
2025 Kentucky Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down for March 18
Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.
Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
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Six Beginner Betting Tools
Saturday spearheads a big weekend in horse racing as tracks host various prep races on the road to the upcoming Breeders’ Cup, and nowhere has a bigger Saturday planned than Santa Anita Park. The “Great Race Place” will host the inaugural California Crown Day, a loaded program of racing and wagering topped by the $1 million, Grade 1 California Crown Stakes presented by SirDavis American Whisky (formerly the Awesome Again Stakes) plus four other important stakes. For this weekend’s winners, let’s focus on the featured California Crown Stakes, plus one of the best races on the undercard, the $750,000 California Crown Eddie D Stakes Presented by FanDuel, a downhill turf sprint with a wide-open 11-horse field. If we can cash in these two key races late on the card, we should go home winners this Saturday at Santa Anita. Best of luck.
Santa Anita Park, Race 8, $750,000 California Crown Eddie D Stakes Presented by FanDuel, post time 7:00 p.m. ET
Santa Anita’s 6 ½-furlong downhill turf course takes center stage in the Grade 2 California Crown Eddie D Stakes, which has drawn an 11-horse field for what shapes-up to be a difficult handicapping puzzle. The horse to beat is East Coast invader #11 Big Invasion, as he drew an advantageous outside post for turf sprint ace trainer Christophe Clement. This horse finished second by a neck to Nobals in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Big Invasion appeared to be out of best form earlier this season, but he rebounded nicely with a win in the $150,000 Harvey Pack Stakes at Saratoga last time out. This race’s 6 ½-distance seems to be his only hurdle, but if there’s any place where Big Invasion should be able to get the added distance, it’s going down the hill at Santa Anita. The other big contender at appealing morning-line odds will be #5 King of Gosford, who showed a strong affinity for this course earlier this year with three SA turf sprint wins in a row including two stakes wins. He exits a pair of bottom-building route races, and now returns to what he does best on the downhill sprint course. Finally, don’t overlook #2 First Peace, who won a stakes race at one mile two races ago at Del Mar and now gets back to what is arguably his best trip going 6 ½ furlongs down the hill at Santa Anita.
The Play: Bet #11 Big Invasion (3-1) to win and use him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #2 First Peace (4-1) and #5 King of Gosford (15-1).
Santa Anita Park, Race 9, $1,000,000 California Crown Stakes Presented by SirDavis American Whisky, post time 7:30 p.m. ET
Saturday’s much anticipated feature race at Santa Anita will be the Grade 1 California Crown, which has drawn a field of seven horses set to go 1 1/8 miles hoping to punch their tickets to next month’s $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic, or in some cases perhaps the $2 million Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. One that might be pointing to the Dirt Mile that should make a big splash in this race is #3 National Treasure, who is one of three Bob Baffert trainees in this compact field. National Treasure flopped in the mud last time in the Whitney Stakes at Saratoga, but he has never run his best on wet tracks and is perfectly set-up to rebound here on a fast track. The only troubling concern when it comes to National Treasure, however, is his 0-for-5 career record at Santa Anita. That opens the door for Baffert’s other top hope in this race, #5 Muth, who is a 3-year-old that will be facing older horses for the first time but could be ready and able to handle this assignment. Muth loves Santa Anita with three wins in four prior races here including last fall’s Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes and January’s Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes. The only loss was a respectable second in last fall’s FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA. Muth showed his quality with a win earlier this year in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby when he decisively beat next-out Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve winner Mystik Dan by 6 ¼ lengths in a race held at 1 1/8 miles, the same distance as the California Crown. Muth missed much of this season, but he won his return prep race last time in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar in an effort that sets him up nicely for a triumph Saturday. The third main contender in this spot in terms of exactas and trifectas is #6 Senor Buscador, the winner of the $20 million Saudi Cup earlier this year at this same distance. Senor Buscador is a stone cold closer who comes from far back behind the leaders, but he seems guaranteed to get a favorable pace to chase in the California Crown. Senor Buscador lost a sprint prep last time but was always pointing for this race at this distance. If the speed horses set too fast a pace and start to struggle in the stretch, they may not be able to hold off Senor Buscador.
The Play: Bet on #5 Muth (2-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #3 National Treasure (8-5) and #6 Senor Buscador (6-1).