Noel’s Weekend Winners: Debut Kentucky Derby and Oaks Preps at Churchill Downs

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Iroquois Stakes Pocahontas Stakes Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Oaks Jonathan’s Way Owen Almighty Horseplayers gambling betting fillies 2-year-olds juveniles Stilettos Liam in the Dust Kimchi Cat exacta box
Horses break from the starting gate during the 2023 Churchill Downs September meet. (Coady Media)

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

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Six Beginner Betting Tools

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  3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
  4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
  5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
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The brief Churchill Downs September meet is here, and it features a big first Saturday of action with five stakes races on the card including three graded stakes. It’s only September, but two of those stakes races – the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes for 2-year-old males and the Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes for 2-year-old fillies – will officially kick off the respective roads to the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and the 2025 Longines Kentucky Oaks. For this weekend’s winners, let’s delve into these two juvenile races that will begin the long road ahead that leads to next year’s first weekend in May. Both of these events are good betting races and could yield hefty profits if we can come up with the winners. Best of luck.


Saturday, Sept. 14

Churchill Downs, Race 8, $300,000 Pocahontas Stakes, post time 4:25 p.m. ET

weekend Television schedule

Friday, Sept. 13: 1-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, Sept. 14: 9:30-10:55 a.m. and 12:30-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, Sept. 15: 10-10:50 a.m., 1-2 p.m. and 5-5:30 p.m. on FS2; 2-5 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on FanDuel TV

An overflow field of 14 juvenile fillies is ready to line-up to go one mile in the Pocahontas Stakes in what will be a stretchout for most of the runners in the field. If this race were a sprint, the definite horse to beat would be #13 Kimchi Cat, who comes in off two big wins at Saratoga including one of the most impressive 2-year-old wins of the Spa season last time out: taking the 5 ½-furlong, $150,000 Bolton Landing Stakes by 3 ½ lengths with an 84 Beyer Speed Figure. Kimchi Cat needs to be included on all exotics tickets, but let’s wait and see how she handles this 2 ½-furlong stretchout before we jump on the bandwagon in a race like this. #12 Stilettos, meanwhile, also comes into this race off two straight wins including a stakes win in her last race when she fought off Rich City Girl, a next-out Kentucky Downs winner from trainer Larry Rivelli, to win the $129,505 Ellis Park Debutante Stakes in a promising distance progression at seven furlongs. This one-mile stakes is the next logical spot for Stilettos and she looks capable based on her strong finish when she extended the margin of victory in deep stretch last time out. Several horses in the field are exiting their maiden wins, and perhaps the best of them in terms of their chances in this one-mile spot is #14 Liam in the Dust, a filly who was bet down to even-money in her career debut last time and delivered with an impressive 2 ¼-length win after winning a duel for the lead at seven furlongs in an effort that signals good things are to come at longer distances just like the one-mile test here.

The Play: Bet on #12 Stilettos (4-1) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes with #13 Kimchi Cat (9-2) and #14 Liam in the Dust (15-1).


Churchill Downs, Race 10, $300,000 Iroquois Stakes, post time 5:29 p.m. ET

The Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes is the first step on the road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and not surprisingly has drawn a promising 12-horse field of colts that will try to show their ability to go one mile on Sept. 14 on the same Churchill Downs track where they hope to run for the roses on the first Saturday of next May. #5 Owen Almighty was far from a secret in his two starts so far when he beat Churchill Downs maidens by 3 ½ lengths at first asking at 7-5 odds, and then in his 4 ¾-length win last time in the $175,000 Ellis Park Juvenile when he was again heavily favored at 0.67-1 odds in a race where he drew clear after winning a multi-horse scrum for the lead. Owen Almighty handled the stretch from 5 ½ furlongs to seven furlongs with flying colors and is a great candidate to handle this one-mile distance around one turn. Many of the challengers in the Iroquois field are exiting their maiden wins and all are hoping to take the next big step in this race, but the one of them with a strong leg up on the others is #10 Jonathan’s Way, who got pinched back at the break of a six-furlong sprint at Saratoga but then rallied from off the pace to circle the field and crush maidens by 4 ¼ lengths. If he can translate that kind of ability from six furlongs to one mile in this race, he will be a handful to try and beat.

The Play:  Bet #10 Jonathan’s Way (9-2) to win and box him in the exacta with #5 Owen Almighty (5-2).

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