The $350,000, Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run Stakes Saturday at Keeneland drew a quality field of 10 fillies, five of which have won stakes in one or both of their most recent races. Leading that group is Grade 3 Fasig-Tipton Dogwood Stakes winner My Mane Squeeze, boasting a 6-for-12 career record and nearly $1 million in career earnings.
Emery brings a 4-for-6 record into the Raven Run including a win in the Grade 3 Victory Ride Stakes this summer followed by a runner-up effort in the Grade 1 Test Stakes. Fibber won the Audubon Oaks one race before finishing second to My Mane Squeeze in the Dogwood and fits with these. Twirling Queen moves to dirt off a pair of stakes wins on the grass in the Mamzelle Stakes and Coronation Cup Stakes. Haulin Ice won the Azalea Stakes in July but then then ran poorly when seventh in the much tougher Grade 2 Charles Town Oaks one month later. Miuccia won the Game Face Stakes in June before a posting a runner-up effort behind Haulin Ice in the Azalea and a third-place finish in the Grade 3 Prioress Stakes. V V’s Dream is winless in six races since taking the Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes in September 2023 but has finished third in three of her last four starts, all stakes races. Riperton finished second in the Debutante Stakes last summer and is stepping back into stakes company off a runner-up effort behind Mink’s Palace, whose only previous try in a stakes race resulted in a fourth-place effort in the Audubon Oaks. Uno Le rounds out the field, stepping way up in class off a maiden win in only the second start of her career.
Top Contenders:
My Mane Squeeze has won six of 12 races overall, but around one turn she has won six of nine. Her best distance is the seven-furlong trip of the Raven Run Stakes, as evidenced by her victory in the Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes Presented by Sysco in May when she earned a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure. My Mane Squeeze came close to that triple-digit mark in her most recent race four weeks ago when she won the Dogwood Stakes by five lengths, earning a 96 figure which could have been higher had she needed to run faster to win. Prior to the Dogwood, My Mane Squeeze finished second in the Charles Town Oaks at seven furlongs, but that race was run around two turns. Jockey Luis Saez has been aboard for both of her significant wins this spring and summer and rides back, having chosen to ride this filly over Twirling Queen, who he has ridden to three wins this year. As such, My Mane Squeeze appears bound for another graded stakes win.
Fibber was no match for My Mane Squeeze in the Dogwood as she was 2 ½ lengths behind her rival with an eighth of a mile to run and five lengths behind at the wire. Fibber won a highly rated allowance race in June, two races before the Dogwood – earning a career best 102 figure in the process – and then won the Audubon Oaks at the distance of the Raven Run easily by two lengths with a 95 figure. Although she regressed to an 86 figure in the Dogwood, Fibber has a shot to be competitive with My Mane Squeeze if she runs as fast as she did in June. Even if she doesn’t win, this filly is highly probable to finish second or third considering she has never finished worse than third in nine career dirt sprint races.
Haulin Ice apparently didn’t like the two-turn distance of the Charles Town Oaks, fading to seventh after racing fourth for most of the race. Prior to that she won the seven-furlong, one-turn Azalea Stakes and earned a career-best 98 figure, bringing her career record around one turn to four wins and three runner-up finishes from seven races. When she returns to one turn Saturday, Haulin Ice may also return to highly competitive form.
Emery has won four of six starts, all around one turn. One of those wins came in the Leslie’s Lady Stakes at the seven-furlong distance of the Raven Run in June. Since that race was run at Churchill Downs, we can compare it to the effort My Mane Squeeze put forth in the Eight Belles Stakes in May. Emery earned a 98 figure and My Mane Squeeze earned a 100 figure at the same distance. In her two subsequent races, Emery won the Victory Ride Stakes with a 98 figure and finished second in the Test Stakes with a 99 figure. Both of those were strong efforts, but not so strong she that should be favored over My Mane Squeeze in this race – nor were those two efforts any better than the top recent efforts put forth by Fibber and Haulin Ice, who are likely to go to post at higher odds than 7-5 morning-line favorite Emery.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Mink’s Palace (97), Miuccia (103), Riperton (97), Twirling Queen (98), Uno Le (84) and V V’s Dream (95).
Win Contenders:
My Mane Squeeze
Fibber
Haulin Ice
Emery
Superfecta
4-7-6-5
4-7-6-5
$16
Superfecta
4-7-6-5
4-7-6-5
$16
