
Power Rankings: Owen Almighty Enters Derby Top 10 after Tampa Tour de Force
Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.
Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
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Six Beginner Betting Tools
The Saratoga meet – and the whole summer for that matter – has flown by this year. Thankfully for horseplayers, however, the Spa racing season still has one loaded weekend of racing and wagering still left to go leading up to Labor Day before it wraps up for the season. Saratoga will host meaningful stakes races every day this holiday weekend, perhaps none of which will be more impactful than Sunday’s running of the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes. Sunday at the Spa will also feature a solid undercard stakes feature on the turf with the $150,000 Bernard Baruch Stakes. For this weekend’s winners, let’s focus on Sunday’s stakes races at Saratoga. If we can cash bets on these features, we will be well on our way to an enjoyable Labor Day holiday betting the Spa. Best of luck.
Saratoga Race Course, Race 11, $150,000 Bernard Baruch Stakes, post time 5:42 p.m. ET
The supporting feature on the Sunday Saratoga program is the $150,000 Bernard Baruch Stakes for turf horses going 1 1/16 miles on the inner course with a field of seven entries plus two main-track-only horses. This race features some horses cutting back in distance from longer routes and generally lacks a lot of pace, so the advantage could go to the ones in the field with some speed or tactical speed. The horse to beat is #7 Taking Candy, who has run three turf races at Saratoga dating back to last summer and has been no worse than second in any of those races, including two wins and a second-place finish behind none other than Carl Spackler in last year’s Grade 3 Saranac Stakes. He can set the pace if necessary or sit a length or two behind, and figures to be sitting on a career-best effort here in his second start as a 4-year-old since coming back from a 10-month layoff with a solid win last time. The other horse in the field with the ability to stay on or close to the pace and who is fast enough to win this or at least fill out the exacta is #6 Steady On for trainer Todd Pletcher, who has been in the exacta in six of his 10 career races so far. Steady On owns a similar kind of stakes win in the 2023 Appleton Stakes at Gulfstream Park and may finally be ready to round into form today in the third race of the form cycle after finishing off the board in two races since his return from a layoff of nearly 15 months.
The Play: Bet on #7 Taking Candy (5-2) to win and play him in an exacta box with #6 Steady On (8-1).
Saratoga Race Course, Race 12, $1,000,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes, post time 6:15 p.m. ET
The Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup has a drawn a seven-horse field ready to run 1 ¼ miles and could serve as a springboard to the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic for its top finishers. #7 Arthur’s Ride has burst onto the national scene in a flash while blossoming into a monster in his last two races, both at Saratoga, which included a 12 ¾-length win with a 111 Beyer Speed Figure in an allowance optional claiming race at this 1 ¼-mile distance followed by another wire-to-wire blowout to win by 2 ¼ lengths last time in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes where he beat both #3 Bright Future and #4 Disarm from this race’s field as well as some other top older horses including Skippylongstocking, National Treasure, and First Mission. If anything, Sunday’s assignment will be easier than last time. He’s already proven at this 1 ¼-mile distance and should once again be able to control the pace on his way to another wire-to-wire victory. While I’m not attracted to the grinding type of running style of #1 Tapit Trice and #2 Kuchar in this race, there are a couple of others in the field who have appeal terms of filling out exacta and trifectas. #5 Pyrenees has really come into his own in his last two races when trading first- and second-place finishes with Kingsbarns in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special Stakes and the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes. A repeat of either of those efforts should be good enough to get him into the top two or three in this field. Then there’s #6 Highland Falls, who got shuffled back behind a slow pace when he settled for second behind Tapit Trice last time in the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup Stakes. He can certainly make a dent in this spot with a repeat of his prior efforts including a second in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap and first in the Grade 3 Blame Stakes June 1 at Churchill Downs.
The Play: Bet #7 Arthur’s Ride (4-5) to win and key him on top in the exacta and the trifectas above #5 Pyrenees (8-1) and #6 Highland Falls (5-1).