The $150,000, Grade 3 Salvator Mile Stakes is one of four excellent stakes races on what is known as Haskell Preview Day at Monmouth Park. This race features a field of eight and seven of them are previous stakes winners.
Among the field, Shirl’s Speight leads in career earnings with $1.4 million. Nearly all of that was earned on grass and his last win was 26 months ago in April 2022. Next in the group in terms of success and earnings is Bright Future, winner of the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup last September, who makes his return to the races following seven months off. In terms of recent success, Oscar Eclipse won the Sir Shackleton Stakes in March at seven furlongs while Coastal Mission was victorious at the same distance in the Frank Y. Whitely Stakes in April. Artorius won the Curlin Stakes in the summer of 2022 and won an allowance level race in his most recent start last month. Movisitor won the Crowd Pleaser Stakes last June and also enters the Salvator Mile off an allowance-level win. Stage Raider won the R. A. Cowboy Jones Stakes last summer and was last seen six months ago finishing sixth in the Tenacious Stakes. Sherlock’s Jewel certainly fits with these as he finished second in the Grade 3 Michelob Ultra Challenger Stakes when last seen in March.
Analysis and top contenders:
Movisitor has one thing going for him which the rest of the field does not, and that is an “early” running style which almost assuredly will see him having the lead shortly after the start. In 11 career races on dirt, Movisitor has earned victory in six. His three most recent wins, in October and December of last year and then again in his most recent race last month, occurred as a result of Movisitor establishing a clear lead from the start, getting into a steady rhythm and never being challenged. The average margin of those three wins was four lengths, and in each race, he was at least six lengths in front of the next horse with an eighth of a mile to run. Having returned from four months off in April in a seven-furlong sprint and finishing eighth, on May 7 Movisitor stretched out to two turns and ran the fastest race he’s ever run, earning a 108 Equibase Speed Figure. That figure is graded stakes quality and can win this Grade 3 race so he is the one to catch, and to beat, given it is likely he will run even better in his third race and second route race following the layoff.
Sherlock’s Jewel may be one of only a couple of horses with a chance of catching lone front runner Movisitor in this situation. He has won two of his last three races and finished second in the other, that being the Challenger Stakes in March when last seen. Sherlock’s Jewel earned 106, 102 and 101 figures in those three races and in his last two starts he was third with a quarter mile to run. The winner of the Challenger returned to win the Oaklawn Handicap after that and earned a 114 figure, so it is possible Sherlock’s Jewel may run the best race of his career in this year’s Salvator Mile.
Artorius started his career two years ago in fine style, winning the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga that summer with a 101 figure. Decently regarded in the Travers Stakes one month later, he finished sixth then after a fourth-place effort he was given eight months to mature. He only made two starts last year, finishing fourth in the 2023 Salvator Mile then third, then was off for another nine months. This year Artorius has shown the spark he had displayed in 2022, with a third-place finish in his comeback race in April, followed by a strong two length win last month. Those two efforts earned 105 and 104 figures, respectively, which if repeated put him right there with the top two contenders in this field.
As to likely betting favorite Bright Future, although he has won four of eight races including the important Jockey Club Gold Cup last summer with a 110 figure, he has a few question marks which I believe suggest he will not run that kind of race in this situation. Most importantly, Bright Future returns from seven months off in a two-turn race without a prep race first. Although he did win in his debut, that was a one-turn race, as was the win last April following 10 months off. Neither of those were stakes races, and a Race Lens query to see how horses trained by Todd Pletcher fare when returning in dirt route races off layoffs of six months or greater reveals he has saddled just one winner from his last 10 horses in these situations. Given there are other horses in this field who have run more recently, and run well, I think Bright Future may have his work cut out for him in this race.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is Coastal Mission (111), Oscar Eclipse (105), Shirl’s Speight (105) and Stage Raider (112).
Win Contenders:
Movisitor
Sherlock’s Jewel
Artorius
Pick 4
7-1-7/9-2
7-1-7/9-2
$118
Pick 5
2/5-7-1-7/9-2
2/5-7-1-7/9-2
$242
Pick 6 Jackpot
12-2/5-7-1-7/9-2
12-2/5-7-1-7/9-2
$515
Superfecta
2-8-6-7
2-8-6-7
$101
Pick 4
7-1-7/9-2
7-1-7/9-2
$118
Pick 5
2/5-7-1-7/9-2
2/5-7-1-7/9-2
$242
Pick 6 Jackpot
12-2/5-7-1-7/9-2
12-2/5-7-1-7/9-2
$515
Superfecta
2-8-6-7
2-8-6-7
$101
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