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Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.
Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
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Six Beginner Betting Tools
The year 2024 gets rolling in New York racing this Saturday with runnings of a pair of $150,000 stakes races at Aqueduct including the Ladies Stakes for fillies and mares and the Jerome Stakes for 3-year-olds aspiring to join the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The Jerome is a five-horse field that could be won by the favorite, so let’s concentrate our Saturday efforts on the late daily double at Aqueduct, beginning with the Ladies Stakes and ending in the ninth race nightcap. Enjoy New York racing from the Big A and have a winning day on Saturday. Let’s cash the late double!
Aqueduct, Race 8, $150,000 Ladies Stakes, post time 3:47 p.m. ET
The Saturday late daily double at Aqueduct gets started in Race 8 with the running of the $150,000 Ladies Stakes, which has drawn a six-horse field of fillies and mares set to go 1 1/8 miles on the main track. It’s an interesting race because all six horses in the field appear to be contenders. The horse to beat is #4 She’s Mo Bubbly, a Todd Pletcher trainee that has primarily run on turf but has had even better success on dirt with both career wins so far coming on the main track, including a victory last time at this track and distance with the field’s best Beyer Speed Figure. She’s Mo Bubbly has speed but doesn’t need the solo lead in order to win. After the top pick, there are question marks around the other challengers in the race, including logical morning-line favorite #6 Saddle Up Jessie, who invades from Laurel Park after a win in last month’s $100,000 Carousel Stakes but has never run before on the New York circuit. Perhaps a horse with a better chance in this spot is #2 Evidencias for trainer Christophe Clement. She needed a race two starts ago off a long layoff in her U.S. debut and then lost at a distance too short for her in a one-turn mile at Aqueduct behind repeat next-out winner Hot Fudge.
The Play: Start your late daily doubles with #2 Evidencias (3-1) and #4 She’s Mo Bubbly (5-2). Box that same pair in the exactas and bet to win on #4 She’s Mo Bubbly.
Aqueduct, Race 9, claiming race, $35,000 purse, post time 4:16 p.m. ET
The final race on Saturday’s nine-race card at Aqueduct could be a good one for bettors because both of the favorites on the morning line look beatable. This is an eight-horse field going six furlongs consisting of $12,500 claimers (horses which can be bought out of the race for that price) competing for a purse of $35,000. It’s not that the morning-line favorites, #4 Heir Port and #6 Mr Phil, can’t win, it’s just that others look more enticing at better odds. Let’s start with the pick in the race, #7 Striking Speed who is 9-2 odds on the morning line. Striking Speed has been in good recent form as part of a trend of improvement for trainer Wayne Potts and easily took care of business in a similar spot last time with Dylan Davis taking over riding duties, and with Davis back aboard he figures to get an ideal trip in this spot stalking right off all of the inside speed horses drawn in this race. Of those speedy inside horses, the one that poses the most threat looks like #1 Mi Tres Por Ciento. He’s a gelding that’s been in good form out of town, has raced at Aqueduct over the winter in the past, and had success to the tune of five exacta finishes in 10 races at this track with three wins. He can rate a bit, so don’t expect him to get fried on the pace.
The Play: For the back end of your late daily doubles, include both #1 Mi Tres Por Ciento (4-1) and #7 Striking Speed (9-2) on your tickets. Box those two horses in the exacta, and bet #7 Striking Speed to win.