned an 84 speed figure similar to the Tempted and she may have run faster if asked to, but since it appeared the winner could not be caught her jockey saved some energy for this, her next start. Although Shimmering Allure may have the class to succeed and is proven at the level, there’s a chance, particularly in a small field like this one, Princess Mayfair may be alone on an easy lead the same way Life Talk was in the Demoiselle and that could pose a problem for Shimmering Allure. Then again, she may prove very tough in the final stages as she was when winning the Tempted Stakes.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Class Act (81), Gin Gin (84), and Most of All (86).
Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Princess Mayfair